2021 Senedd election

The 2021 Senedd election took place on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to the Senedd. It was the sixth devolved general election since the Senedd was established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Scottish Parliament election, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.
It was the first election in which 16- and 17-year-olds and legally resident foreign nationals were allowed to vote in Wales, the largest extension of the franchise in Wales since 1969. Both changes were a result of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020. It was also the first election for the legislature under its new name – 'Senedd Cymru' or 'the Welsh Parliament' – and thus this election may be called the 2021 Welsh Parliament election, or 2021 Senedd Cymru election, in preference over the shorter name.
Five parties had Members of the Senedd elected at the previous election: Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, the UK Independence Party, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Seven political parties were represented in the Senedd prior to the election. These are the five aforementioned parties and two parties that gained MSs who were elected for – and moved from – other political parties. The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party gained two MSs who were elected for UKIP in 2016, and Propel gained an MS elected for Plaid Cymru in 2016.
The governing Labour Party's share of the constituency vote increased by over 5%, and the regional vote by over 4%, with thirty Labour MSs elected accounting for exactly half of the sixty seats, one more than in 2016 but one short of an overall majority and remaining as the largest party. The Conservatives became the Senedd's second-largest party and the official opposition to the Welsh Government with sixteen MSs elected, five more than their 2016 result. This result is the best that the Conservatives managed to achieve since the Senedd was established. Plaid Cymru slipped down to third place with thirteen MSs elected, one more than in 2016. Coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats lost their single constituency seat from 2016, but gained a regional list seat, keeping their total of one seat, the same as in 2016. UKIP received no seats, down from their seven in the 2016 election. This included seats later transferred to Abolish the Welsh Assembly, who also received no seats.
Voter turnout was 46.6%, a record for a Senedd election.

Electoral system

In elections for the Senedd, using the additional member system, each voter has two votes. The first vote is for a member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. In this election the system achieved a broadly proportional result in the North Wales and Mid and West Wales electoral regions. However, as in previous elections, the large number of constituency seats won by the Labour Party in the South Wales West, South Wales Central and South Wales East electoral regions, when set against the small proportion of available additional regional seats, means that the Labour Party is over-represented by a margin of four seats, when considered on a proportional basis.
Under the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning a Member of the Senedd cannot also be an MP.
This was the first election where 16- and 17-year olds could vote, following the enactment of Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act in January 2020.
The registration deadline for voters in this election was 11:59 pm, 19 April 2021.

