2023 Chicago mayoral election

The 2023 Chicago mayoral election was held on February 28, 2023, to elect the mayor of Chicago, Illinois. With no candidate receiving a majority of votes in the initial round of the election, a runoff election was held on April 4. This two-round election took place alongside other 2023 Chicago elections, including races for City Council, city clerk, city treasurer, and police district councils. The election was officially nonpartisan, with winner Brandon Johnson being elected to a four-year term which began on May 15.
Incumbent Lori Lightfoot ran for a second term in office, but placed third in the first round. Former CEO of Chicago Public Schools Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson advanced to a runoff. Other candidates eliminated in the first round included U.S. Representative Chuy Garcia and businessman Willie Wilson. Johnson defeated Vallas in the runoff, in what was considered an upset. This was the first Chicago mayoral election since adopting nonpartisan two-round system elections in which the candidate who won the most votes in the first round did not win the runoff.

Candidates

Disqualified

Frederick Collins, Chicago Police Department officer and candidate for mayor in 2015
Johnny Logalbo, freelance counselor ''''

Withdrew

John Catanzara, president of the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police
Montelle Gaji
Bradley Laborman, actor and realtor
Raymond Lopez, alderman from the 15th ward since 2015 ''''

Declined

The following speculated potential candidates did not run:

Bill Conway, portfolio manager, former assistant Cook County state's attorney, and candidate for Cook County state's attorney in 2020 '
Stacy Davis Gates, president of the Chicago Teachers Union
Arne Duncan, former U.S. secretary of education and former chief executive officer of Chicago Public Schools '
La Shawn Ford, Illinois state representative from the 8th district and candidate for mayor in 2019
Janice Jackson, former chief executive officer of Chicago Public Schools
Mike Quigley, U.S. representative from Illinois's 5th congressional district since 2009 '
Pat Quinn, former governor of Illinois '
Jesse Sharkey, former president of the Chicago Teachers Union
Tom Tunney, alderman from the 44th Ward and vice-mayor
Anna Valencia, Chicago City Clerk since 2017 and candidate for Illinois secretary of state in 2022 ''''

First round

First round campaign

Lightfoot's administration faced criticism due to rising crime rates in Chicago and accusations of covering up police misconduct. During her term, she clashed with members of the Chicago City Council, the Chicago Teachers Union, and Illinois governor J. B. Pritzker's administration. The New York Times remarked that she had an "uncanny ability to make political enemies." However, Lightfoot received praise for her efforts to build affordable housing, repair dilapidated areas of the city, and raise the minimum wage.
A wide field of nine challengers qualified for the ballot. Polling of the race was largely inconsistent but indicated that Lightfoot was in danger of losing re-election and that the candidates with the best chance of making a runoff were Lightfoot, U.S. Representative Chuy García, Cook County commissioner Brandon Johnson, former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas, and businessman Willie Wilson. Polling also showed that Garcia enjoyed heavy support from Latino voters, while a plurality of white voters backed Vallas and a plurality of black voters backed Lightfoot. Vallas and Wilson were considered more moderate than Lightfoot, with García and Johnson being more progressive. However, many organizations in the coalition of labor unions and progressive groups that supported García in his 2015 mayoral campaign instead backed Johnson in 2023.
Lightfoot faced controversy when she emailed public school teachers offering school credit for students who interned on her campaign and when she told South Side residents to either vote for her or not vote at all, while Vallas faced accusations that he lived outside the city. Lightfoot ran ads tying García to Sam Bankman-Fried and Michael Madigan and accusing Johnson of wanting to reduce police budgets. She and García also ran ads accusing Vallas of being an anti-abortion Democrat in name only. García also questioned whether Johnson could be objective as mayor given his close relationship with the Chicago Teachers Union, while Johnson in turn accused García of "abandoning the progressive movement" by adopting a more moderate policy platform in his 2023 campaign.
Several days before the election, Fran Spielman of the Chicago Sun-Times opined that polls demonstrated Paul Vallas to be the top front-runner, being likely to place either first or second in the initial round of voting and advance to a runoff, with Garcia, Johnson, and Lightfoot in contention for the second runoff spot.

First round polling

Only showing polls by more-established polling sources: Bendixen & Amandi, GBAO, Impact Research, Lester & Associates, Mason–Dixon, Ogden & Fry, Public Policy Polling, and Victory Research
Note: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters with letter grades ranging from A+ to F, with A+ being the highest rating and F being the lowest

First round results

The Chicago Board of Elections claimed that early voting turnout in its 2023 municipal election was higher than early voting turnout in any previous Chicago municipal election. Vallas and Johnson advanced to the April runoff.

