2018 Iowa gubernatorial election


The 2018 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds ran for election to a full term, facing Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell, Libertarian Jake Porter, and independent candidate Gary Siegwarth.
On election day, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote, a 2.8% margin of victory, and carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. This was the first Iowa gubernatorial election since 1998 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Background

After the 2016 presidential election, President Donald Trump nominated then-Governor Terry Branstad to be the United States Ambassador to China. When Branstad was confirmed by the United States Senate, he resigned as Iowa governor to assume the ambassadorship on May 24, 2017. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds then became governor of Iowa.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Withdrew

Declined

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Nate
Boulton		Cathy
Glasson		Fred
Hubbell		Andrea
McGuire		Jon
Neiderbach		John
Norris		Ross
Wilburn		OtherUndecided
Selzer & CompanyMay 13–15, 2018501± 4.4%20%13%31%5%–5%3%10%14%
RemingtonMay 5–6, 20182,315± 2.0%20%7%46%3%–5%1%–18%
20-20 InsightNovember 8–10, 2017762± 3.6%13%6%22%3%2%5%1%–47%

Libertarian primary

Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson received 3.8 percent of the votes in Iowa in 2016, surpassing the 2 percent threshold to attain full political party status. As a result, the Libertarian Party was allowed to hold a primary to select a nominee.

Candidates

Nominated

Declared

Independents

Candidates

  • Gary Siegwarth, fisheries biologist

Withdrew

  • Brent Roske, director and candidate for CA-33 in 2014

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds 		Fred
Hubbell 		Jake
Porter 		OtherUndecided
Change ResearchNovember 2–4, 2018961–46%49%3%1%–
Selzer & CompanyOctober 30 – November 2, 2018801± 3.5%44%46%2%1%7%
Emerson CollegeOctober 29 – November 1, 20181,462± 2.7%49%45%–2%5%
University of IowaOctober 8–22, 2018452–40%48%–5%6%
Selzer & CompanySeptember 17–20, 2018555± 4.2%41%43%7%0%9%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 6–8, 20181,000± 3.2%31%36%–7%26%
Selzer & CompanyJanuary 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%42%37%–12%10%

with Nate Boulton

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds 		Nate
Boulton 		OtherUndecided
Selzer & CompanyJanuary 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%41%37%11%11%

with Cathy Glasson

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds 		Cathy
Glasson 		OtherUndecided
Selzer & CompanyJanuary 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%44%31%14%12%

with generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds 		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
20/20 Insights June 19–21, 2017526± 4.3%44%39%17%

with John Norris

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds 		John
Norris 		OtherUndecided
Selzer & CompanyJanuary 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%41%30%14%15%

with Andy McGuire

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds 		Andy
McGuire 		OtherUndecided
Selzer & CompanyJanuary 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%42%30%15%13%

Results

While pre-election polls showed Reynolds trailing Hubbell, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote on election day, primarily by sweeping every county west of Des Moines and dominating the 4th Congressional District. Ultimately, she carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Hubbell won three of four congressional districts.
DistrictReynoldsHubbellRepresentative
48%49%Abby Finkenauer
47%51%Dave Loebsack
47%51%Cindy Axne
59%39%Steve King