Background

The 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was the last of its kind. The newly formed Brexit Party came out on top in Wales. Plaid Cymru, who support full Welsh independence, came second, marking the first time it had beaten Labour in a Wales-wide election. The Brexit Party also formed a parliamentary group in the Assembly made up of the four ex-UK Independence Party members, led by Mark Reckless. A snap general election in the United Kingdom was held on 12 December 2019. Welsh Labour suffered an 8% drop in their vote, losing all their seats in North Wales, except for Alyn and Deeside. Labour ended up losing six parliamentary seats to the Welsh Conservatives in Boris Johnson's landslide victory. These seats included Bridgend, which has been represented on the assembly level by former First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones since the 1999 election. The Conservatives also picked up Brecon and Radnorshire from the Welsh Liberal Democrats.
On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union. This followed a referendum on the matter in which Wales narrowly voted to leave the EU. South Wales has been highlighted by many as evidence that Brexit cut across traditional party allegiances, as the area typically votes overwhelmingly for Labour. The band of eight local authorities covering the Valleys area from Swansea in the west to Torfaen in the east, plus the coastal city of Newport, all voted in favour of Brexit, and all are represented in the House of Commons by Labour MPs, all of whom wished to remain in the EU.
Plaid Cymru campaigned for a Remain vote in the [2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum|2016 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum|referendum on the UK's membership of the EU]. Plaid Cymru later supported, during the final stages of Brexit process, a second referendum on the matter. Plaid argued that there should be a referendum on Welsh independence after Brexit, so that Wales could apply for EU membership. A June 2020 YouGov/ITV Cymru poll concluded that 25% were in favour of independence and 54% opposed. The same poll found that 22% of respondents wanted no devolution in Wales, and that 25% were for abolition of the Senedd, with 48% opposed to abolition. A follow-up YouGov poll in August 2020 concluded that support for Welsh independence had risen to 32%.
On 17 May 2020, Health Minister Vaughan Gething told ITV Wales it was "possible" that the election might not be allowed to happen, because of the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic. The First Minister Mark Drakeford announced on 29 June 2020 that a group with representatives from all of the main parties would look at the arrangements that might have to be in place for the election if COVID-19 restrictions are still required. It would look at campaigning and voting, gathering "views over the summer so that by September, any changes the group feels would be beneficial can be considered and taken forward". There was no consensus to agree if a delay was needed, but all parties agreed on measures to encourage vulnerable voters and others to consider applying for a postal vote and early applications, greater flexibility around the nomination of candidates, postal and proxy voting, and measures to ensure the safe operation of polling stations and count venues. The Wales Electoral Coordination Board said on 5 January 2021 that counting of Senedd election votes cannot be done overnight because of COVID restrictions. The board said that the count "will require more staff and take longer to perform."
The Welsh Government introduced a bill under emergency legislation, Welsh Elections Bill, in January 2021. It gives the Llywydd the power to delay the election by up to six months if the Coronavirus pandemic would make the elections unsafe. The bill was passed on the 10 February 2021 with powers also to introduce early voting and more flexibility with proxy voting.
On 9 March 2021 in a joint British Governments statement ministers said that there will be safety measures in place for May's elections. They encouraged voters to take their own pens or pencils and reconfirmed their aim for elections being conducted on the 6 May 2021. In the three-week review on the 12 March 2021 the First Minister said that the threshold for postponing the election hasn't currently been met. Drakeford also said that leafleting will be able to start from 15 March.
During the pandemic, the Welsh government messaging and laws have been distinct from the UK government's actions in England; this has made the Welsh public more conscious about devolution. The Welsh government only allowed businesses access to the Economic Resilience Fund devolved to them by Westminster if they officially recognised a trade union which could recruit in their workplaces. The Welsh government announced a two-week lockdown to reduce the prevalence of the virus – called a "firebreak" – in line with the other devolved administrations and distinct from the UK government's lockdown in England.
On 11 December 2020, Plaid Cymru announced that they would hold a referendum on Welsh independence within five years if they won a majority. Some observers also believed they would have requested a Welsh independence referendum in exchange for supporting a minority government. Despite being a unionist party, Labour selected three candidates who supported independence.
On 3 February 2021, UKIP leader Neil Hamilton stated that the party would pledge to deliver a referendum on the devolved administrations in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. He later told BBC Radio Wales: "UKIP had its founding principle in getting out of the European Union and now we've done that we can concentrate on reintegrating the United Kingdom... Our slogan in this election is 'scrap the Senedd'."
On 7 March 2021, the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party announced that it would be running candidates in all constituencies in the election, and also said that it would run candidates on the regional list. On 6 April, BBC News reported that Gareth Bennett would not stand for Abolish, with Bennett coming to a mutual agreement with the party to stand as an independent in Cynon Valley whilst still remaining supportive of the party, a decision which left Mark Reckless as the party's only MS. The same day, it was reported that ten prospective candidates for Abolish had also "dropped out" with leader Richard Suchorzewski claiming it was due to, "Welsh Nationalist abuse and fear of reprisals."
On 16 April, it was reported that of the 70,000 16 and 17-year-olds eligible to vote, less than 9,000 were currently registered in six counties, according to figures collected by the Election Reform Society. The deadline to register to vote was Monday 19 April 2021. Figures later compiled by the BBC suggested around 46% of eligible people in this age group were registered to vote by the deadline.

Retiring members

The following MSs did not run for re-election:

Parties

Contesting constituency and regional ballots

Labour, Plaid Cymru, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK stood in all 40 constituencies and all five regional ballots. Five other parties contested all five regions and at least one constituency: Abolish the Welsh Assembly, UKIP, Gwlad, Welsh Green Party and Propel. Llais Gwynedd and Socialist Party of Great Britain stood in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Cardiff Central respectively. Neither party stood in any regional races. Two parties contested some of the regions and at least one constituency: Freedom Alliance and No More Lockdowns.

Parties with representation in the Senedd prior to the election

The five remaining seats were occupied by those independent of political parties.

Contesting regional ballot only

Some parties opted to only contest the regional lists. Two parties – Communist Party of Great Britain and TUSC – contested all five electoral regions. The Welsh Christian Party and the Workers Party of Britain both stood in only one region.

Campaign

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, campaigning took into account health issues. Restrictions were placed on the ability of campaigners to carry out door-to-door campaigning. Campaign rallies were not possible, which affected the impact of candidates who normally do well at these events.
Mark Drakeford was criticised for publishing a leaflet in the English language, without a bilingual one. Joel Williams, Conservative candidate for Cardiff North, got the name of his own constituency wrong on a campaign leaflet. Dwyfor Meirionydd Conservative candidate, Charlie Evans, had to apologise for a tweet praising Llyn Tryweryn, the lake which was created to provide water for Liverpool, immortalised with the slogan Cofiwch Dryweryn.
After the death of Prince Philip on 9 April 2021, all of the main political parties suspended campaigning as a mark of respect. Labour and Plaid Cymru restarted their campaigns three days later.

