2015 Mina stampede


On 24 September 2015, a fatal crowd crush resulted in the death of more than 2,000 individuals, many of whom were suffocated or crushed, during the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Mina, Mecca, Saudi Arabia, making it the deadliest Hajj disaster in history. Estimates of the number of dead vary: the Associated Press reported dead, while Agence France-Presse reported killed. Based on the total of the individual national reports cited in the table below, at least lives were claimed. The government of Saudi Arabia officially reported two days after the event that there had been 769 deaths and 934 injured. These figures remained official at the time of the next year's Hajj and were never updated. The largest number of victims were from Iran, followed by Mali and Nigeria.
The crush occurred in Mina at the intersection of streets 204 and 223 leading to Jamaraat Bridge. The cause of the disaster remains in dispute. The Mina disaster inflamed tensions between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, which were already elevated due to the wider turmoil in the Middle East, such as the Syrian Civil War and Yemeni Civil War. In a press conference held on the day of the incident, Saudi Ministry of Interior spokesman Mansour Al-Turki attempted to address most issues regarding the incident. He said in September 2015 that an investigation was ongoing, and that the exact cause of the overcrowding that resulted in the deadly crush had not yet been ascertained.

Background

The Hajj is an annual pilgrimage in Mecca prescribed as a duty for Muslims to perform at least once during their lifetime if they can afford to do so physically and financially. As traditionally performed, the Hajj consists of a series of rites including the Stoning of the Devil which is done at the Jamaraat Bridge in Mina, a district a few miles east of Mecca. The Jamaraat Bridge is a pedestrian bridge from which pilgrims can throw pebbles at the three jamrah pillars. The stoning ritual is the last major ritual and the part of the Hajj with the most potential for disaster given its large crowds, confined spaces, and precise scheduling.
The 2015 Hajj occurred during a time of regional turmoil, the highest temperatures in Mecca in 20 years and the threat of MERS.
A number of Hajj-related crowd crush disasters have occurred in the past, with 1,426 people being suffocated and trampled to death in a 1990 tunnel tragedy, and at least 701 people killed in crowd crushes between 1991 and 2005. 346 people were killed in a similar Jamaraat incident in 2006, which prompted the Saudi government to improve the infrastructure of the city and its procession routes.

Disaster

NationalityDeadMissingRef.
Afghanistan|2013

Casualties

The exact casualty total for the Mina crowd collapse is disputed. The Saudi government officially reported deaths, a number that was not changed, while Iranian media sources have proposed totals as great as 4,173, after a withdrawn early number given by Saudi authorities. Independent estimates range between and people killed, with the most recent Associated Press estimate giving a death toll of, based on "media reports and officials comments from 36 of the over 180 countries that sent citizens to the hajj".
Estimates of the injured and missing also vary greatly; Saudi reports claim 934 injured; Iranian reports are much higher, estimating more than 2,000 injuries. On the day of the disaster, the Saudi Civil Defence directorate stated that casualties were of multiple nationalities and announced the deployment of 4,000 personnel to the crush site alongside 220 emergency response units. Pilgrims were redirected away from the crush site, and the Saudi Red Crescent Authority was mobilised. Medics at Mina's emergency hospital said they alone received almost 700 people on the day of the incident. The eight hospitals around the Hajj landmarks and the six main hospitals in the city of Mecca were operating at full capacity after the crush, medics said.
By 2 October 2015, the Saudi Arabia Health Ministry stated they had completed the DNA profiling of all unidentified pilgrims who were killed or injured in the crush. DNA samples of the next of kin of Hajj stampede victims were collected at Al-Nour Specialist Hospital, Mecca.

