2011 National Assembly for Wales election

The 2011 National Assembly for Wales election was an election for the National Assembly for Wales. The poll was held on 5 May 2011 and decided the incumbency for all the Assembly's seats. It was the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales, and the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.
The election resulted in gains for the incumbent Welsh Labour, which gained four seats compared to the previous election and now had 30 seats, exactly half of the assembly. The party also secured a swing in its favour of over 10 percentage points. The Welsh Conservatives emerged as the largest opposition party with 14 seats, a net gain of two, but party leader Nick Bourne lost his seat. The junior party in the government coalition, the nationalist Plaid Cymru, suffered a drop in its vote and lost 4 seats. The Welsh Liberal Democrats lost significantly in the popular vote and returned five AMs, a loss of one.
British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged eighteen or over on election day were entitled to vote. The deadline to register to vote in the election was midnight on 14 April 2011, though anyone who qualified as an anonymous elector had until midnight on 26 April 2011 to register.
It was held on the same day as elections for Northern Ireland's 26 local councils, the Scottish Parliament and Northern Ireland Assembly elections, a number of local elections in England, and the United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in the so called additional member system for mixed-member proportional representation. The first vote may be used to vote for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the 'first past the post' system. The second vote may be used to vote for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

Results

Overall turnout: 42.2%

Votes summary

Opinion polls

Constituency vote (FPTP">First-past-the-post voting">FPTP)

Date conducted	Polling organisation/client	Lab	Cons	Plaid	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
5 May 2011	Welsh Assembly election results, 2011	42.3%	25.0%	19.3%	10.6%	2.8%	17.3%
4 May 2011		47%	20%	18%	9%	6%	27%
2 May 2011		45%	21%	18%	8%	7%	24%
14 April 2011		49%	20%	17%	8%	6%	29%
7 April 2011		51%	20%	17%	8%	5%	31%
30 March 2011		47%	21%	17%	8%	6%	26%
8 March 2011		48%	20%	19%	7%	7%	28%
26 January 2011		45%	21%	21%	7%	6%	24%
22 December 2010		44%	23%	21%	6%	6%	21%
24 November 2010		44%	21%	21%	9%	6%	23%
27 November 2010		44%	19%	21%	9%	8%	23%
3 May 2007	2007 National Assembly for Wales election	32.2%	22.4%	22.4%	14.8%	8.2%	9.8%

Regional vote (AMS">Mixed-member proportional representation">AMS)

Date conducted	Polling organisation/client	Lab	Cons	Plaid	Lib Dem	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
5 May 2011	Welsh Assembly election results, 2011	36.9%	22.5%	17.9%	8.0%	4.6%	3.4%	6.7%	14.4%
14 April 2011		44%	20%	18%	8%	4%	2%	4%	24%
30 March 2011		45%	20%	16%	8%	6%	2%	2%	25%
8 March 2011		45%	20%	18%	5%	5%	4%	2%	25%
26 January 2011		41%	20%	21%	8%	4%	2%	4%	20%
22 December 2010		42%	22%	21%	5%	5%	3%	2%	20%
24 November 2010		41%	20%	20%	9%	4%	3%	4%	21%
27 October 2010		40%	18%	23%	9%	6%	2%	3%	17%
27 October 2010		40%	18%	23%	9%	6%	2%	3%	17%
3 May 2007	National Assembly for Wales election, 2007	29.6%	21.4%	21.0%	11.7%	4.0%	3.5%	8.8%	8.2%

