Cyclone Batsirai
Intense Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was a deadly tropical cyclone which heavily impacted Madagascar in February 2022, becoming the strongest tropical cyclone to strike Madagascar since Cyclone Enawo in 2017. It made landfall two weeks after Tropical Storm Ana brought deadly floods to the island country in late January. The second tropical disturbance, the first tropical cyclone, and the first intense tropical cyclone of the 2021–22 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, Batsirai originated from a tropical disturbance that was first noted on 24 January 2022. It fluctuated in intensity and became a moderate tropical storm on 27 January 2022, after which it unexpectedly rapidly intensified into an intense tropical cyclone. It then weakened and struggled to intensify through the coming days due to present wind shear and dry air, where it weakened after some time. Afterward, it entered much more favorable conditions, rapidly intensified yet again to a high-end Category 4 cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson scale while moving towards Madagascar. The storm underwent an eyewall replacement cycle the next day, and fluctuated in intensity before making landfall in Madagascar as a Category 3 cyclone, later rapidly weakening due to the mountainous terrain on the island.
Mauritius and Réunion both experienced damage from the storm, though the effects were relatively minor. 123 deaths were reported due to Batsirai, 121 deaths were reported in Madagascar and 2 deaths were reported in Mauritius. As the storm approached, Madagascar prepared recovery supplies, with worries of significant flooding due to the more barren geography of the country. The United Nations supported preparation and relief efforts for after the storm as well, since millions were expected to be affected by it. Batsirai made landfall in the country early on 5 February, and brought heavy impacts and majorly disrupting power and communication throughout the affected areas. Entire towns were devastated, with thousands of structures being damaged or destroyed. After the storm passed, thousands of people evacuated to temporary shelters. Batsirai left at least 112,000 displaced, and 124,000 homes affected. Overall, Cyclone Batsirai caused a total of US$200 million in damages throughout the storm's life. The same areas were affected a year later by a more powerful cyclone named Cyclone Freddy.
Meteorological history
The origins of Cyclone Batsirai can be traced back to 23 January, when the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported that a tropical low had formed outside of the Australian region, well to the northwest of the Cocos Islands. The Météo-France La Réunion took note of the low, along with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center which designated the low as Invest 96S. The disturbance was located within a marginally favourable environment for further development, with high levels of vertical wind shear, being offset by warm sea surface temperatures of around, therefore the agency gave a low chance for potential tropical cyclogenesis within the next 24 hours. A day later at 00:30 UTC, the agency upgraded the probability to medium after the system gradually improved its convective pattern. Later at 21:30 UTC the same day, the agency issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for Invest 96S, after noting its obscure low-level circulation center. By 25 January, the low briefly entered the Australian region, before exiting by the next day, when the MFR upgraded the low to tropical disturbance status. According to them, the system's convection had shown signs of gradual organization since 24 January. The center had become better defined with low-level clouds converging towards it in a defined circular pattern, suggesting that a closed circulation had formed. The MFR further upgraded it to a tropical depression at 12:00 UTC the same day, as it continued to improve its convective structure along its low-level center. After its convective activity was briefly interrupted after 18:00 UTC due to dry air, The JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 08S at 03:00 UTC the next day.Three hours later, the MFR reported that the system had become a moderate tropical storm, and the Mauritius Meteorological Services named it Batsirai. Between 06:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC, Batsirai underwent rapid deepening and intensified from a moderate tropical storm to an intense tropical cyclone within a span of three hours. According to the MFR, it was favoured by the very small size of the system and its fast movement. It had also established an inner core in diameter. Two hours later, the JTWC also upgraded it to a Category 2 tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson scale, as it developed a small eye at about in diameter.
However, by 18:00 UTC, it started to rapidly decline after its eye quickly collapsed and the cloud tops had warmed. Because of these reasons, the MFR downgraded it to a tropical cyclone. At midnight of 28 January, it was further downgraded to a moderate tropical storm, after further weakening of the convective structure. Three hours later, the JTWC downgraded it back to a tropical storm status.