Prominent victims

Ghazanfar Roknabadi, an Iranian diplomat who served as Iranian ambassador to Lebanon from 2010 to 2014, was missing, and confirmed dead on 25 November 2015. Iran's Iranian Students News Agency reported that the body of Roknabadi, who had been reported as missing, was identified by DNA testing and visual confirmation by two of his brothers. While some Iranian officials had said Roknabadi was alive and had been kidnapped by Saudi Arabia covertly, Iranian news source Mehr News Agency reported that he died in the crush. Iran stated it would conduct independent medical tests to determine whether Roknabadi did die in the Mina disaster.Saudi Arabia had initially denied that Roknabadi was present at the 2015 Hajj. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham, on 28 September 2015, referring to Saudi media reports that say they do not have any official record of the entry of Ghazanfar Asl Roknabadi into the kingdom, described the reports as "incorrect" and "hasty", saying the ministry has documents showing that Riyadh had approved an ordinary Hajj visa for the dead diplomat. Iranian media also released footage on 29 September 2015, showing Roknabadi's presence in Mina. The passport showing his entrance into Saudi Arabia was also released by Iranian media.Adeola Maurufudeen Adefolabi, from Lagos, Nigeria, was a one-term member representing Ifako-Ijaiye in the lower chamber of the National Assembly and former chairman of Ifako Ijaiye and Ojokoro Local Government Areas.Tijani El-Miskin was a professor of Islamic Studies at the University of Maiduguri and a former director of a special training course for the students of Arabic studies at the University of Maiduguri in Gamboru. He also was the Chairman of the Borno State Pilgrims Board.Hajiya Bilkisu Yusuf was the first female editor from the northern part of Nigeria. She studied political science in Nigeria and the United States and journalism in Russia. After that, Bilkisu Yusuf pursued a successful career in journalism in Nigeria, working for the Daily Trust and Leadership newspapers and several local editions in Kano and Kaduna states.Mufti Mohammed Farooq, a prominent Indian Islamic scholar who was to perform Hajj, has been missing since the stampede. Farooq, a senior religious scholar, is a prolific writer and has authored more than 50 books on a range of subjects, including Hadith and Fiqh, in Urdu and Hindi. He is the founder and principal of the Jamia Mahmoodia school in Meerut.
Other prominent victims included:
  • : M. Djaâfar—Husband of Algerian Minister for Family and Women Nouara Saâdia
  • :
  • * Ahmad Fahima—Senior Iranian diplomat – First Secretary to the Holy See
  • * Mohammad Sadeq Akhavan—Deputy Director of the Centre for Dispute Resolution Councils Iran's judiciary
  • * Mohammad Rahim Aghaeipour—Iranian Diplomat, Ambassador to Slovenia
  • * Mohsen Haji Hassani Kargar reciter of Qur'an a world winner of International Quran Recital Competition in 2015
  • * Hassan Danesh winner of Qur'an reciting competitions in 2012 and 2015.
  • : Ismail Hamid Zair—Brigadier, Baghdad Crimes Unit
  • :
  • * Musa Hassan Alkali—Justice, Nigerian Court of Appeal
  • * Bello Gidan Hamma—Chairman, Illela Local Government Area
  • * Abdulkadir Jega—Justice, Nigerian Court of Appeal
  • * Shehu Kontagora—Niger State Accountant General
  • * Faisal Musa—Member, Katsina State House of Assembly
  • * Abbas Ibrahim Sambo—Emir of Zing
  • * Abdullahi T. Yeldu—Member, Kebbi State House of Assembly
  • : Assad Murtaza Gilani—Former Pakistani Member of Parliament
  • :
  • * Gnilane Diouf—Mother of footballer Mame Biram Diouf
  • * Abdoulaye Diaw—Senegalese National Technical Director, Football
  • : Talaat Abdel-Razeq—Sudanese Major General, Air Defense Commander

Eyewitness accounts

Early statements by eyewitnesses indicated that the crush was caused by the closure of the eastern part of Street 206, which forced pilgrims to travel on Street 223, colliding with a mass of people moving the opposite direction on Street 204.
Alhaji Samaila Dabai Yombe, Deputy Governor of the Nigerian state of Kebbi, who was present at the incident, stated that the deaths happened due to a blockage of the route to Jamaraat Bridge. "What actually happened was that all the pilgrims scheduled to throw Jamrat at that time were channeled to one particular street. At a time we got to a certain point around 8:00a.m., a military vehicle was set across to create a barrier and then some of the Saudi soldiers were standing by, suggesting that you cannot go beyond that point. About 5,000people coming from the same direction were not aware of the road block in front, which resulted to a tight and stationary human traffic, which made it very difficult for us to even stand. So, we continued to squat to make room for fresh air while the temperature was about 47 degrees Celsius. Pilgrims, in efforts to get fresh air, attempted to scale fences of tents on both sides of the road. Very few succeeded, while most people just succumb to the situation. It was at this juncture that we saw dead bodies piling up around us".
Ishaq Akintola, a Nigerian Professor of Islamic eschatology, gave an eyewitness account of the disaster: "on that fateful day, we found out that some of those who had thrown their own stones made a U-turn instead of moving ahead to take a detour. They came through the route meant for entrance and not exit. They came towards us. They were in a very large group and the road was not spacious enough to allow a free flow of those of us coming to throw stones at the Devil and those who had stoned the Devil. The road could not take those coming and those going. And I discovered that most of those who took the wrong way were Egyptians as I heard them speak the Egyptian dialect of Arabic. I studied in Egypt for five years. I know the dialect".