Constituency and regional summary

Constituency nominations

NB: candidates in bold text were the incumbent assembly members. Non-incumbents are represented in italics. Members elected in 2011 are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	Others	Result
Aberavon	TJ Morgan	David Rees	Helen Ceri Clarke	Paul Nicholls Jones		Labour hold
Aberconwy	Janet Finch-Saunders	Eifion Wyn Williams	Mike Priestley	Iwan Huws		Conservative gain
Alyn and Deeside	John Bell	Carl Sargeant	Peter Williams	Shane Brennan	Mike Whitby	Labour hold
Arfon	Aled Davies	Christina Rees	Rhys Jones	Alun Ffred Jones		Plaid Cymru hold
Blaenau Gwent	Bob Haywood	Alun Davies	Martin Blakebrough	Darren Jones	Jayne Sullivan Brian Urch	Labour gain
Brecon and Radnorshire	Chris Davies	Chris Lloyd	Kirsty Williams	Gary Price		LD hold
Bridgend	Alex Williams	Carwyn Jones	Briony Davies	Tim Thomas		Labour hold
Caerphilly	Owen Meredith	Jeff Cuthbert	Kay David	Ron Davies	Anthony King	Labour hold
Cardiff Central	Matt Smith	Jenny Rathbone	Nigel Howells	Chris Williams	Mathab Khan	Labour gain
Cardiff North	Jonathan Morgan	Julie Morgan	Matt Smith	Ben Foday		Labour gain
Cardiff South and Penarth	Ben Gray	Vaughan Gething	Sian Anne Cliff	Liz Musa		Labour hold
Cardiff West	Craig Williams	Mark Drakeford	David Morgan	Neil McEvoy		Labour hold
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Henrietta Hensher	Antony Jones	Will Griffiths	Rhodri Glyn Thomas		Plaid Cymru hold
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Angela Burns	Christine Gwyther	Selwyn Runnett	Nerys Evans		Conservative hold
Ceredigion	Luke Evetts	Richard Boudier	Elizabeth Evans	Elin Jones	Chris Simpson	Plaid Cymru hold
Clwyd South	Paul Rogers	Ken Skates	Bruce Roberts	Mabon ap Gwynfor		Labour hold
Clwyd West	Darren Millar	Crispin Jones	Brian Cossey	Eifion Lloyd Jones		Conservative hold
Cynon Valley	Daniel Saxton	Christine Chapman	Ian Walton	Dafydd Trystan Davies		Labour hold
Delyn	Matthew Wright	Sandy Mewies	Michele Jones	Carrie Harper		Labour hold
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Simon Baynes	Martyn Singleton	Steve Churchman	Lord Elis-Thomas	Louise Hughes	Plaid Cymru hold
Gower	Caroline Jones	Edwina Hart	Peter May	Darren Price		Labour hold
Islwyn	David Chipp	Gwyn Price	Tom Sullivan	Steffan Lewis	Peter Whalley	Labour hold
Llanelli	Andrew Morgan	Keith Davies	Cheryl Philpott	Helen Mary Jones	Sian Caiach	Labour gain
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Chris O'Brien	Huw Lewis	Amy Kitcher	Noel Turner	Tony Rogers	Labour hold
Monmouth	Nick Ramsay	Mark Whitcutt	Janet Ellard	Fiona Cross	Steve Uncles	Conservative hold
Montgomeryshire	Russell George	Nick Colbourne	Wyn Williams	David Senior		Conservative gain
Neath	Alex Powell	Gwenda Thomas	Matthew McCarthy	Alun Llewellyn	Mike Green	Labour hold
Newport East	Nick Webb	John Griffiths	Ed Townsend	Chris Paul		Labour hold
Newport West	David Williams	Rosemary Butler	Elizabeth Newton	Lyndon Binding		Labour hold
Ogmore	Martyn Hughes	Janice Gregory	Gerald Francis	Danny Clark		Labour hold
Pontypridd	Joel James	Mick Antoniw	Mike Powell	Ioan Bellin	Ken Owen	Labour hold
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Paul Davies	Terry Mills	Bob Kilmister	Rhys Sinnett		Conservative hold
Rhondda	James Eric Jefferys	Leighton Andrews	George Summers	Sera Evans-Fear		Labour hold
Swansea East	Dan Boucher	Michael Hedges	Sam Samuel	Dic Jones	Joanne Shannon	Labour hold
Swansea West	Stephen Jenkins	Julie James	Rob Speht	Carl Harris		Labour hold
Torfaen	Natasha Asghar	Lynne Neagle	Will Griffiths	Jeff Rees	Susan Harwood Elizabeth Haynes	Labour hold
Vale of Clwyd	Ian Gunning	Ann Jones	Heather Prydderch	Alun Lloyd Jones		Labour hold
Vale of Glamorgan	Angela Jones-Evans	Jane Hutt	Damian Chick	Ian Johnson		Labour hold
Wrexham	John Marek	Lesley Griffiths	Bill Brereton	Marc Jones		Labour hold
Ynys Môn	Paul Williams	Joe Lock	Rhys Taylor	Ieuan Wyn Jones		Plaid Cymru hold