Reagan Democrat


A Reagan Democrat is a traditionally Democratic voter in the United States, usually working class Americans who supported Republican presidential candidates Ronald Reagan in the 1980 and/or the 1984 United States presidential elections, and/or George H. W. Bush in the 1988 United States presidential election. The term remains part of the lexicon in American political jargon because of Reagan's continued widespread popularity among a large segment of the electorate.

Overview

During the 1980 election a dramatic number of voters in the United States, disillusioned with the economic malaise of the 1970s and the presidency of Jimmy Carter, supported Reagan, a former Democrat and California governor. Reagan's optimistic tone managed to win over a broad set of voters to an almost unprecedented degree across the board but did not make particular demographic inroads with Democratic voters, with the possible exception of national security voters.
The term Reagan Democrat is sometimes used to describe moderate Democrats who are more conservative than liberal on certain issues like national security and immigration. The term Reagan Democrat also refers to the vast sway that Reagan held over the United States [House of Representatives|House of Representatives] during his presidency, even though the house had a Democratic majority during both of his terms. The term also hearkens back to Richard Nixon's silent majority, a concept that Reagan himself used during his political campaigns in the 1970s.
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg issued a study of Reagan Democrats, analyzing white ethnic voters in Macomb County, Michigan, just north of Detroit. The county voted 63 percent for John F. Kennedy in 1960 but 66 percent for Reagan in 1984. He concluded that Reagan Democrats no longer saw the Democratic Party as champions of their working-class aspirations but instead saw them as working primarily for the benefit of others: the very poor, feminists, the unemployed, African Americans, Latinos, and other groups. In addition, Reagan Democrats enjoyed gains during the period of economic prosperity that coincided with the Reagan administration following the malaise of the Carter administration. They also supported Reagan's strong stance on national security and opposed the 1980s Democratic Party on such issues as pornography, crime, and high taxes.
Greenberg periodically revisited the voters of Macomb County as a barometer of public opinion until he conducted a 2008 exit poll that found "nearly 60 percent" of Macomb County voters were comfortable' with Mr. Obama", drawing the conclusion that Macomb County had "become normal and uninteresting" and "illustrates America's evolving relationship with race". As such, Greenberg stated in an op-ed for The New York Times: "I'm finished with the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County in suburban Detroit after making a career of spotlighting their middle-class anger and frustrations about race and Democratic politicians." Obama ultimately won Macomb County by a comfortable 53–45% margin that year, the same margin he won nationally. In 2016, Macomb County voted for Donald Trump, and did so again in 2020 and 2024.
Reagan biographer Craig Shirley wrote extensively about Reagan Democrats. His 1980 election account "Rendezvous with Destiny" clearly distinguishes the appearance of blue-collar crossovers for Reagan during the 1980 Wisconsin primaries at a Reagan event in Milwaukee's "ethnic Mecca" Serb Hall. He writes: "A young Democrat, Robert Ponasik, stood on a chair furiously waving a handmade sign that proclaimed, 'Cross Over for Reagan'. Of the reaction to Reagan in Serb Hall, Lynn Sherr of ABC reported, 'In judging from the way they showed up at a long-time Democratic meeting hall ... a large number of blue-collar voters could go for Reagan.

Reagan Democrats in the 1990s

The demographic shift that Reagan tapped into continued into the 1990s after he left office. The Democrats responded with new themes. This is evidenced by the rise of Bill Clinton to the presidency during the 1992 presidential election. In that campaign, candidate Clinton billed himself as "a different kind of Democrat", and forswore many older Democratic Party policies in favor of centrist Third Way policies that were championed by the Democratic Leadership Council in hopes of reconnecting with many working-class voters who had voted Republican in presidential campaigns since 1968—the silent majority of Nixon and the Reagan Democrats.
Many self-styled Reagan Democrats claim to be fiscal conservatives but still support many aspects of the core programs of the New Deal and the Great Society while also supporting Reagan's strong defense policies and his optimism in American culture. They still voted for Democratic politicians in the legislative and state elections until mid-1990s. Some elements of the Tea Party movement fit this sketch but many other independents and Democrats could fall into the same category as well. One of the most prominent self-styled Reagan Democrats includes the one-time Virginia Senator Jim Webb, whom columnist David Paul Kuhn asserts is the quintessential Reagan Democrat and one of the last of an "endangered species" within the Democratic Party.
In 2012, conservative commentator George Will, observing the long-term movements of partisanship, said: "White voters without college education—economically anxious and culturally conservative—were called 'Reagan Democrats' when they were considered only seasonal Republicans because of Ronald Reagan. Today they are called the Republican base."

Donald Trump and Joe Biden

The term retained relevance during and after the 2010s, as part of this group defected to Trump in the 2016 presidential election, who narrowly won every swing states in the Rust Belt and became the first Republican presidential candidate to win 2016 [United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania] and Michigan since George H. W. Bush in 1988 and also became first Republican presidential candidate to win Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Since 1980, all of these Rust Belt states always voted for the winner of the U.S. presidential election except for Republican president George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 in which he did not carry any three of these Rust Belt states at least once. All of these states voted for Republican president Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, but voted for Democratic presidents Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, as all three were once blue-leaning states, which were formerly part of the "blue wall" in the six consecutive presidential elections from 1992 to 2012. Most recently, all of these Rust Belt states became swing states and narrowly voted for Republican president Donald Trump in 2016, Democratic president Joe Biden in 2020, and again, Republican president Donald Trump in 2024.
Following the 2016 election, which saw many Rust Belt counties turn to Trump, a Republican strategist said that the working-class Reagan Democrats who favored Trump in 2016 should now be called "Trump Republicans". Conversely, it has been suggested that Reagan Democrats did not necessarily swing the Rust Belt states in 2016 but rather that Democratic voters in those regions stayed home on election day. Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win all three Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since Reagan in 1984.
In a 2021 profile with Politico, Stan Greenberg used the term "Biden Republican" to identify a large bloc of suburban white collar voters who chose Joe Biden over Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Greenberg highlighted that these voters have been reliably Republican for decades but were inclined to vote for the Democratic nominee because of the nativism of Trumpism. Following the 2024 presidential election, Trump narrowly flipped all three Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again. With Trump's Electoral College victories in 2016 and 2024, he became the first Republican presidential candidate to win all three Rust Belt states twice since Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

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