Investigation

Saudi official statements

In a statement released by the Saudi embassy, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir stated, "The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques has directed to launch a thorough investigation that will be transparent We will reveal the facts when they emerge, and we will not hold anything back. If mistakes were made, those who made them will be held accountable, and we will make sure that we will learn from this in order to ensure that it doesn't happen again."
A few weeks after the incident, the Saudi Vice Minister of Health officially announced 4,173 people dead in this incident in a press release, however, this page was removed from the website within three hours and requesting it would redirect the visitor to the homepage. The Saudi Minister of Health claimed that the published death toll was false in a Twitter post. Fars News, an official news agency of Iran, provided a walkthrough video to accessing the webpage assuming it was out of reach due to many page requests.
Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef supervised the official investigation. Saudi newspapers reported that on 18 October 2015 bin Nayef talked to the investigators and urged them to "continue their efforts to find the causes of the accident, praying to Allah Almighty to accept the martyrs and wishing the injured a speedy recovery". However, Saudi Arabia, as of 2015, has not yet released any findings by their investigators.
Prompted by difficulties in identifying bodies after the Mina disaster, Saudi Arabian Deputy Minister of Health, Hamad Al-Duwailie, announced plans to require all Hajj pilgrims to wear an electronic bracelet containing identity information. Al-Duwailie also said that Saudi Ministry of Health would upgrade its current Hajj and Umrah committee a permanent coordinating body within the Ministry. In January 2016, the Saudi Shura Council recommended "raising the capacity of roads leading to the Jamarat facility, and to the accommodation areas in Mina" as well as more studies on Hajj-related transportation flow.

Recommendations by independent experts

Najmedin Meshkati, Professor of Engineering and International Relations at the University of Southern California, who is an expert in accident investigation, recommended in a self-authored opinion piece in the World Post that, "the Saudi government should embark on the immediate creation of an independent investigation commission/panel. This interdisciplinary commission/panel should be chaired by a nationally renowned Saudi statesman or scholar, with members selected from Saudi Arabia and affected countries based on their technical expertise and to include responsible governmental entities, first responder agencies, and academics of requisite disciplines for accident investigation. And it should be empowered by the subpoena power and charged to conduct a comprehensive, systematic and interdisciplinary investigation by employing the system-oriented, robust 'AcciMap' methodology to write the most technically-sound report on the root-causes of this tragedy".
Amer Shalaby is a Professor of Civil Engineering at the University of Toronto's Transportation Research Institute, former Hajj pilgrim, and consultant to Saudi government on crowd management. Shalaby, who specializes in transportation planning for large-scale events, proposes using "smart phones and other static and dynamic sensors" to provide authorities real-time information that could identify potential trouble places during the Hajj. He also suggests that "some of the effective methods of highway traffic flow management, such as flow metering, could be adapted for streamlining crowd flows in Mecca".
Keith Still, Professor of Crowd Science at Manchester Metropolitan University in Britain, who helped redesign the Jamaraat after a disaster in 2004, said there was criticism at the time that the upgrades at the Jamaraat had not been extended to other areas. He said "For complex systems that flow in and out, if you make one change along the way it can have knock-on and ripple effects elsewhere. Change any one part of system with 3 million people, and there's a danger of an accident like this."
Mohammed Ajmal, a physician specializing in Emergency Medicine and former manager of a medical center established to treat Indian Hajj pilgrims, details issues with both the design of the Mina tent city and quick access to disaster medical care at the site. Ajmal discussed structural design flaws in Mina, calling it a "badly designed death trap—in times of disaster" as it attempts to funnel tens of thousands of people through T intersections, such as the junction of Streets 204 and 223 where the crush occurred. Compression asphyxia is the cause of death for most victims of a crowd collapse, and can occur within ten minutes; Ajmal notes that Mina's design prevents medical care from arriving within that time stating that people at crush sites are "destined to die" within minutes, before any medical help can reach the site.

