2011 Castilian-Leonese regional election

A regional election was held in Castile and León on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th Cortes of Castile and León of the autonomous community. All 84 seats in the Cortes were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
The election saw the People's Party, which had formed the government of the region since the second democratic election in 1987, winning its largest majority to date with over 63% of the seats at stake, with incumbent president Juan Vicente Herrera being subsequently re-elected for a fourth term in office. The opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party and Leonese People's Union both lost ground, with the former securing its worst result since 1995, whereas United Left re-entered parliament for the first time since the 1999 election. The new Union, Progress and Democracy party, while achieving a remarkable result for a first-time national party with 3.3% of the share, failed to obtain any seats.

Overview

Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Cortes of Castile and León were the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.

Electoral system

Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 introduced a requirement for Spaniards abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote.
The Cortes of Castile and León were entitled to three seats per each multi-member constituency—corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora—plus one additional seat per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500. All members were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes being applied in each constituency. The use of the electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
15	Valladolid
14	León
11	Burgos, Salamanca
7	Ávila, Palencia, Segovia, Zamora
5	Soria

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expired four years after the date of their previous election. Amendments in 2007 abolished fixed-term elections, instead allowing the term of the Cortes to expire after an early dissolution. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 27 May 2011. The election decree was required to be published no later than 3 May 2011, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 26 June 2011.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.
The election to the Cortes of Castile and León was officially called on 29 March 2011 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCYL, setting election day for 22 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 14 June.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below the percentages in a smaller font; 43 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				UPL		Other/ None		Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None		Lead
CIS	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	2,974	39.5	19.0	3.3	1.0	1.4	11.4	24.4	20.5

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				UPL		Other/ None		Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None		Lead
CIS	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	2,974	73.9	4.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3	21.6	69.8

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Castile and León.
;All candidates

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care		Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care		Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Herrera	López	González	Valderas	Sánchez	Other/ None/ Not care		Lead
CIS	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	2,974	35.8	11.1	1.8	0.4	0.8	9.4	40.7	24.7

;Herrera vs. López