2022 Florida gubernatorial election


The 2022 Florida gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Ron DeSantis won re-election in a landslide, and defeated the Democratic Party nominee, Charlie Crist, who served as governor of Florida from 2007 to 2011 as a Republican and later as an independent. No Democrat has been elected governor of Florida since 1994.
With 59.4 percent of the vote, DeSantis won the largest margin of victory in a Florida gubernatorial election since 1982. Significantly, DeSantis won Miami-Dade County, which had been considered a Democratic stronghold and had last voted Republican in 2002, and Palm Beach County, which had not voted Republican since 1986. Crist conceded the election shortly after DeSantis was projected as the winner. DeSantis won 8 counties he lost in 2018.
According to exit polls, DeSantis won 65% of White voters, 13% of Black voters, and 58% of Latinos; of the latter group, DeSantis won 69% of Cubans and 56% of Puerto Ricans. DeSantis also won a majority of Latina women in Florida.
DeSantis's large margin of victory was in part due to him flipping Democratic stronghold Miami-Dade County for the first time since 2002, and Palm Beach County for the first time since 1986, as well as winning Hillsborough, Osceola, Pinellas, and St. Lucie counties for the first time since 2006. This was also the first gubernatorial election since 2006 in which a candidate received over 50% of the vote. His 19.4% margin of victory was the largest since 1982 and the largest for a Republican in state history, compared to 0.4% four years earlier. It was also the first time the governorship was won by double digits since 2002, and the first time it was won by over a million votes.
Significantly, Crist's 40.0% performance was the worst for a Democratic nominee for governor of Florida since 1916, a three candidate race. Republicans won all other statewide races by double digits; this is the first time since the end of Reconstruction that Democrats do not hold at least one of the statewide positions. DeSantis also made large gains among Hispanic voters, becoming the first Florida Republican in decades to win a majority of those voters. He also had a major fundraising advantage over Crist, setting an all-time record for a gubernatorial candidate.
Some analysts believe that this election marked the transition of Florida from being a swing state into a red state. Donald Trump would win Florida in 2024 by 13 percentage points, far exceeding his two prior performances in the state.

Background

To qualify for the ballot in Florida, partisan candidates must first file with the Division of Elections of the Florida Department of State. After filing, a candidate must then qualify for the ballot by a deadline by either paying qualifying fees totaling 6% of the salary of the position sought, or obtaining sufficiently many signatures. Not all candidates who filed to run for governor subsequently qualified to appear on the ballot.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Failed to qualify

Declined

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Charlie
Crist		Nikki
Fried		Other
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsFebruary 7 – June 17, 2022June 20, 202240.0%23.3%36.7%Crist +16.7

Running mate selection

In June 2022, Politico released a shortlist of 18 people who Crist was considering as his running mate. On August 26, four days after Crist won the gubernatorial primary, CBS News reported that he had selected Karla Hernández-Mats, one of the people on the Politico shortlist.