Reactions

Governments

After the Mina disaster, many of the world's politicians sent messages of sympathy and consolation, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Qatari Prime Minister Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Al Thani, King Mohammed VI of Morocco, Kuwaiti Emir Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain, and Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi.
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Non-governmental

  • Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul-Aziz ibn Abdullah Al ash-Sheikh, Saudi Arabia's chief religious leader, told Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and Minister of the Interior, Muhammad bin Nayef, "You are not responsible for what happened. As for the things that humans cannot control, you are not blamed for them. Fate and destiny are inevitable".
  • Irfan al-Alawi, the executive director of the Islamic Heritage Research Foundation, said that "the disaster was a result of poor management by the government, given the number of past disasters."
  • Madawi al-Rasheed, a Saudi Arabian anthropologist and visiting professor at the London School of Economics, said: "There is no accountability. It's shocking that almost every year there is some kind of death toll. The renovation and expansion are done under the pretext of creating more space for Muslim pilgrims, but it masks land grabs and vast amounts of money being made by the princes and by other Saudis. Officials in the kingdom had avoided responsibility in part by citing the Islamic doctrine that anyone who dies during the pilgrimage goes to heaven."
  • Ali al-Ahmed, a Saudi analyst and current director of the Washington, DC–based Institute for Gulf Affairs think tank blamed the Saudi government's "mismanagement" of the Hajj, saying that "the Ministry of Interior's use of soldiers who have no clue or expertise in managing crowds was the real cause of stampedes. This really has to do with the failure of the Saudi government in organizing this Hajj, and they need to get help from around the world."
  • Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, a Ugandan British author and journalist, seized upon the incident to criticize Saudi Arabia for its human rights violations and funding violent Wahhabism in the world. She criticized the Saudi government for blaming the victims in the incident and added "Mecca was once a place of simplicity and spirituality. Today the avaricious Saudis have bulldozed historical sites and turned it into the Las Vegas of Islam – with hotels, skyscrapers and malls to spend, spend, spend. The poor can no longer afford to go there. Numbers should be controlled to ensure safety – but that would be ruinous for profits." She also added that Western leaders are not willing to confront Saudi Arabia because of oil and profits made by arm sales.
  • Abbass Schumann, the Undersecretary of Al-Azhar, Egypt, said that allegations of negligence concerning Saudi's administration and managing of the hajj are "unacceptable". Schumann called for patience pending the conclusion of the investigation by Saudi Arabia, and cautioned against rushing to judgment.
  • Egyptian physician and feminist writer Nawal El Saadawi said "They talk about changing the way is administered, about making people travel in smaller groups. What they don't say is that the crush happened because these people were fighting to stone the devil. Why do they need to stone the devil? Why do they need to kiss that black stone? But no one will say this. The media will not print it. What is it about, this reluctance to criticise religion?... This refusal to criticise religion... is not liberalism. This is censorship".
  • Vijay Prashad, Northampton-based journalist and historian, said that survivors told journalists that Saudi's response to the tragedy was "too little, too late," stressing that Saudi rescuers arrived almost two hours after the incident.... much of Mecca, like Saudi Arabia in general, is designed for the VIP and the VVIP. Embarrassingly, Riyadh provides little if any care to ordinary people and it is not the first time that Saudi Arabia has demonstrated disdain for the lives of Muslims. Instead of pouring money into the war, Riyadh should use its wealth to make the Hajj safe not only for the VIPs, but for millions of ordinary Muslims.
  • Citing the rumors about the block, Basma Attasi, a reporter from Al Jazeera who was present in the ritual, explained, "For those who know the area where the stampede occurred, this report seems far from reality. The relatively humble area is far from the entrance to Mina and houses ordinary pilgrims arriving from outside of Saudi Arabia. Important personalities stay in areas close to the entrance and their convoys are assigned separate tunnels and roads to facilitate their movement."
  • Moussa Mara, former Premier of Mali, said that "the Divine Will must be evoked after objective analysis, not before. Otherwise no corrective action will be taken and, one day, the same causes will produce the same effects" and called for a thorough investigation and analysis of the Mina crush so as to reduce or eliminate the possibility of such disasters happening again in the future.
  • Toby Craig Jones, professor of Middle Eastern history at Rutgers University told The New York Times that he was "not surprised at the Saudi reluctance to give information on what could be a catastrophic case of negligence". Jones stated that the Saudis "want to say it's a technical problem, that order broke down because the victims were unruly. But what if the opposite were true – that the Saudis haven't created a safe environment for the hajj? For the Saudis to be open and honest about what happened would require them to admit it's not a technical problem at all."