Constituency nominations

NB: MSs in office before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency	Labour	Plaid Cymru	Conservatives	Liberal Democrats	Abolish	[Wales Wales Green Party\|Green Party\|Green]	UKIP	Reform UK	Others and independents
Constituency
Aberavon	David Rees	Victoria Griffiths	Liz Hill O'Shea	Helen Clarke	Sarah Allen		Tim Jenkins	Dennis May	Ceri Golding Scott Jones
Aberconwy	Dawn McGuinness	Aaron Wynne	Janet Finch-Saunders	Rhys Jones				Rachel Bagshaw	Sharon Smith
Alyn and Deeside	Jack Sargeant	Jack Morris	Abigail Mainon	Chris Twells			Felix Aubel	Richard Purviss	Lien Davies
Arfon	Iwan Wyn Jones	Siân Gwenllian	Tony Thomas	Calum Davies				Andrew Haigh	Martin Bristow
Blaenau Gwent	Alun Davies	Peredur Owen Griffiths	Edward Dawson	Paula Yates	Richard Taylor			Robert Beavis	Mandy Moore
Brecon and Radnorshire	Gethin Jones	Grenville Ham	James Evans	William Powell	Claire Mills	Emily Durrant		John Muir	Sam Holwill Karen Laurie-Parry
Bridgend	Sarah Murphy	Leanne Lewis	Rachel Nugent-Finn	Harvey Jones				Christine Roach	Steven Bletsoe Caroline Jones Geraint Jones
Caerphilly	Hefin David	Delyth Jewell	Steven Mayfield	Steve Aicheler	Steve Jones			Tim Price
Cardiff Central	Jenny Rathbone	Wiliam Rees	Calum Davies	Rodney Berman	Munawar Mughal	Ceri Davies		Julian Bosley	Clem Thomas Brian Johnson Thomas Franklin
Cardiff North	Julie Morgan	Fflur Elin	Joel Williams	Rhys Taylor	Lawrence Gwynn	Debra Cooper		Haydn Rushworth
Cardiff South and Penarth	Vaughan Gething	Nasir Adam	Leighton Rowlands	Alex Wilson	Lisa Peregrine	Helen Westhead	Paul Campbell	Alan Pick	Angus Hawkins Alan Golding Matt Friend David Rolfe
Cardiff West	Mark Drakeford	Rhys ab Owen	Sean Driscoll	Heath Marshall	Lee Canning	David Griffin		Nick Mullins	Captain Beany
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Rob James	Adam Price	Havard Hughes	Monica M French				Karl Pollard
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Riaz Hassan	Cefin Campbell	Samuel Kurtz	Alistair Cameron			Paul Dowson	Peter Prosser	Jon Harvey
Ceredigion	Dylan Lewis-Rowlands	Elin Jones	Amanda Jenner	Cadan ap Tomos		Harry Hayfield		Gethin James	Stephanie Evans
Clwyd South	Ken Skates	Llyr Gruffydd	Barbara Hughes	Leena Farhat	Jonathon Harrington		Jeanette Barton	Mandy Jones
Clwyd West	Joshua Hurst	Elin Walker Jones	Darren Millar	David Wilkins	Euan Mcgivern		Jeanie Barton	Clare Eno	Rhydian Hughes
Cynon Valley	Vikki Howells	Geraint Benney	Mia Rees	Gerald Francis	Martyn Ford			Peter Hopkins	Gareth Bennett