Selected

On shortlist

Independent and third-party candidates

Green Party

Withdrawn

Independent Party

Withdrawn

  • Gizmo Wexler, IT administrator

Libertarian Party

Declared

  • Hector Roos

Declined

Independent candidates

Declared

  • Carmen Jackie Gimenez

Failed to qualify

  • Eugene H. Steele, attorney

Withdrawn

Declined

Write-ins

Declared

General election

Polling

Aggregate polls

Ron DeSantis vs. Nikki Fried

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Fried 		OtherUndecided
Cherry Communications August 4–15, 2022608 ± 4.0%50%43%–7%
University of North FloridaAugust 8–12, 20221,624 ± 3.4%50%43%5%2%
Clarity Campaign Labs July 26–31, 20222,244 ± 2.1%49%43%–8%
Saint Leo UniversityFebruary 28 – March 12, 2022500 ± 4.5%51%27%–22%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group February 23, 20221,064 ± 3.0%50%50%––
University of North FloridaFebruary 7–20, 2022685 ± 3.7%55%32%–12%
Mason-DixonFebruary 7–10, 2022625 ± 4.0%53%42%–5%
Suffolk UniversityJanuary 26–29, 2022500 ± 4.4%51%40%0%9%
St. Pete PollsNovember 18–19, 20212,896 ± 1.8%51%42%–6%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021867 ± 3.3%46%35%4%8%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021842 ± 3.4%50%37%4%7%
Saint Leo UniversityOctober 17–23, 2021500 ± 4.5%46%33%–21%
VCreek/AMG September 23–27, 2021405 ± 4.9%48%36%5%11%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group September 3–5, 20211,144 ± 3.1%52%48%––
RMG ResearchAugust 21–28, 20211,000 ± 3.1%41%38%–21%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,000 ± 3.1%45%36%4%11%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 2021977 ± 3.1%48%38%3%10%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group August 14–18, 20211,000 ± 3.1%46%54%––
Change Research August 14–17, 20211,585 ± 2.5%49%44%–7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research August 4–10, 2021700 ± 3.7%50%40%2%7%
Cherry Communications July 26 – August 4, 2021610 ± 4.0%51%42%–7%
St. Pete PollsAugust 2–3, 20213,952 ± 1.6%45%42%–13%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group June 21, 2021716 ± 3.7%61%39%––
Cherry Communications April 30 – May 8, 2021602 ± 4.0%51%39%–10%
Victory Insights May 4, 2021600 ± 4.1%53%47%––
St. Pete PollsMarch 22–24, 20211,923 ± 2.2%45%45%–10%
Mason-DixonFebruary 24–28, 2021625 ± 4.0%51%42%–7%

Ron DeSantis vs. Annette Taddeo

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis 		Annette
Taddeo 		Undecided
Saint Leo UniversityFebruary 28 – March 12, 2022500 ± 4.5%49%30%22%
Mason-DixonFebruary 7–10, 2022625 ± 4.0%53%37%10%
Saint Leo UniversityOctober 17–23, 2021500 ± 4.5%47%28%25%

Ron DeSantis vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis 		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Clarity Campaign Labs July 26–31, 20222,244 ± 2.1%48%43%9%
Data for Progress September 15–22, 2020620 ± 3.9%42%44%14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Val Demings

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis 		Val
Demings 		Undecided
Cherry Communications April 30 – May 8, 2021602 ± 4.0%53%38%–
Victory Insights May 4, 2021600 ± 4.1%54%46%–

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

DeSantis won 22 of 28 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.
DistrictDeSantisCristRepresentative
73%26%Matt Gaetz
62%38%Neal Dunn
64%35%Kat Cammack
60%39%Aaron Bean
65%34%John Rutherford
68%31%Mike Waltz
60%39%Stephanie Murphy
60%39%Cory Mills
65%35%Bill Posey
50%49%Darren Soto
41%58%Val Demings
41%58%Maxwell Frost
63%37%Daniel Webster
69%30%Gus Bilirakis
58%41%Anna Paulina Luna
47%52%Kathy Castor
59%40%Laurel Lee
61%38%Vern Buchanan
64%35%Greg Steube
69%30%Scott Franklin
69%30%Byron Donalds
30%69%Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
62%37%Brian Mast
48%51%Lois Frankel
50%49%Jared Moskowitz
31%68%Frederica Wilson
47%52%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
70%29%Mario Díaz-Balart
58%41%María Elvira Salazar
64%36%Carlos A. Giménez

Analysis

According to exit polls, DeSantis won 65% of White voters, 13% of Black voters, and 58% of Latinos; of the latter group, DeSantis won 69% of Cubans and 56% of Puerto Ricans. DeSantis' large margin of victory was in part due to him flipping Democratic stronghold Miami-Dade County for the first time since 2002, and Palm Beach County for the first time since 1986, as well as winning Hillsborough, Osceola, Pinellas, and St. Lucie counties for the first time since 2006; this was also the first gubernatorial election since 2006 in which a candidate received over 50% of the vote. His near 20% margin of victory was the largest since 1982 and the largest for a Republican in state history. It was also the first time the governorship was won by double digits since 2002, and the first time it was won by over one million votes.
Significantly, Crist's 40% performance was the worst for a Democratic nominee for governor of Florida since 1916. Republicans won the other statewide races by double digits; this is the first time since the end of Reconstruction that Democrats do not hold at least one of the statewide positions. DeSantis also made large gains among Hispanic voters, becoming the first Republican in decades to win a majority of those voters. He also had a major fundraising advantage over Crist, setting an all-time record for a gubernatorial candidate.