Unconfirmed reports

Saudi royal convoy

Lebanon-based Arabic-language daily Ad-Diyar reported that a convoy escorting Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud, Deputy Crown Prince and Saudi Minister of Defense, composed of 200 soldiers and 150 police officers initiated the disaster by blocking a street forcing pilgrims to turn around against the flow of traffic. The paper also alleged that the deputy crown prince and entourage swiftly left the scene, and that the Saudi authorities sought to impose a media blackout on reporting the Prince's presence in the area.
Iranian media reported the Ad-Diyar story, and Iranian Hajj officials stated that two streets near the disaster point had been sealed for "unknown reasons", while the Iranian Fars News Agency, quoted a member of the Iraqi parliament, Hassan Salem, as saying "the Mina disaster was an engineered tragedy to kidnap the Iraqi and Iranian officials on the pretext of the Mina incident." A reporter with the BBC's Hausa Service, Yusuf Ibrahim Yakasai, confirmed that at least one road leading to the Jamaraat was blocked. Saudi officials denied the reports, stating diplomatic convoys take place in the south of Mina and in tunnels, while the incident took place in the north.

Killing of the injured

Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused the Saudis of killing injured pilgrims by putting them in containers along with the dead.

Aftermath

The 2015 Mina Crush disaster has increased tensions in the already-strained relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran, led to calls from politicians in a number of Muslim nations for changes in oversight of Mecca and the Hajj, and bolstered opposition to King Salman among the senior members of the Saudi Arabian royal family.

Criticism of Saudi control of Hajj

Politicians and religious leaders in a number of Muslim countries have cited the 2015 Mina Crush disaster as reason for control of the Hajj be given either to a different nation or to a pan-Islamic organization. Mehmet Ali Sahin Deputy Chair of Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) criticised the Saudi organisation, and claimed that Turkey could do a better job than Saudi Arabia at organising the Hajj pilgrimage, calling for Turkey to be entrusted with its management. Nouri al-Maliki, former Prime Minister of Iraq, proposed that the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation should take over administration of the Hajj. Mohammad Emami Kashani, an Iranian Ayatollah, also demanded transfer of the control of the Hajj to the OIC, stating "Saudi Arabia is incapable of organising the pilgrimage. The running of the Hajj must be handed over to Islamic states." Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary General of Hezbollah stated that Saudi Arabia should allow Muslim countries to help the kingdom run the Hajj pilgrimage rituals, emphasising the need for the formation of a Muslim committee to "supervise the management" of the annual Islamic event. The Saudi government rejected such calls; Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal stated Saudi control over the Hajj was "a matter of sovereignty and privilege and service".
In 2016, supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent a global message via his website severely criticizing Saudi rulers for what he called "the crimes they have caused throughout the world of Islam," and asked they be held responsible. In his message Khamenei described the nature of Saudi rulers as "blasphemous, faithless, dependent and materialistic," and asked "the world of Islam" to know them. He demanded reconsidering the management of two holy places and the issue of hajj due to what he described as "Saudi rulers' oppressive behavior towards God's guests," referring to 2015 Mina disaster. "Otherwise Muslims would face biggest problems," he warned. "The hesitation and failure to rescue the half-dead and injured people... is also obvious and incontrovertible.... They murdered them," he said.

