2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election


The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the [United States Senate United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018|election in New Mexico, 2018|election] of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
Incumbent Republican Governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.

Background

At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.
However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system."
The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents, who do not vote in the primary election.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

Libertarian primary

Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico. Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot.

Governor

Candidates

Declared

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Steve
Pearce 		Michelle Lujan
Grisham 		Undecided
Research Co.November 1–3, 2018450 ± 4.6%41%53%6%
Research & Polling, Inc.October 26 – November 1, 2018993 ± 3.1%43%53%4%
Carroll StrategiesOctober 29, 20181,200 ± 2.8%45%51%4%
Emerson CollegeOctober 24–26, 2018936 ± 3.4%44%53%4%
GQR Research October 22–26, 2018600 ± 4.0%44%53%4%
Pacific Market ResearchOctober 19–24, 2018400 ± 4.9%39%48%13%
NSON Opinion Strategy September 20–24, 2018932 –40%44%16%
Research & Polling, Inc.September 7–13, 2018966 ± 3.1%43%50%–
Global Strategy Group August 27–30, 2018601 ± 4.0%42%52%5%
GQR Research August 18–22, 2018600 ± 4.0%44%52%–
Emerson CollegeAugust 17–18, 2018500 ± 4.6%40%42%18%
The Tarrance Group April 9–12, 2018608 ± 4.1%45%47%8%
The Tarrance Group May 20–23, 2017605 ± 4.1%43%47%10%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Steve
Pearce 		Michelle Lujan
Grisham 		Bob
Walsh 		Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy July 2018500 –37%44%7%11%
SurveyUSAJune 19–23, 2018535 ± 5.0%38%51%3%8%
Carroll StrategiesJune 15–16, 20181,199 ± 2.8%42%51%3%4%

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grisham won two of three congressional districts, with Pearce winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.
DistrictPearceLujan GrishamRepresentative
39%61%Michelle Lujan Grisham
39%61%Deb Haaland
53%47%Steve Pearce
53%47%Xochitl Torres Small
39%61%Ben Ray Luján