2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election


The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Bill Haslam was term-limited and prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidate Bill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean in a landslide. Despite Lee’s win, this was the closest win for a Republican since 1994. Lee was sworn in for his first term as Governor on January 19, 2019.
The primary elections took place on August 2, 2018, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.
During the general election, Dean flipped back reliably Democratic Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby Counties, which voted for Republican governor Bill Haslam in 2014.
The results of the election marked the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.
As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Independents

Candidates

General election

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Lee 		Karl
Dean 		OtherUndecided
Targoz Market ResearchOctober 28–31, 2018480–53%44%–2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 28–30, 2018621± 4.0%54%41%2%3%
Fox NewsOctober 27–30, 2018718 LV± 3.5%54%37%2%7%
Fox NewsOctober 27–30, 2018850 RV± 3.0%52%36%2%9%
Vox Populi PollingOctober 27–29, 2018780± 3.5%56%44%––
CNN/SSRSOctober 24–29, 2018764 LV± 4.3%52%42%0%4%
CNN/SSRSOctober 24–29, 2018871 RV± 4.0%52%41%0%5%
East Tennessee State UniversityOctober 22–29, 2018495± 4.4%48%36%5%9%
Cygnal October 26–27, 2018497± 4.4%59%36%3%2%
Marist CollegeOctober 23–27, 2018471 LV± 5.7%57%40%1%3%
Marist CollegeOctober 23–27, 2018764 RV± 4.4%56%39%1%4%
Vanderbilt University/SSRSOctober 8–13, 2018800± 4.9%48%37%0%12%
Targoz Market ResearchOctober 9–12, 2018558 LV–56%44%––
Targoz Market ResearchOctober 9–12, 2018801 RV–49%39%–12%
NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeOctober 8–11, 2018593± 4.2%59%33%–8%
Fox NewsSeptember 29 – October 2, 2018666 LV± 3.5%53%36%1%10%
Fox NewsSeptember 29 – October 2, 2018806 RV± 3.5%52%35%1%10%
SurveyMonkeySeptember 9–24, 20181,609± 3.3%46%35%–19%
Vox Populi PollingSeptember 16–18, 2018567± 4.1%55%45%––
CNN/SSRSSeptember 11–15, 2018723 LV± 4.3%52%43%0%3%
CNN/SSRSSeptember 11–15, 2018852 RV± 3.9%49%43%0%5%
Triton Polling & Research September 10–12, 20181,038± 3.0%54%37%–9%
Fox NewsSeptember 8–11, 2018686 LV± 3.5%55%35%1%10%
Fox NewsSeptember 8–11, 2018809 RV± 3.5%52%34%2%12%
Marist CollegeAugust 25–28, 2018538 LV± 5.1%53%40%1%7%
Marist CollegeAugust 25–28, 2018730 RV± 4.5%51%39%1%9%
Gravis MarketingAugust 9–11, 2018620± 3.9%51%40%–9%
Triton Polling & Research January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%38%34%–28%

with Karl Dean

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Diane
Black 		Karl
Dean 		Undecided
Emerson CollegeJuly 11–14, 2018657± 4.1%35%39%27%
Triton Polling & Research January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%46%35%19%
Gravis MarketingDecember 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%40%31%28%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Randy
Boyd 		Karl
Dean 		Undecided
Emerson CollegeJuly 11–14, 2018657± 4.1%34%36%30%
Triton Polling & Research January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%43%34%23%
Gravis MarketingDecember 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%38%35%28%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Beth
Harwell 		Karl
Dean 		Undecided
Triton Polling & Research January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%43%33%25%
Gravis MarketingDecember 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%38%33%29%

with Craig Fitzhugh

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Diane
Black 		Craig
Fitzhugh 		Undecided
Gravis MarketingDecember 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%42%27%31%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Randy
Boyd 		Craig
Fitzhugh 		Undecided
Gravis MarketingDecember 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%39%30%31%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Beth
Harwell 		Craig
Fitzhugh 		Undecided
Gravis MarketingDecember 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%44%24%32%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mae
Beavers 		Karl
Dean 		Undecided
Triton Polling & Research January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%36%36%28%
Gravis MarketingDecember 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%32%37%32%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mae
Beavers 		Craig
Fitzhugh 		Undecided
Gravis MarketingDecember 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%36%29%34%

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Lee won seven of nine congressional districts.
DistrictLeeDeanRepresentative
76.2%22.7%Phil Roe
63.5%35.4%Jimmy Duncan
63.5%35.4%Tim Burchett
64.0%35.0%Chuck Fleischmann
66.0%33.0%Scott DesJarlais
35.6%59.3%Jim Cooper
69.7%29.3%Diane Black
69.7%29.3%John Rose
65.4%32.6%Marsha Blackburn
65.4%32.6%Mark Green
66.5%32.2%David Kustoff
21.5%74.9%Steve Cohen