2023 Bavarian state election

The 2023 Bavarian state election was held on 8 October 2023 to elect the members of the 19th Landtag of Bavaria. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria and the Free Voters of Bavaria led by Minister-President of Bavaria Markus Söder. The 2023 Hessian state election was held on same day.
The CSU remained the largest party with only a slight decline to 37%. The Free Voters improved to second place with 16%, their best result to date. The opposition Alternative for Germany was a close third on 15%. The Greens declined to 14%, followed by the Social Democratic Party at a historic low of 8%. The Free Democratic Party fell to 3% and lost their seats.
Overall, the incumbent coalition increased its majority thanks to the Free Voters' gains. The result, amidst a campaign dominated by federal issues such as immigration, was perceived as a blow for the federal government, with its three member parties – the SPD, Greens, and FDP – all suffering losses. The results also indicated the increasing popularity of the far-right AfD, which in previous months had moved into second place in federal opinion polling.

Election organisation

Election date and preparation deadlines

According to the Bavarian Constitution, the election must be held on a Sunday "at the earliest 59 months, at the latest 62 months" after the preceding state election unless the Landtag is dissolved early, in this case the new election shall be held at the latest on the sixth Sunday after the dissolution. The preceding state election took place on 14 October 2018. This would allow an election date between 17 September and 10 December 2023. The elections since 1978 have always taken place between mid-September and mid-October. The Bavarian state government proposed 8 October 2023 as the election date on 15 November 2022 and officially set it on 13 December 2022 after hearing the parties to the state parliament. At the same day elections of the Bezirktags, two District Administrators and some Mayors take place.
The deadline for determining the population figures, which are decisive for the distribution of the 180 Landtag mandates among the seven Bavarian administrative districts and possible changes of the electoral districts, was 14 July 2021. On this basis, the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior had to submit a constituency report to the Landtag until 36 months after the election. This was done on 12 October 2021.
Delegates to the internal meetings of the parties can be appointed at the earliest 43 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 May 2022. The actual district candidates are eligible at the earliest 46 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 August 2022. The parties and other organised electoral groups which have not been represented continuously in the Bavarian Landtag or in the German Bundestag since their last election on the basis of their own election proposals have to notify their intention to participate to the State Election Commissioner by the 90th day before the election. The actual election proposals and any necessary signatures have to be submitted by the 73rd day before the election.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district. Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method. There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" in the constitution. The regional seats are allocated in an open-list fashion, according to votes cast for candidates.
Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes across Bavaria participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts", in each of which one MP is directly elected by getting plurality in the first round.
The number of local "electoral districts" is about equal to the number of seats in the regional "constituencies". In addition, 23 seats may be allocated as levelling seats or to compensate for overhang.

Campaign

Free Voters

In August 2023, the Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on a pamphlet with antisemitic contents that Hubert Aiwanger may have authored and distributed at his high school some 35 years ago as a 17-year-old. Aiwanger admitted to carrying copies in his satchel but denied writing the document. His older brother, a student at the same school at the time, later took responsibility for writing the antisemitic pamphlet itself. The Süddeutsche Zeitung drew some criticism for publishing the story six weeks before the election, without conclusive evidence and without talking to Aiwanger before publication. Bavarian premier Markus Söder demanded that Aiwanger answer 25 questions on the matter, including whether Aiwainger had actively distributed the antisemitic pamphlet. Aiwanger claimed multiple times to "not remember". Aiwanger's responses were heavily criticised as short and evasive.
In his response to a question about other incidents, Aiwanger shortly mentioned that he remembers an unrelated incident in the arts class and noted a caution against breach of secrecy.
Despite the story, Aiwanger's party, Free Voters, saw an increase in support in the polls.

AfD

On 4 October 2023, Tino Chrupalla was at an election campaign appearance in Ingolstadt. Before his speech he collapsed and came to the intensive care unit of a local hospital. What exactly led to the hospitalisation is unclear.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 18th Landtag of Bavaria.

