2019 Brandenburg state election

The 2019 Brandenburg state election was held on 1 September 2019 to elect the members of the 7th Landtag of Brandenburg. It took place on the same day as the 2019 Saxony state election. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party and The Left, led by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke.
The SPD, Left, and opposition Christian Democratic Union suffered substantial losses. The SPD remained the largest party with 26% of votes, followed by the Alternative for Germany, which doubled its result to 23.5% and moved into second place. The CDU fell to third with 16%. The Greens improved to 11%, though they underperformed compared to prior opinion polling. The Left also recorded a result below expectations, falling from third to fifth place with 11%. The Brandenburg Free Voters narrowly passed the 5% electoral threshold and won five seats, up from three.
The incumbent government lost its majority. All parties ruled out cooperation with the AfD, and two possible coalitions were considered: a "Kenya coalition" of the SPD, CDU, and Greens which would hold 50 seats, and a "red-red-green" coalition of the SPD, Greens, and Left, which would hold 45. On 16 November, both the SPD and CDU voted in favour of a Kenya coalition, followed by the Greens on 18 November. Woidke was re-elected Minister-President by the Landtag on 20 November.

Background

Since German reunification, the SPD has been the strongest party in Brandenburg on a state level, and has held the office of Minister-President continuously.
The SPD and Left formed a coalition government after the 2009 state election, which was renewed after the 2014 state election. In the 2019 European Parliament election in Germany, AfD was the strongest party in Brandenburg on 19.9%, ahead of the CDU and SPD.

Electoral system

In principle, the Landtag consists of 88 members. 44 are elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies, and the remainder are filled by party-list proportional representation. The seats are distributed according to the largest remainder method. Only parties whose share of second votes exceeds the 5% electoral threshold or which have won a direct mandate are allocated seats. Overhang and leveling seats can expand the Landtag to a maximum size of 110 seats. This is detailed in the Brandenburg State Electoral Act.
According to the state constitution and the state election law, the election date must be a Sunday or a public holiday, at the earliest 57 months and at the latest 60 months after the beginning of the election period. In 2019, the date was set for 1 September 2019.
The minimum voting age is 16 years.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 6th Landtag of Brandenburg.

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	CDU	Linke	AfD	Grüne	FDP	BVB/FW	Others	Lead
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size								Others	Lead
	1 Sep 2019	–	26.2	15.6	10.7	23.5	10.8	4.1	5.0	4.1	2.7
	26–29 Aug 2019	1,653	22	16.5	14	21	14.5	5	4	3	1
	31 Jul–28 Aug 2019	2,460	20.3	17.9	15.5	20.3	14.8	4.9	–	6.3	Tie
	19–26 Aug 2019	1,019	21	17	15	21	14	5	5	2	Tie
	19–22 Aug 2019	1,112	21	18	14	20	14	5	4	4	1
	19–21 Aug 2019	1,002	22	18	15	22	12	5	4	2	Tie
	16 Jul–13 Aug 2019	2,981	18.2	17.1	14.7	21.0	17.2	5.5	–	6.3	3.2
	25 Jul–5 Aug 2019	1,009	17	18	14	21	16	5	4	5	3
	19 Jun–17 Jul 2019	2,895	17.2	16.3	16.9	21.3	15.1	5.2	–	8.0	4.1
	24 Jun–1 Jul 2019	1,001	19	18	16	19	16	6	3	3	Tie
	15 May–12 Jun 2019	3,007	21.4	16.3	19.5	19.6	12.0	4.3	–	6.9	1.8
	3–6 Jun 2019	1,000	18	17	14	21	17	5	4	4	3
	13–28 May 2019	1,011	19	20	18	20	12	5	3	3	Tie
2019 European election	26 May 2019	–	17.2	18.0	12.3	19.9	12.3	4.4	2.2	13.7	1.9
	19 Mar–16 Apr 2019	1,380	23.0	19.9	16.8	20.9	9.2	4.4	–	5.8	2.1
	2–6 Apr 2019	1,000	22	20	16	19	12	5	–	6	2
	End Jan–22 Feb 2019	5,955	21.8	22.1	20.0	18.8	7.0	4.4	–	5.9	0.3
	28 Jan–4 Feb 2019	1,006	21	21	17	19	10	5	4	3	Tie
	17–20 Dec 2018	1,005	20	19	17	20	12	5	–	7	Tie
	19 Nov–6 Dec 2018	1,006	23	21	18	21	10	3	–	4	2
	12–17 Sep 2018	1,000	23	21	17	23	7	5	–	4	Tie
	10–17 Aug 2018	1,048	23	18	18	21	8	5	4	3	2
	11–16 Apr 2018	1,000	23	23	17	22	7	4	–	4	Tie
	7–11 Nov 2017	1,005	23	22	17	20	6	7	–	5	1
	7–9 Nov 2017	1,002	25	22	18	18	6	5	–	6	3
2017 federal election	24 Sep 2017	–	17.6	26.7	17.2	20.2	5.0	7.1	1.2	5.1	6.5
	15–19 Jun 2017	1,000	28	25	18	15	6	3	–	5	3
	9–13 Jan 2017	1,003	30	21	15	18	7	4	–	5	9
	24–28 Nov 2016	1,000	30	25	17	16	6	–	–	6	5
	20–26 Sep 2016	1,001	30	17	17	20	6	4	–	6	10
	19–23 May 2016	1,002	29	23	17	20	6	–	–	5	6
	14–17 Mar 2016	1,003	31	19	16	19	7	3	–	5	12
	9–17 Dec 2015	1,002	36	21	18	11	6	–	–	8	15
	12–16 Nov 2015	1,000	33	23	19	13	6	–	–	6	10
	Sep 2015	1,002	35	24	20	7	7	–	–	7	11
	5–8 Feb 2015	1,000	34	25	19	10	5	–	–	7	9
	Dec 2014	1,001	34	22	19	8	8	–	–	9	12
2014 state election	14 Sep 2014	–	31.9	23.0	18.6	12.2	6.2	1.5	2.7	5.5	8.9

Results

By early afternoon, significantly more people had voted than at the same time in the 2014 election. According to the state election director, 31.3% of voters cast their ballots by 2:00 PM. At the time in 2014, the figure was only 22.4%.

Government formation

The governing SPD and Die Linke both suffered losses, bringing an end to their coalition. Incumbent Minister-President Woidke invited all parties except AfD to coalition negotiations as his party remained the largest bloc. The CDU expressed interest in joining a so-called "Kenya coalition" with SPD and Greens, which would have 50 seats, and reiterated their refusal to govern with AfD. Woidke confirmed he called CDU leader Senftleben on election day to begin discussions, but expressed reservations about the party's poor performance under pressure from the right. He also did not rule out the possibility of a red-red-green coalition with Die Linke and Greens, which would have a bare majority of 45 seats. Greens leader Nonnemacher expressed willingness to participate in either coalition, but made it clear her party would bring its own policy goals to the table and refuse to merely prop up the existing red-red coalition.
On November 16, both the CDU and SPD voted in favor of a "Kenya coalition." The Greens approved the coalition on the 18th; Woidke was duly voted in for his second term as Minister-President two days later by a count of 47 to 37 with 3 abstentions. The coalition commanded 50 seats.