2007 National Assembly for Wales election

The 2007 National Assembly for Wales election was held on Thursday 3 May 2007 to elect members to the National Assembly for Wales. It was the third general election. On the same day local elections in England and Scotland, as well as the Scottish Parliament election took place. This election was preceded by the previous Assembly election in 2003.
The election saw Plaid Cymru make gains at the expense of Labour, although Labour remain the largest party in the Assembly, as they have since it began. Plaid stated they would make a referendum on devolving further powers to the National Assembly a condition for a coalition. Wales reported that senior civil servants before the election were preparing for three possible coalition administrations: Labour/Liberal Democrat, Labour/Plaid Cymru or Plaid Cymru/Liberal Democrat/Conservative.
Discussions between Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to form a "Rainbow" Coalition broke down, and a coalition was eventually agreed upon between Labour and Plaid Cymru.

Major parties

The Welsh Labour Party before the election had 29 seats, Plaid Cymru had 12, the Welsh Conservatives 11, the Welsh Liberal Democrats 6, Forward Wales 1, with 1 independent, Trish Law. Law had won her seat at a 2006 by-election. The one Forward Wales Assembly Member was elected as an independent before forming the party. The standings were otherwise identical to the 2003 results.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote may be used to vote for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote may be used to vote for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

Pre-election forecasts

Predictions for the seat distribution were made by a number of polls before the election:

Forecast by	Dates	Lab	Plaid	Con	LD	other
Institute of Welsh Affairs	2007-01-13	25	13	13	7	2
NOP/ITV	2007-04-06	25	12	14	7	2
Western Mail	2007-04-27	25	15	10	8	2

Electoral results

Overall turnout – 43.7%

Votes summary

Constituency nominations

NB: candidates in BOLD text were incumbent assembly members before the election

Constituency	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Plaid Cymru	Others
Aberavon	Daisy Meyland-Smith	Brian Gibbons	Claire Waller	Linett Purcell
Aberconwy	Dylan Jones-Evans	Denise Idris Jones	Euron Hughes	Gareth Jones
Alyn and Deeside	Will Gallagher	Carl Sargeant	Paul Brighton	Dafydd Passe	William Crawford
Arfon	Gerry Frobisher	Martin Eaglestone	Mel Ab Owain	Alun Ffred Jones	Elwyn Williams
Blaenau Gwent	Bob Hayward	Keren Bender	Gareth Lewis	Natasha Asghar	Trish Law
Brecon and Radnorshire	Suzy Davies	Neil Stone	Kirsty Williams	Arwel Lloyd
Bridgend	Emma Greenow	Carwyn Jones	Paul Warren	Nick Thomas
Caerphilly	Richard Foley	Jeff Cuthbert	Huw Price	Lindsay Whittle	Ron Davies
Cardiff Central	Andrew Murphy	Sue Lent	Jenny Randerson	Thomas Whitfield	Frank Hughes
Cardiff North	Jonathan Morgan	Sophie Howe	Ed Bridges	Wyn Jones	Dai Llewellyn
Cardiff South and Penarth	Karen Robson	Lorraine Barrett	Dominic Hannigan	Jason Toby
Cardiff West	Alun Craig Williams	Rhodri Morgan	Alison Goldworthy	Neil McEvoy
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Henrietta Hensher	Kevin Madge	Ian Walton	Rhodri Glyn Thomas
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Angela Burns	Christine Gwyther	John Gossage	John Dixon
Ceredigion	Trefor Jones	Linda Grace	John Davies	Elin Jones	Dafydd Morgan
Clwyd South	John Bell	Karen Sinclair	Frank Biggs	Nia Davies	David Rowlands
Clwyd West	Darren Millar	Alun Pugh	Simon Croft	Phil Edwards	Warwick Nicholson
Cynon Valley	Neil John	Christine Chapman	Margaret Phelps	Liz Walters
Delyn	Antoinette Sandbach	Sandy Mewies	Ian Matthews	Meg Elis	Derek Bigg
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Mike Wood	David Phillips	Steve Churchman	Dafydd Elis-Thomas
Gower	Byron Davies	Edwina Hart	Nick Tregoning	Darren Price	Alex Lewis
Islwyn	Paul Williams	Irene James	Mark J Maguire	Alan Pritchard	Kevin Etheridge
Llanelli	Andrew Morgan	Catherine Thomas	Jeremy Townsend	Helen Mary Jones
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Giles Howard	Huw Lewis	Amy Kitcher	Glyndwr Cennydd Jones	Clive Tovay, Jeff Edwards
Monmouth	Nick Ramsay	Richard Clark	Jacqui Sullivan	Jonathan T Clark	Ed Abrams
Montgomeryshire	Dan Munford	Rachel Maycock	Mick Bates	David Thomas	Bruce Lawson
Neath	Andrew Silvertsen	Gwenda Thomas	Sheila Waye	Alun Llewelyn
Newport East	Peter Fox	John Griffiths	Ed Townsend	Trefor Puw	Andrew Constantine
Newport West	Matthew Evans	Rosemary Butler	Nigel Flanagan	Brian Hancock	Mike Blundell & James Harris
Ogmore	Norma Lloyd Nesling	Janice Gregory	Martin Plant	Sian Caiach
Pontypridd	Janice Charles	Jane Davidson	Mike Powell	Richard Rhys Grigg
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Paul Davies	Tamsin Dunwoody	Hywel Davies	John Osmond
Rhondda	Howard Parsons	Leighton Andrews	Karen Roberts	Jill Evans
Swansea East	Bob Dowdle	Valerie Lloyd	Helen Ceri Clarke	Danny Bowles
Swansea West	Harri Lloyd Davies	Andrew Davies	Peter May	Ian Titherington	Richard Lewis
Torfaen	Graham Smith	Lynne Neagle	Patrick Legge	Rhys ab Elis	Ian Williams
Vale of Clwyd	Matt Wright	Ann Jones	Mark Young	Mark Jones
Vale of Glamorgan	Gordon Kemp	Jane Hutt	Mark Hooper	Barry Shaw	Kevin Mahoney
Wrexham	Felicity Elphick	Lesley Griffiths	Bruce Roberts	Siôn Aled Owen	John Marek, Peter Lewis
Ynys Môn	James Roach	Jonathan Austin	Mandi Abrahams	Ieuan Wyn Jones	Francis Wykes, Peter Rogers

Trish Law had defended the seat she won in the 2006 by-election. Then and now, she was standing as an independent, but was affiliated with the Blaenau Gwent People's Voice Group.
Ron Davies and John Marek stood as independents, but were members of and continued to play an active role in Forward Wales. Marek was the party's leader, while Davies was their policy director. Neither was elected on 3 May.