Batsirai resumed its intensification after being upgraded to a severe tropical storm at 06:00 UTC the next day. Nine hours later, the JTWC upgraded it to a Category 1 tropical cyclone. At 03:00 UTC on 30 January, the JTWC further upgraded it to a Category 2 tropical cyclone after noting a well-defined central dense overcast and a microwave eye feature. The MFR further upgraded it to tropical cyclone status at midday. Three hours later, the JTWC upgraded it to a Category 3 tropical cyclone, as its eyewall had expanded and also developed a wide pinhole-eye. However, this was short-lived, and it weakened to Category 1 status by 03:00 UTC on 1 February, as its pinhole-shaped eye collapsed and its eyewall became disorganized, possibly due to the influence of increasing vertical wind shear. At 15:00 UTC the same day, however, it re - strengthened to Category 2 status, as it managed to consolidate and its eye feature re-appeared on satellite imagery. Three hours later, the MFR upgraded it to an intense tropical cyclone.
By 03:00 UTC on 2 February, the cyclone underwent another round of rapid intensification, intensifying from a Category 2 to a Category 4 tropical cyclone. Its eyewall rapidly organized and also developed a wide eye. After reaching its peak at 12:00 UTC, satellite imagery depicted the formation of another eyewall and signs of weakening. It weakened to a Category 3 system during this time. After completing the eyewall replacement cycle, the storm again briefly intensified into a Category 4 system, with MFR determining that Batsirai's central barometric pressure had rapidly fallen to 934 hPa. It weakened again to a Category 3 system, though it still maintained its overall convective structure.
Gradually weakening due to land interaction with Madagascar, it made landfall at 17:30 UTC on 5 February close to the city of Nosy Varika. MFR declared that Batsirai had degenerated into an overland depression, with the JTWC downgrading it to a tropical storm. The system entered into the Mozambique Channel, and the MFR re-upgraded the system to a moderate tropical storm. By 7 February, it weakened into a remnant low before transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone. Despite fluctuating convective activity, high wind shear, and low sea surface temperatures, due to baroclinic forces, the MFR upgraded the system to a moderate tropical storm once more. It then underwent subtropical transition according to the JTWC, with the agency ceasing advisories on the system on 15:00 UTC of 8 February. MFR issued their last advisory on the storm on 8 February as it again transitioned into a fully post-tropical cyclone, with the system being last noted on 11 February.
Preparations
Mauritius
A class IV cyclone warning was issued on 2 February as Batsirai neared the island.Madagascar
The landfall area of Batsirai was projected to accumulate up to of rainfall. The country's capital, Antananarivo, was predicted to have of rainfall. Search and Rescue teams were deployed in Brickaville, Manakara, and Morondava. The START Network set aside $567,000 to provide assistance. Emergency stock lists were updated by HCT members to help restock humanitarian items. The country's government's disaster management agency worked with UNOSAT as well, and aerial assistance was also prepared as Batsirai approached. Extensive flooding in the east, southeast, and central highlands and major damage were anticipated. The storm was also expected to cause more damage than usual due to the deforestation the country experienced in the last 20 years. The third largest city in the nation, Antsirabe, was forecasted to receive in excess of of rainfall.Batsirai was expected to worsen food scarcities and emergencies in the country. Schools were closed on 4 February, and residents in low-lying and coastal areas were advised to leave. The storm was also feared to hamper the relief effects of Tropical Storm Ana weeks before. A predicted 4.4 million people were expected to be affected by the storm across 14 districts, with 595,000 directly. More than 150,000 inhabitants were expected be displaced. The IFRC launched a fundraiser to help with potential victims of the storm.
Waves of up to were forecasted as the storm closed in on the coast. The United Nations worked with aid agencies to help with preparedness and the aftermath. Humanitarian items were stockpiled, and rescue aircraft were put on standby. A spokesman for the UN's organization OCHA, stated the impact of Batsirai was expected to be "considerable".