2024 United States Senate election in Arizona



The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego won his first term in office, defeating Republican former news anchor Kari Lake. He succeeded independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.
Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the Senate. Gallego ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024. Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the favorite to win. Gallego defeated Lake by 2.41 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting between the presidential and senatorial races.
Gallego outperformed Kamala Harris by the fourth-largest margin among Democratic Senate candidates in 2024, and the largest margin for a non-incumbent. Gallego particularly benefitted from ticket splitting among Hispanics, who according to exit polls gave Gallego 60% of their votes, compared to 54% for Harris. Specifically, Gallego received 93,475 more votes than Harris, while Lake received 174,481 fewer votes than Donald Trump. This election marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona.
This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988. Gallego also became the first Latino elected to the Senate from Arizona, a state with a large Latino population. This was the first time since 2006 that any candidate won a majority of the vote in this seat.

Background

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6–3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.

Democratic primary

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus.

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego		Alexander
Keller		OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 2023571 –48%6%6%40%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kate
Gallego		Ruben
Gallego		Kathy
Hoffman		Regina
Romero		Kyrsten
Sinema		Greg
Stanton		Undecided
Data for Progress January 21–24, 2022673 ± 4.0%–74%––16%–10%
Data for Progress January 21–24, 2022673 ± 4.0%–66%––17%–17%
Noble Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021229 ± 6.5%–47%––24%–29%
Noble Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021229 ± 6.5%––44%–24%–32%
Noble Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021229 ± 6.5%––––25%47%28%
Data for Progress October 8–10, 2021467 ± 5.0%9%23%–9%19%13%26%
Data for Progress October 8–10, 2021467 ± 5.0%60%–––25%–15%
Data for Progress October 8–10, 2021467 ± 5.0%–62%––23%–15%
Data for Progress October 8–10, 2021467 ± 5.0%–––55%26%–19%
Data for Progress October 8–10, 2021467 ± 5.0%––––24%59%17%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Abe
Hamadeh		Kari
Lake		Mark
Lamb		Jim
Lamon		Blake
Masters
Robson		Brian
Wright		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 25–31, 20231,010 ± 3.1%–40%14%–10%–4%–33%
Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 2023667 ± 3.7%–42%11%2%7%–2%–28%
J.L. PartnersApril 10–12, 2023550 ± 4.2%4%38%8%3%7%10%–2%29%

Green primary

The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns. A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Eduardo Heredia Quintana , chair of the Pima County Green Party

Eliminated in primary

Independents

Candidates

Declined

General election

Campaign strategy

Gallego's campaign emphasized his military service record, highlighting his deployment to Iraq as a Marine Corps infantryman. His campaign positioned his military credentials as evidence of his ability to work across party lines and appeal to independent voters. Lake's campaign focused on her alignment with Trump and emphasized border security and election integrity issues.

Polling

Aggregate polls

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego 		Kari
Lake 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports February 21–26, 20241,000 ± 3.0%33%37%21%2%7%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 16–19, 20241,000 ± 3.0%36%30%21%–13%
Noble Predictive InsightsFebruary 6–13, 20241,002 ± 3.1%34%31%23%–12%
J.L. Partners January 29 – February 1, 2024500 –39%40%13%–8%
Public Policy Polling January 5–6, 2024590 ± 4.0%36%35%17%–12%
VCreek/AMG December 1–8, 2023694 ± 3.7%35%41%16%1%7%
Tulchin Research November 13–20, 2023800 ± 3.5%39%34%17%6%4%
Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 25–31, 20231,010 ± 3.1%39%33%29%––
Cygnal October 24–25, 2023600 ± 4.0%36%37%15%–11%
McLaughlin & Associates October 24, 2023–± 4.4%41%37%17%–5%
National Research Inc. October 8–9, 2023400 ± 4.9%33%37%19%–10%
Public Policy Polling October 6–7, 2023522 ± 4.3%41%36%15%–8%
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 13–17, 20231000 ± 3.1%34%25%26%–15%
Public Policy Polling April 18–19, 2023559 –42%35%14%–9%
Noble Predictive InsightsJanuary 31 – February 9, 20231,000 ± 3.1%34%26%19%–21%
Normington Petts January 18–23, 2023800 ± 3.5%36%36%24%––
Blueprint Polling January 5–8, 2023618 ± 3.9%32%36%14%–19%
Public Policy Polling December 21, 2022678 ± 3.8%40%41%13%–6%
-December 21, 2022678 ± 3.8%-----
-December 21, 2022678 ± 3.8%-----

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego 		Kari
Lake 		Generic
independent		Undecided
The Bullfinch GroupMarch 29 – April 3, 2024600 ± 4.0%41%41%10%8%

Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego 		Doug
Ducey 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Undecided
Noble Predictive InsightsJanuary 31 – February 9, 20231,000 ± 3.1%38%34%–28%
Noble Predictive InsightsJanuary 31 – February 9, 20231,000 ± 3.1%32%27%17%23%
Normington Petts January 18–23, 2023800 ± 3.5%37%31%27%5%

Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego 		Blake
Masters 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 6–7, 2023522 ± 4.3%41%31%17%11%
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 13–17, 20231000 ± 3.1%44%36%–20%
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 13–17, 20231000 ± 3.1%32%24%28%16%
Noble Predictive InsightsJanuary 31 – February 9, 20231,000 ± 3.1%43%32%–26%
Noble Predictive InsightsJanuary 31 – February 9, 20231,000 ± 3.1%33%24%22%21%

Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego 		Karrin Taylor
Robson 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Undecided
Noble Predictive InsightsJanuary 31 – February 9, 20231,000 ± 3.1%36%32%–32%
Noble Predictive InsightsJanuary 31 – February 9, 20231,000 ± 3.1%31%24%21%25%

Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego 		Mark
Lamb 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Undecided
Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 25–31, 20231,010 ± 3.1%36%32%32%0%
Public Policy Polling October 6–7, 2023522 ± 4.3%40%31%16%13%
Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 20231,337 ± 2.6%42%42%–16%
Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 20231,337 ± 2.6%36%29%21%15%
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 13–17, 20231000 ± 3.1%40%36%–24%
Noble Predictive InsightsJuly 13–17, 20231000 ± 3.1%33%25%24%18%
Public Policy Polling April 18–19, 2023559 –43%33%15%9%

Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego 		Jim
Lamon 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 18–19, 2023559 –43%27%16%14%

Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego 		Brian
Wright 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Undecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 20231,337 ± 2.6%41%38%–21%
Emerson CollegeAugust 2–4, 20231,337 ± 2.6%37%25%26%12%

Results

On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona. On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well.

By congressional district

Gallego won five of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.
DistrictGallegoLakeRepresentative elected
52%47%David Schweikert
45%53%Eli Crane
73%24%Ruben Gallego
73%24%Yassamin Ansari
56%41%Greg Stanton
43%55%Andy Biggs
51%46%Juan Ciscomani
63%33%Raúl Grijalva
45%53%Debbie Lesko
45%53%Abraham Hamadeh
38%60%Paul Gosar