2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin


The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a third term by a narrow 0.85% margin, defeating Republican nominee Eric Hovde.
Third-party candidates Phil Anderson and Thomas Leager were seen as potential spoiler candidates for Hovde in a state that had voted for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. This was the first time that Wisconsin voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Gaylord Nelson was reelected as Republican Richard Nixon carried the state in 1968. The closest of Baldwin's three Senate victories, the race held similarities to Republican Ron Johnson's narrow win in 2022, down to the percentage and raw vote margin by which the incumbents won. It was the closest Senate race in the state since 1914 and the closest election ever for this seat.
Baldwin won only about 4,000 votes more than Kamala Harris, while Hovde received about 55,000 fewer votes than Trump. This likely means that some Trump voters voted for Baldwin or a third-party candidate. While almost all of the state's counties swung Republican, Baldwin improved in Waukesha and Ozaukee.
The primary election took place on August 13, 2024. The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.

Background

No Republican has won this Senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.
The race was considered to be slightly favorable to Baldwin, despite Wisconsin's nearly even partisan lean, with most polls showing Baldwin to be the favorite to win.
Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and a Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than 1% and only a plurality.
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other Senate seat. However, Democrats had seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. senator

    Endorsements

Fundraising

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Fundraising

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		David
Clarke		Mike
Gallagher		Eric
Hovde		Scott
Mayer		Tom
Tiffany		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2023503 ± 4.4%52%–7%6%–36%
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2023503 ± 4.4%51%–10%––39%
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2023503 ± 4.4%52%––6%–42%
Public Policy Polling June 5–6, 2023507 ± 4.4%40%20%3%–10%27%
Public Policy Polling June 5–6, 2023507 ± 4.4%45%26%–––29%

Results

Independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Phil Anderson, realtor, former chair of the Wisconsin Libertarian Party, and perennial candidate
  • Thomas Leager, lobbyist

    General election

Predictions

Post-primary endorsements

Debates

Polling

Aggregate polls

Tammy Baldwin vs. Mike Gallagher

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tammy
Baldwin 		Mike
Gallagher 		Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates May 23–25, 2023500 ± 4.4%47%46%7%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates May 23–25, 2023500 ± 4.4%42%46%12%

Tammy Baldwin vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tammy
Baldwin 		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates May 23–25, 2023500 ± 4.4%40%43%17%

Fundraising

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Despite losing the state, Hovde won six of eight congressional districts.

Aftermath

The election was widely called for Baldwin by most news outlets, due to her 30,000-vote lead. On November 12, Hovde contested the results and considered requesting a recount. He believed there were voting inconsistencies on the ballot and criticized how absentee ballots were counted in Milwaukee. His criticisms on election integrity received widespread condemnation with calls to concede the race, which he did on November 18. Hovde decided not to request a recount due to potential challenges to do so, while he continued to criticize how absentee votes were counted.