Delyn	Hannah Blythyn	Paul Rowlinson	Mark Isherwood	Andrew Parkhurst			Mary Davies	Aiden Down	Anthony Williams
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Cian Ireland	Mabon ap Gwynfor	Charlie Evans	Stephen Churchman				Louise Hughes
Gower	Rebecca Evans	John Davies	Myles Langstone	Michael Sheehan		Anna Pigott		Byron John	David Erasmus
Islwyn	Rhianon Passmore	Rhys Mills	Gavin Chambers	Oliver Townsend	Mike Ford		Neil Hamilton	James Wells	Kevin Etheridge
Llanelli	Lee Waters	Helen Mary Jones	Stefan Ryszewski	Jon Burree			Howard Lillyman	Gareth Beer	Sian Caiach Shahana Najmi
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Dawn Bowden	Ian Gwynne	Donna Gavin	Jez Becker	Hugh Moelwyn Hughes		George Pykov	Colin Jones
Monmouth	Catrin Maby	Hugh Kocan	Peter Fox	Jo Watkins	Mark Reckless	Ian Chandler		Susan Boucher	Laurence Williams Nick Ramsay
Montgomeryshire	Kait Duerden	Elwyn Vaughan	Russell George	Alison Alexander				Oliver Lewis	Gwyn Evans
Neath	Jeremy Miles	Sioned Williams	Mathew Williams	Iain Clamp	Simon Rees	Megan Poppy Lloyd		Andrew Pryer
Newport East	John Griffiths	Daniel Llewellyn	Gareth Rhys Hughes	Mike Hamilton	Rob Steed		Ben Walker	David Rowlands	Sonya Cary
Newport West	Jayne Bryant	Jonathan Clark	Michael Enea	John Miller		Amelia Womack		Kevin Boucher	Steve Marsh
Ogmore	Huw Irranca-Davies	Luke Fletcher	Nathan Adams	Cameron Shippam	Robin Hunter-Clarke			Glenda Davies
Pontypridd	Mick Antoniw	Heledd Fychan	Joel James	Steven Rajam	Mike Hughes	Ken Barker		Jamie Jenkins	Wanye Owen
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Jackie Jones	Cris Tomos	Paul Davies	Tina Roberts				William Dennison
Rhondda	Buffy Williams	Leanne Wood	Thomas Parkhilll	Jackie Charlton	Ian McLean			Steve Bayliss
Swansea East	Mike Hedges	Rhiannon Barrar	Cameron Brennan	Sam Bennett	Cameron Edwards		Dan Morgan	Darren Rees
Swansea West	Julie James	Dai Lloyd	Samantha Chohan	Chloe Hutchinson	James Cole	Chris Evans		Bernard Holton	Michelle Valerio Katon Bouzalakos
Torfaen	Lynne Neagle	Lyn Ackerman	Gruff Parry	Veronica German			Tom Harrison	Ian Williams	Ryan Williams Matthew Ross-Francome
Vale of Clwyd	Jason McLellan	Glenn Swingler	Gareth Davies	Lisa Davies				Peter Dain	David Thomas
Vale of Glamorgan	Jane Hutt	Richard Grigg	Matt Smith	Sally Stephenson	Stuart Field	Anthony Slaughter		Michael Hancock	Karl-James Langford Alan Coulthard Neill Shah Janet Brocklehurst
Wrexham	Lesley Griffiths	Carrie Harper	Jeremy Kent	Tim Sly	Paul Ashton		Sebastian Ross	Charles Dodman	Aaron Norton
Ynys Môn	Samantha Egelstaff	Rhun ap Iorwerth	Lyn Hudson	Chris Jones				Emmett Jenner

