2018 Alaska gubernatorial election


The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent Independent Governor Bill Walker was seeking re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former Alaska state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic former Alaska U.S. Senator Mark Begich. Despite Walker dropping out on October 19, 2018, and endorsing Begich, Dunleavy won in what was the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. As of 2024, this was the last time the governor's office in Alaska changed partisan control. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for governor of Alaska in 2022.
This was the only independent-held governorship up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

Independents

Governor

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Withdrew

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018. This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.

Governor

Declared

  • Mark Begich, former U.S. senator
  • William S. "Billy" Toien, Libertarian candidate for Alaska governor in 2010

Polling

with Mark Begich

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mark
Begich		Les
Gara		Chris
Tuck		Bill
Wielechowski		Undecided
Harstad Strategic ResearchMarch 22 – April 2, 2017205± 2.2%42%15%3%8%32%
Harstad Strategic ResearchMarch 22 – April 2, 2017205± 2.2%–25%5%19%51%
Harstad Strategic ResearchMarch 22 – April 2, 2017205± 2.2%49%–5%12%34%
Harstad Strategic ResearchMarch 22 – April 2, 2017205± 2.2%43%15%–8%34%
Harstad Strategic ResearchMarch 22 – April 2, 2017205± 2.2%44%19%4%–32%

Lieutenant governor

Declared

Withdrawn

Republican primary

Governor

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		John
Binkley		Mike
Dunleavy		Peter
Miccici		Joe
Miller		Bill
Walker		OtherUndecided
Harstad Strategic ResearchMarch 22 – April 2, 2017281± 2.2%7%6%4%25%19%3%36%
Harstad Strategic ResearchMarch 22 – April 2, 2017281± 2.2%9%8%6%29%–4%46%
Harstad Strategic ResearchMarch 22 – April 2, 2017281± 2.2%8%10%5%–25%4%48%
Harstad Strategic ResearchMarch 22 – April 2, 2017281± 2.2%–––33%21%–46%

Lieutenant governor

Declared

Declined

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office. However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot, as the deadline to withdraw was September 4.

Polling

with Bill Walker, Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Walker 		Mike
Dunleavy 		Mark
Begich 		Billy
Toien 		OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 26–29, 2018500± 4.4%8%43%42%3%–4%
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 19–22, 2018500± 4.4%5%48%44%––3%
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%27%43%26%––4%
Public Policy Polling October 11–12, 2018645–24%43%23%––9%
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%27%47%23%––4%
Alaska Survey ResearchSeptember 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%23%44%29%––4%
Harstad Strategic ResearchAugust 13–16, 2018602± 4.0%26%36%24%–2%12%
Patinkin Research Strategies June 22–28, 2018800± 3.4%28%36%22%––15%
Harstad Strategic Research June 21–26, 2018602± 4.0%28%32%28%––12%
Alaska Survey ResearchJune 15–21, 2018654± 3.8%23%38%33%––6%

with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mark
Begich 		Mike
Dunleavy 		Undecided
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%45%52%4%
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%41%55%5%
Alaska Survey ResearchSeptember 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%47%50%3%
Harstad Strategic ResearchAugust 13–16, 2018602± 4.0%46%44%–
Harstad Strategic Research June 21–26, 2018602± 4.0%50%41%9%
Alaska Survey ResearchMarch 25–29, 2018761± 3.6%53%42%5%

with Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Walker 		Mike
Dunleavy 		Undecided
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%45%52%2%
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%43%53%4%
Alaska Survey ResearchSeptember 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%41%54%5%
Harstad Strategic ResearchAugust 13–16, 2018602± 4.0%47%43%–
Harstad Strategic Research June 21–26, 2018602± 4.0%49%40%11%
Alaska Survey ResearchMarch 25–29, 2018761± 3.6%51%44%5%
Dittman Research February 26 – March 4, 2018800± 3.4%41%47%12%
Patinkin Research Strategies February 20–22, 2018600± 4.0%36%33%31%

with Bill Walker and Mark Begich

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Walker 		Mark
Begich 		Undecided
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%43%42%16%
Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%42%41%18%
Alaska Survey ResearchSeptember 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%40%46%15%

Results

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic