2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election


The 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tim Walz defeated the Republican nominee, physician and former state Senator Scott Jensen, winning a second term.
Jensen's advantage in rural Greater Minnesota could not overcome Walz's large lead in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Walz won the election by a comfortable 7.7% margin, narrowly larger than Biden's 7.1% margin in 2020 but smaller than his own previous record of 11.4%. With his win, Walz gave the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party its fourth consecutive gubernatorial victory, the most in the party's history. Furthermore, the DFL held the state house and flipped the state senate, gaining a trifecta for the first time since 2012.

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Bob "Again" Carney Jr., candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020
  • *Captain Jack Sparrow, perennial candidate
  • Joyce Lynne Lacey
  • *Kent Edwards

Withdrawn

Declined

Caucuses and conventions

Caucus

The caucuses took place on February 1, 2022. A caucus is a local meeting where all who intend to vote for the Republican Party are able to select their precinct leadership, participate in a straw poll for governor, write and pass resolutions, and elect delegates to their local Basic Political Organizational Unit. Those who were not elected BPOU delegates could become alternates and fill in for delegates who cannot attend the BPOU convention.

BPOU conventions

A BPOU has boundaries based on the county or state senate district a voter resides in. The majority of these took place in March 2022. Elected delegates of each BPOU attended a convention relating to their district to vote on the resolutions passed at the caucus, complete party business, listen to candidates, and elect delegates to the state convention and their corresponding U.S. House District convention.

State convention

The Republican State Convention was held on May 13–14, 2022, in Rochester. 2,200 delegates were elected statewide to decide the Minnesota Republican Party's endorsement in all statewide offices. The endorsed candidate receives the party's backing, including money and resources, ahead of the August 9 primary. Only one Republican, incumbent governor Arne Carlson in 1994, has won the primary without the party's endorsement.
At the convention, Scott Jensen won the endorsement with 65% of the vote on the ninth ballot, defeating Kendall Qualls. Mike Murphy, Paul Gazelka, and Neil Shah were eliminated on earlier ballots. All the candidates who contested the endorsement pledged to forego the primary if not endorsed.
Qualls soon honored his pledge by announcing his plans to "return to private life." Rich Stanek, the only major candidate who did not compete for the endorsement, did not file for the primary, leaving Jensen without major opposition. He faced two minor candidates in the August primary.

Independents and others

Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Steve Patterson, anti-lockdown activist
  • *Matt Huff
    Eliminated in primary
  • Darrell Paulsen, business consultant, nominee for lieutenant governor in 1998
  • *Edwin Engelmann, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010

Legal Marijuana Now primary

Candidates

Nominee

Other parties

Withdrew

Declined

General election

Campaign

The election's central issues were the economy, rising crime, Walz's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, education, and abortion access following the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
Walz campaigned on his first-term accomplishments, such as middle-class tax cuts, while making abortion rights a prominent focus of the campaign and attacking Jensen on abortion and his COVID-19 skepticism. Jensen attacked Walz over his COVID-19 policies, crime in the Twin Cities, inflation and gas prices, and education performance.
Jensen was criticized for promoting the hoax that schools provided litter boxes to students who identify as furries.

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Scott
Jensen 		Hugh
McTavish 		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAOct. 26–30, 2022836 ± 3.9%51%43%–2%4%
St. Cloud State UniversityOct. 10–30, 2022235 ± 8%56%40%–4%–
Trafalgar Group Oct. 17–19, 20221,091 ± 2.9%45.8%46.3%1.4%2.5%3.9%
Embold ResearchOct. 10–14, 20221,585 ± 2.6%47.0%42.4%1.3%3.3%6.0%
SurveyUSASep. 30 – Oct. 3, 2022604 ± 4.4%50%40%–4%7%
Cygnal Sep. 24–26, 2022600 ± 4.0%47.6%44.2%0.4%3.0%4.8%
Trafalgar Group Sep. 14, 20221,079 ± 2.9%47.7%45.0%0.8%1.7%4.9%
Mason-DixonSep. 12–14, 2022800 ± 3.5%48.0%41.0%–0.8%10.3%
SurveyUSAAug. 30 – Sep. 4, 2022562 ± 4.9%51%33%–4%12%
Gravis Marketing Aug. 17–19, 2022510 ± 4.3%53%36%6%5%–
Cygnal Jul. 18–19, 2022500 ± 4.3%49.8%45.6%––4.7%
Change ResearchJun. 3–8, 20221,551 ± 2.6%41.8%39.8%2.7%6.6%9.0%
SurveyUSAMay 5–10, 2022513 ± 4.9%44%39%–4%13%
SurveyUSAJan. 25–30, 2022501 ± 5.7%43%40%–4%13%
SurveyUSADec. 2–6, 2021506 ± 5.1%48%36%–5%11%

Tim Walz vs. Michelle Benson

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Michelle
Benson 		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAJanuary 25–30, 2022501 ± 5.7%45%37%8%10%
SurveyUSADecember 2–6, 2021506 ± 5.1%47%35%4%14%

Tim Walz vs. Paul Gazelka

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Paul
Gazelka 		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAMay 5–10, 2022513 ± 4.9%43%36%7%15%
SurveyUSAJanuary 25–30, 2022501 ± 5.7%42%37%6%15%
SurveyUSADecember 2–6, 2021506 ± 5.1%47%34%5%14%

Tim Walz vs. Mike Marti

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Mike
Marti 		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSADecember 2–6, 2021506 ± 5.1%47%34%3%15%

Tim Walz vs. Mike Murphy

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Mike
Murphy 		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAMay 5–10, 2022513 ± 4.9%45%35%4%15%
SurveyUSAJanuary 25–30, 2022501 ± 5.7%44%35%7%14%
SurveyUSADecember 2–6, 2021506 ± 5.1%47%36%5%12%

Tim Walz vs. Kendall Qualls

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Kendall
Qualls 		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAMay 5–10, 2022513 ± 4.9%46%34%4%15%
SurveyUSAJanuary 25–30, 2022501 ± 5.7%43%35%6%16%

Tim Walz vs. Neil Shah

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Neil
Shah 		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAMay 5–10, 2022513 ± 4.9%44%34%6%16%
SurveyUSAJanuary 25–30, 2022501 ± 5.7%45%34%7%14%
SurveyUSADecember 2–6, 2021506 ± 5.1%48%31%5%16%

Tim Walz vs. Rich Stanek

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Rich
Stanek 		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAMay 5–10, 2022513 ± 4.9%47%37%5%11%

Tim Walz vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Change ResearchAugust 28–31, 20211,945 ± 2.5%46%44%10%

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Walz and Jensen each won four of eight congressional districts, all of which voted for the same party in the simultaneous House Elections.
DistrictWalzJensenRepresentative
45%52%Brad Finstad
53%45%Angie Craig
59%38%Dean Phillips
68%29%Betty McCollum
81%16%Ilhan Omar
40%57%Tom Emmer
31%65%Michelle Fischbach
44%52%Pete Stauber