Regional nominations

NB: MSs in office before the election are bolded.
According to the National Assembly for Wales (Representation of the People) Order 1999, "party lists" may include from one to twelve candidates. They are elected "in the order that they are included on that list ".
The list below only shows the first ranks. Elected candidates are highlighted with party colours.

Region	Order	Labour	Plaid Cymru	Conservatives	Abolish	UKIP	Reform UK Wales	Liberal Democrats	Green	Others and independents
Region	Order
Mid and West Wales	1	Eluned Morgan	Cefin Campbell	Tomos Davies	Claire Mills	Jonathon Riley	Gethin James	Jane Dodds	Emily Durrant	Siân Mair Caiach
Mid and West Wales	2	Joyce Watson	Helen Mary Jones	Amanda Jenner	Ray Wood	Howard Lilyman	Roger Lewis	William Powell	Tomos Barlow	Gwyn Wigley Evans
Mid and West Wales	3	Helen Taylor	Elwyn Vaughan	Liz Lesnianski	Jeremy Pugh	Paul Dowson	Louise Hughes	Alistair Cameron	Harry Hayfield	Dennis Morris
Mid and West Wales	4	Ben Gwalchmai	Cris Tomos	Aled Davies	Benjamin Pugh	Ken Rees	Peter Prosser	Stephen Churchman	Marc Pearton-Scale	Samuel Holwill
North Wales	1	Carolyn Thomas	Llyr Gruffydd	Mark Isherwood	Richard Suchorzewski	Dr Felix Aubel	Nathan Gill	Chris Twells	Iolo Jones	Michelle Brown Phil Roberts
North Wales	2	Andy Short	Carrie Harper	Sam Rowlands	Jonathon Harrington	Jeanie Barton	Peter Dain	David Wilkins	Duncan Rees	Aled Gwyn Job
North Wales	3	Diane Green	Elin Walker Jones	Barbara Hughes	William Ashton	Mary Davies	Clare Eno	Tim Sly	Adam Turner	Rhydian Hughes
North Wales	4	Ryan O’Gorman	Paul Rowlinson	Gareth Davies	Craig Search	Jeanette Bassford-Barton	Charles Dodman	Calum Davies	Linda Rogers	Aaron Norton
North Wales	5		Catrin Wagner	Abigail Mainon	Euan McGivern	Sebastian Ross	Emmett Jenner	Andrew Parkhurst		Anthony Williams
South Wales Central	1	Ruba Sivagnanam	Rhys ab Owen	Andrew RT Davies	Lee Canning	Paul Campbell	Jamie Jenkins	Rodney Berman	Anthony Slaughter	Karl-James Langford
South Wales Central	2	Dan De'Ath	Heledd Fychan	Joel James	Martyn Ford	Benjamin Dale	Peter Hopkins	Rhys Taylor	Helen Westhead	Clem Thomas
South Wales Central	3	Maliika Kaaba	Fflur Elin	Calum Davies	Munawar Ahmed Mughal	Clive Easton	Steve Bayliss	Sally Stephenson	David Griffin	Angus Hawkins
South Wales Central	4	Owain Williams	Sahar Al-Faifi	Adrian Robson	Lisa Peregrine	Paul Williams	Mike Hancock	Steven Rajam	Debra Cooper	Rosamund Ellis-Evans
South Wales East	1	Helen Cunningham	Delyth Jewell	Laura Anne Jones	Mark Reckless	Neil Hamilton	James Wells	Jo Watkins	Amelia Womack	Rob Griffiths Calen Jones
South Wales East	2	Peter Jones	Peredur Owen Griffiths	Natasha Asghar	Richard Taylor	Ben Walker	Kirsty Walmsley	Veronica German	Ian Chandler	Bob Davenport Laurence Williams
South Wales East	3	Mary Ann Brocklesby	Lindsay Whittle	Matthew Evans	Steve Jones	Tom Harrison	David Rowlands	Oliver Townsend	Lauren James	Glenn Stephen Eynon Ryan Thomas Williams
South Wales East	4	Majid Rahman	Rhys Mills	Nick Evans	Mike Ford	Rob James	Colin Jones	Jez Becker	Stephen Priestnall	Irene Green Terry Beverton
South Wales West	1	Sian James	Sioned Williams	Tom Giffard	Simon Rees	Tim Jenkins	Christine Roach	Chloe Hutchinson	Megan Poppy Lloyd	Geraint David Jones
South Wales West	2	Kevin Pascoe	Luke Fletcher	Altaf Hussain	Cameron Edwards	Dan Morgan	Glenda Davies	Sam Bennett	Chris Evans	Wayne Erasmus
South Wales West	3	Neelo Farr	John Davies	Samantha Chohan	Robin Hunter-Clarke	Stan Robinson	Byron John	Harvey Jones	Alex Harris	David Smith
South Wales West	4	Mahaboob Basha	Jamie Evans	Liz Hill O'Shea	Sarah Allen	Gillian Mason	Sean Prior	Helen Ceri Clarke	Tom Muller	John Young

Opinion polling

The constituency vote is shown in lighter lines, while the regional vote is shown in darker lines.

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 10% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Results

Constituency and regional summary

Mid and West Wales

North Wales

South Wales Central

South Wales East

South Wales West

Turnout

This election saw the highest ever turnout for a Senedd election, with 46.6% of eligible Welsh voters casting their ballot. The previous high was 46.3% in 1999. There were, however, also noticeable differences in turnout in certain constituencies, with 52% of registered voters voting in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and just 35% doing so in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney.
Dr Jac Larner, a politics lecturer at Cardiff University and an investigator for the Welsh election survey, said that the two largest factors in determining voter turnout between constituencies were their socio-economic make-up and the competitiveness of the seat. "Basically, people with higher levels of formal education, people who own houses, people with more wealth essentially, are more likely to turn up to vote," he told BBC News. "Straight away, as you compare Cardiff North to Merthyr Tydfil, you see big differences there. However, we also know there's a pretty strong relationship between how competitive a constituency is and turnout. That's not just in Wales, that's a general rule almost everywhere in the world - and Merthyr Tydfil, as we've seen in this election, is not competitive in any sense."
Writing in Tribune magazine, Labour MS Mick Antoniw said that Welsh Labour's victory was "linked to the successful way in which Mark Drakeford and his government have handled the Covid pandemic and the way he has stood up to the more bizarre and reckless decisions of Boris Johnson, always putting the safety of the Welsh people and Welsh interests first."