Runoff

Runoff polling

Only showing polls by more-established polling sources: BSP Research, Emerson, Lake Research Partners, Mason–Dixon, Victory Research

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Brandon Johnson	Paul Vallas	Undecided
IZQ Strategies			April 1–3, 2023	632	± 4%	50%	45%	6%
Victory Research	B/C		March 31–April 2, 2023	900	± 3.27%	45.4%	49.6%	5%
Emerson	A−		March 23–25, 2023	1,000	± 3%	40.6%	46.3%	13%
BSP Research	B/C	Center for the Study of Diversity and Democracy at Northwestern University, Hispanic Federation, Illinois Black Advocacy Initiative, Latino Policy Forum, Latino Victory Project	March 15–23, 2023	1,500	± 2.8%	44%	44%	12%
Victory Research	B/C		March 20–23, 2023	806	± 3.45%	44.2%	46.3%	10%
IZQ Strategies			March 15–16, 2023	680	± 4%	46%	44%	10%
Victory Research	B/C		March 6–9, 2023	806	± 3.45%	39.1%	44.9%	16%
Lake Research Partners	A/B	Johnson campaign	March 2–7, 2023	800	± 3.46%	45%	40%	14%
1983 Labs			March 2–6, 2023	583	± 4.06%	32.47%	43.52%	24.01%
		Vallas campaign	March 1–6, 2023	800	± 3.5%	38%	47%	15%
1983 Labs			February 22–25, 2023	1,458	± 2.57%	30.75%	44.13%	25.12%
Victory Research	B/C		February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	32.6%	46.0%	21.3%
Mason–Dixon	B/C		January 31 – February 3, 2023	625	± 4%	39%	38%

Note: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters with letter grades ranging from A+ to F, with A+ being the highest rating and F being the lowest

Hypothetical runoff scenario polls

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Anthony Beale	Lori Lightfoot	Undecided
Ogden & Fry	B/C	November 13, 2021	457	± 4.5%	24.4%	24.2%	–

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Catanzara	Lori Lightfoot	Undecided
Ogden & Fry	B/C	November 13, 2021	457	± 4.5%	24%	46%	30%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lori Lightfoot	Arne Duncan	Undecided
Ogden & Fry	B/C	November 13, 2021	457	± 4.5%	23%	31%	–

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuy García	Lori Lightfoot	Undecided
1983 Labs			February 22–25, 2023	1,458	± 2.57%	54.35%	23.41%	22.24%
Victory Research	B/C	Illinois Poll	February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	38.6%	33.9	27.5%
Mason–Dixon		B/C	January 31–February 3, 2023	625	± 4%	54%	30%
Cor Strategies			January 26–30, 2023	614	± 3.95%	35%	42%	24%
Impact Research	B/C	International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150	November 10–17, 2022	700	± 3.7%	55%	25%
Public Policy Polling	A–	Chuy Garcia campaign	October 26–27, 2022	616	± 4.0%	43%	34%	23%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Brandon Johnson	Lori Lightfoot	Undecided
Victory Research	B/C	Illinois Poll	February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	37.1%	32.4	30.5%
Public Policy Polling	A–	Chuy Garcia campaign	October 26–27, 2022	616	± 4.0%	23%	41%	36%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lori Lightfoot	Mike Quigley	Undecided
Impact Research	Mike Quigley campaign committee	B/C	March 21–27, 2022	600	± 4.0%	35%	45%	20%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll Sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lori Lightfoot	Pat Quinn	Undecided
Unspecified		Pat Quinn				35%	45%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lori Lightfoot	Paul Vallas	Undecided
1983 Labs			February 22–25, 2023	1,458	± 2.57%	30.04%	49.49%	20.48%
Victory Research	B/C	Illinois Poll	February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	30.1%	49.3%	20.6%
Mason–Dixon	B/C		January 31–February 3, 2023	625	± 4%	35%	48%
Cor Strategies			January 26–30, 2023	614	± 3.95%	40%	40%	20%
Public Policy Polling	A–	Chuy Garcia campaign	October 26–27, 2022	616	± 4.0%	39%	36%	25%
Ogden & Fry	B/C		November 13, 2021	457	± 4.5%	24%	28%	–

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lori Lightfoot	Willie Wilson	Undecided
Victory Research	B/C	Illinois Poll	February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	36.6%	39.6%	23.8%
Public Policy Polling	A–	Chuy Garcia campaign	October 26–27, 2022	616	± 4.0%	43%	35%	22%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuy Garcia	Brandon Johnson	Undecided
Victory Research	B/C	Illinois Poll	February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	42.4%	39.0%	18.6%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuy Garcia	Paul Vallas	Undecided
1983 Labs			February 22–25, 2023	1,458	± 2.57%	38.16	42.76%	19.07%
Victory Research	B/C	Illinois Poll	February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	38.7%	43.9%	17.4%
Mason–Dixon	B/C		January 31–February 3, 2023	625	± 4%	47%	26%
Cor Strategies			January 26–30, 2023	614	± 3.95%	25%	45%	30%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuy Garcia	Willie Wilson	Undecided
Victory Research	B/C	Illinois Poll	February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	39.6%	29.3%	31.1%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Brandon Johnson	Willie Wilson	Undecided
Victory Research	B/C	Illinois Poll	February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	35.4%	28.7%	36.0%

Pollster	Pollster's rating from 538	Poll sponsor	Date administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Paul Vallas	Willie Wilson	Undecided
Victory Research	B/C	Illinois Poll	February 12–15, 2023	806	± 3.45%	49.9%	36.5%	13.6%
Mason–Dixon	B/C		January 31 – February 3, 2023	625	± 4%	43%	36%

Runoff endorsements

Endorsements in bold were made after the first round.