Bill James


George William James is an American baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books about baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he named sabermetrics after the Society for American Baseball Research, scientifically analyzes and studies baseball, often through the use of statistical data, in an attempt to determine why teams win and lose.
In 2006, Time named him in the Time 100 as one of the most influential people in the world. In 2003, James was hired as senior advisor on Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox and worked for the team for 17 years during which they won four World Series championships.

Early life

James was born in Holton, Kansas. He joined the United States Army in 1971. After his service, he graduated from the University of Kansas in 1973 with degrees in English and economics, and in 1975 with a degree in education.

Career

''The Bill James Baseball Abstract''s

An aspiring writer and obsessive fan, James began writing baseball articles in his mid-twenties after leaving the United States Army. Many of his first baseball writings came while he was doing night shifts as a security guard at the Stokely-Van Camp's pork and beans cannery. Unlike most writers, his pieces did not recount games in epic terms or offer insights gleaned from interviews with players. A typical James piece posed a question, and then presented data and analysis that offered an answer.
Editors considered James's pieces so unusual that few believed them suitable for their readers. In an effort to reach a wider audience, James began self-publishing an annual book titled The Bill James Baseball Abstract, beginning in 1977. The first edition, titled 1977 Baseball Abstract: Featuring 18 categories of statistical information that you just can't find anywhere else, presented 68 pages of in-depth statistics compiled from James's study of box scores from the preceding season and was offered for sale through a small advertisement in The Sporting News. Seventy-five people purchased the booklet. The 1978 edition, subtitled The 2nd annual edition of baseball's most informative and imaginative review, sold 250 copies. Beginning in 1979, James wrote an annual preview of the baseball season for Esquire, and continued to do so through 1984.
The first three editions of the Baseball Abstract garnered respect for James's work, including a very favorable review by Daniel Okrent in Sports Illustrated. New annual editions added essays on teams and players. By 1982 sales had increased tenfold, and a media conglomerate agreed to publish and distribute future editions.
While writers had published books about baseball statistics before, few had ever reached a mass audience. Attempts to imitate James's work spawned a flood of books and articles that continues to this day.

Post-''Abstract''s work

In 1988, James ceased writing the Abstract, citing workload-related burnout and concern about the volume of statistics on the market. He has continued to publish hardcover books about baseball history, which have sold well and received admiring reviews. These books include three editions of The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.
James has also written several series of new annuals:
  • The Baseball Book was a loosely organized collection of commentary, profiles, historical articles, and occasional pieces of research. James's assistant Rob Neyer was responsible for much of the research, and wrote several short pieces. Neyer went on to become a featured baseball columnist at ESPN and SB Nation.
  • The Player Ratings Book offered statistics and 50-word profiles aimed at the fantasy baseball enthusiast.
  • provides past-season statistics and next-season projections for Major League players and teams, and career data for all current Major League players. Results for the Fielding Bible Awards, an alternative to the Gold Glove Awards voted on by a 10-person panel that includes James, are also included.
  • was a collection of new essays and never-before-seen statistics, as well as profiles of players and teams.
  • Playing off the name of the earlier series, Solid Fool's Gold: Detours on the Way to Conventional Wisdom was a mixed collection of both baseball-related and miscellaneous pieces, culled from the Bill James Online archives.
In 2008, James launched . Subscribers could read James's new, original writing and interact with one another—as well as with James—in a question-and-answer format. The web site also offered new "profiles" of teams and players full of facts and statistics that hoped to map what James has termed "the lost island of baseball statistics". On June 9, 2023, James wrote an article for the site announcing that it would soon be closed in order for James to "focus on other projects".

STATS, Inc.

In an essay published in the 1984 Abstract, James vented his frustration about Major League Baseball's refusal to publish play-by-play accounts of every game. James proposed the creation of Project Scoresheet, a network of fans that would work together to collect and distribute this information.
While the resulting non-profit organization never functioned smoothly, it worked well enough to collect accounts of every game from 1984 through 1991. James's publisher agreed to distribute two annuals of essays and data—the 1987 and 1988 editions of Bill James Presents The Great American Baseball Statbook.
The organization was eventually disbanded, but many of its members went on to form for-profit companies with similar goals and structure. STATS, Inc., the company James joined, provided data and analysis to every major media outlet before being acquired by Fox Sports in 2001.

Innovations

Among the statistical innovations attributable to James are:
  • Runs created. A statistic intended to quantify a player's contribution to runs scored, as well as a team's expected number of runs scored. Runs created is calculated from other offensive statistics. James's first version of it was: Applied to an entire team or league, the statistic correlates closely to that team's or league's actual runs scored. Since James first created the statistic, sabermetricians have refined it to make it more accurate, and it is now used in many different variations.
  • Range factor. A statistic that quantifies the defensive contribution of a player, calculated in its simplest form as : The statistic is premised on the notion that the total number of outs that a player participates in is more relevant in evaluating his defensive play than the percentage of cleanly handled chances as calculated by the conventional statistic fielding percentage.
  • Defensive Efficiency Rating. A statistic that shows the percentage of balls in play a defense turns into an out. It is used to help determine a team's defensive ability. The formula is:
  • Win shares. A unifying statistic intended to allow the comparison of players at different positions, as well as players of different eras. Win Shares incorporates a variety of pitching, hitting and fielding statistics. One drawback of Win Shares is the difficulty of computing it.
  • Pythagorean Winning Percentage. A statistic explaining the relationship of wins and losses to runs scored and runs allowed. The statistic correlates closely to a team's actual winning percentage. Its simplest formula is:
  • Game score is a metric to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game. It has since been improved by Tom Tango.
  • Major League Equivalency. A metric that uses minor league statistics to predict how a player is likely to perform at the major league level.
  • The Brock2 System. A system for projecting a player's performance over the remainder of his career based on past performance and the aging process.
  • Similarity scores. Scoring a player's statistical similarity to other players, providing a frame of reference for players of the distant past. Examples: Lou Gehrig comparable to Don Mattingly; Joe Jackson to Tony Oliva.
  • Secondary average. A statistic that attempts to measure a player's contribution to an offense in ways not reflected in batting average. Secondary averages tend to be similar to batting averages, but can vary wildly, from less than.100 to more than.500 in extreme cases. The formula is :
  • Power/Speed Number. A statistic that attempts to consolidate the various "clubs" of players with impressive numbers of both home runs and stolen bases, the 40–40 club, and even the 25–65 club ). The formula is:
  • Approximate Value. A system of cutoffs designed to estimate the value a player contributed to various category groups to study broad questions such as "how do players age over time".
  • "Temperature gauge" to determine how "hot" a player is, based on recent performance. The gauge has been used in NESN Red Sox telecasts and has provoked mixed reactions from critics.
Although James may be best known as an inventor of statistical tools, he has often written on the limitations of statistics and urged humility concerning their place amid other kinds of information about baseball. To James, context is paramount: he was among the first to emphasize the importance of adjusting traditional statistics for park factors and to stress the role of luck in a pitcher's win–loss record. Many of his statistical innovations are arguably less important than the underlying ideas. When he introduced the notion of secondary average, it was as a vehicle for the then-counterintuitive concept that batting average represents only a fraction of a player's offensive contribution. Some of his contributions to the language of baseball, like the idea of the "defensive spectrum", border on being entirely non-statistical.