Opinion polls

Party polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CSU	Grüne	FW	AfD	SPD	FDP	Linke	Lead
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size								Lead
		–	37.0	14.4	15.8	14.6	8.4	3.0	1.5	21.2
		985	37.5	15.5	15	14	8	3	1	22
		1,209	37	16	15	14	9	3	–	21
		1,002	37	15	15	14	7.5	4	1.5	22
		1,000	36	15	15	14	9	4	2	21
		2,121	37	15	15	14	9	4	1	22
		1,222	36	16	15	14	9	4	–	20
		1,512	36	15	16	14	9	4	–	20
		1,021	37	15	17.5	13.5	8.5	3	1	19.5
		5,002	38	14	14	13	9	4	2	24
		1,004	36	14	17	14	9	3	1	19
		1,171	36	15	17	13	9	3	–	19
		1,254	36	16	16	12	9	4	–	20
		1,004	41	13.5	15.5	15	6.5	3.5	1	25.5
		1,003	38	13	16	14	8	4	1	22
		5,003	36	15	12	17	10	4	1	19
		1,000	37	14	15	14	9	4	2	22
		1,400	42	12.5	11.5	15	10	4	1	27
		5,502	38	15	12	13	10	4	2	23
		1,892	37	12.5	13.5	18	11	3	1	19
		5,505	39	16	11	12	11	4	2	23
		1,002	39	14	12	14	9	4	3	25
		1,042	40	13.5	10.5	16.5	10	3	0.5	23.5
		1,012	39	14	14	13	9	4	2	25
		1,000	38	15	11	14	11	5	2	23
		5,500	38	17	12	11	12	3	2	21
		1,300	39	14.5	10.5	16	9	4	1.5	23
		1,006	40	15	12	13	9	4	2	25
		5,501	40	16	11	10	11	4	2	24
		1,001	41	14	11	12	10	4	2	27
		1,100	41	12.5	12	12	10	6	1.5	28.5
		1,000	40	15	11	12	11	5	2	25
		1,176	39	16	12	12	11	4	–	23
		5,503	43	17	10	9	10	3	2	26
		1,005	41	16	9	10	11	4	3	25
		1,009	41	15	10	10	10	4	2	26
		5,503	42	17	10	9	10	4	2	25
		1,000	44	14.5	12	9.5	7.5	5	1	29.5
		1,000	40	18	9	11	10	5	2	22
		5,502	41	18	10	9	10	4	1	23
		1,008	43	17.5	12	10	6	4	1	25.5
	8–16 Feb 2023	1,022	42	16	10	9	10	3	–	26
		5,503	39	18	12	10	9	4	2	21
	13–17 Jan 2023	1,040	43	17.5	13	8	8	4	1	25.5
		5,499	42	17	10	9	9	4	3	25
	4–9 Jan 2023	1,190	38	18	10	13	9	4	–	20
	2–9 Jan 2023	1,000	40	19	10	10	10	5	2	21
	28 Dec 2022–3 Jan 2023	1,003	41	18	10	10	9	4	2	23
		5,502	40	16	12	11	9	3	2	24
	2–5 Dec 2022	1,944	43	17.5	11.5	12	7	4	1	25.5
		5,501	41	17	10	10	10	3	2	24
	29 Oct–3 Nov 2022	1,040	42	19	11.5	11	6	5.5	1	23
	19–25 Oct 2022	1,002	39	18	10	13	9	4	2	21
	17–25 Oct 2022	1,083	41	18	11	8	10	3	2	23
	10–17 Oct 2022	1,000	39	20	9	10	10	6	2	19
		5,501	39	21	11	9	10	4	1	18
	7–11 Oct 2022	1,157	37	18	11	12	10	3	–	19
	14–20 Sep 2022	1,004	40	18	10	11	8	6	2	22
		5,511	40	19	9	9	10	4	2	21
	6–13 Sept 2022	1,371	42	21	8	8	6	8	2	21
		5,501	37	20	10	9	10	5	2	17
	1–3 Aug 2022	1,100	41	22	9.5	6	11	5	1	19
		5,505	38	22	10	8	9	5	2	16
	22–29 Jun 2022	1,000	39.5	18.5	10	7	12	6	1	21
	20–27 Jun 2022	1,000	37	20	10	9	10	7	2	17
	15–20 Jun 2022	1,002	40	20	9	8	9	5	2	20
		5,501	39	19	9	8	11	6	2	20
	23 May–3 Jun 2022	1,049	40	20	10	7	9	6	1	20
		2,458	36	18	9	8	15	6	2	18
	27 Apr–13 May 2022	1,235	39	20	11	6	10	5	2	19
	27 Apr–3 May 2022	1,053	40	15	7	7	16	7	2	24
	20–25 Apr 2022	1,005	38	16	8	9	13	7	3	22
		3,009	35	18	10	6	15	8	2	17
	23–28 Feb 2022	1,002	37	15	8	9	13	8	4	22