Increased Saudi–Iranian tensions

Government and religious leaders of Iran—which lost at least 464 citizens in the Mina disaster—have been harshly critical of Saudi Arabia. Saudi leaders have in turn have claimed that Iran is attempting to take advantage of a tragedy for political purposes.
Soon after the Mina Crush, both Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, had harsh words for the Saudi government and blamed Saudi Arabia for the disaster. Rouhani suggested that the Mina crush could be the result of the Saudi government moving their best troops to Yemen, and leaving Hajj crowd control to less experienced soldiers. While Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's then State Prosecutor claimed the disaster had been caused by the Saudi officials blocking a road so as to clear a path for a Saudi convoy, and that the House of Saud should be held responsible by international law. Iranian legal experts later decided that Iran could not bring such a case before the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court due to jurisdictional issues. Iranian officials also accused Saudi Arabia with kidnapping Iranian diplomat, Ghazanfar Roknabadi, who became missing during the Hajj, until his body was finally identified on 25 November 2015. On 24 November 2015, Iran announced that it was forming its own fact-finding committee to investigate the disaster. Iran claims that the death toll of the disaster greatly exceeds what has been reported, and that between 4,700 and 7,500 pilgrims actually died. On 4 January 2016, Iranian government spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht stated that Iran would be suspending participation by its nationals in the Umrah pilgrimage to Mecca, as "conditions of safety will not be guaranteed to pilgrims".
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir has urged Iran to wait for the results of the official Saudi investigation, stating that the Saudi government, "will reveal the facts when they emerge. And we will not hold anything back. If mistakes were made, who made them will be held accountable." Saudi government officials have made few official comments addressing specific Iranian allegations, while attempting to de-escalate tensions with Iran. However, Mohammed bin Nawaf bin Abdulaziz, Saudi Ambassador to the UK, did specifically deny what he called "unfounded allegations", including accusations that a road blockage by a Saudi royal convoy caused the disaster. Additionally, an anonymous Saudi official involved with management of the Hajj suggested to a reporter for Al-Monitor that Mina disaster might be the result of Iranian sabotage, and that the Iranian Hajj Mission was being investigated.
Amid deteriorating diplomatic relations and after months of negotiations concerning visa requirements and safety logistics, in May 2016 Iran suspended participation with the upcoming Hajj scheduled for September 2016. Iran previously suspended participation with the Hajj of 1988 and 1989, after 400 Iranian pilgrims were killed by Saudi security forces. On 18 May 2025, after a decade Saudi Arabia resumed Hajj flight from Iran into the kingdom.

Opposition to Saudi King Salman

The Mina disaster increased and emboldened opposition to Saudi King Salman. The Guardian reported after the disaster that a "senior Saudi prince has launched an unprecedented call for change in the country's leadership" writing two letters calling for his replacement. The prince was quoted by the Guardian as saying "The public are also pushing this very hard, all kinds of people, tribal leaders They say you have to do this or the country will go to disaster." According to reports, favored to replace Salman is his younger brother, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, another son of Saudi Arabia's founding king Ibn Saud, and former Interior Minister.
The likelihood of such a coup, at least in the short term, and the authenticity of the prince's letter, have both been questioned. However, structural economic problems, the Yemen War, and discord in the royal family all contribute to the real possibility of instability for Saudi Arabia. But as the holder of the royal title "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques", King Salman has been embarrassed by the twin disasters that bracketed the 2015 Hajj season—the Mecca crane collapse and the Mina Crush.

Description as "stampede"

Some academics who study crowd movements and crushing disasters have questioned the use of the term "stampede". "The rhetoric of 'stampede' is often used to imply that the crowd is animalistic or mindless, but from a crowd psychology point of view, I'm sure that there was a logical explanation for the crush", University of Sussex crowd behavioral expert Anne Templeton told Newsweek. "The density of the Hajj has been shown to reach up to 6–8 people per square meter, so I would be very surprised if a stampede could occur in the first place".
The academics argue that the Mina disaster is better described as a "progressive crowd collapse": beginning at densities of about six to seven persons per square meter, individuals are pressed so closely against each other they are unable to move as individuals, and shockwaves can travel through a crowd which, at such densities, behaves somewhat like a fluid. If a single person falls, or other people reach down to help, waves of bodies can be involuntarily precipitated forward into the open space. One such shockwave can create other openings in the crowd nearby, precipitating further crushing. Unable to draw breath, people in a crowd can also be crushed while standing.
Use of the word "stampede", says Edwin Galea of the University of Greenwich, is the result of "pure ignorance and laziness... it gives the impression that it was a mindless crowd only caring about themselves, and they were prepared to crush people." In reality, "people are only directly crushed by others who have no choice, and the people who can choose... are too far away from the epicentre" to be aware of what is happening. According to experts, true "stampedes" rarely occur except when a crowd is fleeing in fear, such as from a fire, and rarely does trampling by other human beings in such "stampede" conditions result in fatal injuries.
"If you look at the analysis, I’ve not seen any instances of the cause of mass fatalities being a stampede," says Keith Still, professor of crowd science at Manchester Metropolitan University. "People don't die because they panic. They panic because they are dying."