	18–23 Feb 2022	1,700	36.5	15	8	9	16	7	2	20.5
	13–17 Jan 2022	1,171	36	16	8	10	14	7	–	20
	29 Dec 2021–3 Jan 2022	1,005	35	15	8	10	14	9	2	20
	8–14 Dec 2021	1,430	33.5	16.5	11	8	16.5	8	2	17
	4–11 Oct 2021	1,000	32	15	8	8	20	11	2	12
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	–	31.7	14.1	7.5	9.0	18.0	10.5	2.8	13.7
	21–27 Jul 2021	1,003	39	20	9	8	9	7	3	19
	12–19 Jul 2021	1,000	37	22	10	8	10	8	3	16
	10–17 May 2021	1,016	38	22	9	9	7	6	3	16
	22–27 Apr 2021	1,400	36	24	9	9	9	7	3	12
	24–29 Mar 2021	1,005	40	20	9	9	8	6	3	20
	13–18 Mar 2021	–	37	20	12	7.5	10	6	3	17
	10–15 Feb 2021	1,003	47	18	8	8	8	4	3	29
	21–26 Jan 2021	1,016	46	18	8	7	9	5	3	28
	7–11 Jan 2021	1,000	48	19	8	7	7	3	3	29
	29 Dec 2020–4 Jan 2021	1,005	48	18	7	8	8	4	2	30
	6–13 Nov 2020	–	47	18	8	8	6	4	3	29
	4–9 Nov 2020	1,004	46	18	6	8	8	4	3	28
	7–12 Oct 2020	1,003	46	19	7	8	8	4	3	27
	30 Sep–5 Oct 2020	1,001	45	21	7	8	8	3	3	24
	27–31 Aug 2020	–	46	18	10	8	6.5	4	3.5	28
	17–20 Aug 2020	1,005	47	18	6	7	9	3	3	29
	11–14 Aug 2020	–	43	21	9	7.5	9.5	4	2	22
	5–10 Aug 2020	1,001	47	18	7	7	10	3	3	29
	22–27 Jul 2020	1,004	49	19	5	7	7	3	3	30
	15–22 Jul 2020	1,003	49	20	5	7	7	3	3	29
	11–16 Jun 2020	–	50	16	9	5	8	5	2	34
	9–16 Jun 2020	1,002	48	16	8	6	9	4	3	32
	20–25 May 2020	1,000	48	19	8	5	9	3	3	29
	19–25 May 2020	1,014	46	17	8	7	10	4	3	29
	28 Apr–4 May 2020	1,006	47	15	9	7	10	3	3	32
	20–23 Apr 2020	–	50	13.5	8	6.5	11	4	2.5	36.5
	4–8 Apr 2020	–	49	21	6.5	5.5	8.5	3	2	28
	2–6 Apr 2020	1,003	49	17	8	6	10	–	3	32
		4,535	44.1	19.6	8.1	8.6	9.3	3.1	3.2	24.5
	16–20 Mar 2020	–	46	23.5	7.5	6	7.5	3	3	22.5
		–	40.5	26	9	6.5	8	3	3.5	14
		1,006	38	20	11	11	9	3	4	18
		1,004	36	25	10	10	7	4	3	11
		1,004	38	20	10	10	8	6	4	18
		1,005	37	22	11	10	8	5	3	15
		1,034	36	22	10	11	9	5	3	14
		1,003	37	22	11	9	7	5	3	15
		1,005	37	23	9	9	8	5	3	14
2019 EP election		–	40.7	19.1	5.3	8.5	9.3	3.4	2.4	21.6
		5,016	36.4	20.8	9.7	8.3	10.3	5.8	3.3	15.6
		4,515	38.1	20.3	10.1	8.3	9.5	5.4	3.2	17.8
		1,003	38	23	12	8	6	5	3	15
		1,003	35	21	13	8	9	6	3	14
		1,003	38	18	11	10	9	5	4	20
		–	37.2	17.6	11.6	10.2	9.7	5.1	3.2	19.6

Election result

Aftermath and state government formation

After the election, the state government was again formed as a coalition between CSU and FW. Markus Söder was re-elected Minister-President by the Landtag on 31 October, with 120 votes for, 76 votes against, and two abstentions. He formed the Third Söder cabinet.
AfD politician Daniel Halemba was elected to the Bavarian State Parliament in the 2023 Bavarian state election. On 27 October, three days before the constituent session, an arrest warrant was issued against him. Halemba was arrested on the morning of 30 October 2023 in Kirchheim unter Teck on suspicion of incitement to hatred and the use of signs of anti-constitutional organizations.