2022 United States Senate election in Ohio


The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican writer and venture capitalist JD Vance defeated Democratic U.S. Representative Tim Ryan to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Rob Portman.
Vance won by a 6.1 point margin, which was significantly closer than all other concurrently held elections for statewide offices in Ohio won by Republicans, but fairly consistent with polling for the election. Despite his defeat, Ryan flipped four counties carried by Portman in re-election in 2016: Summit, Montgomery, Hamilton, and Lorain, the latter of which Trump won in 2020; however, Vance scored wins in Ryan's home county of Trumbull and the industrial-based Mahoning County that contains much of Youngstown. Both counties were represented by Ryan in his congressional district.
Vance was endorsed by Donald Trump and became the only candidate in the seven statewide general election races funded by Trump's PAC to win. In 2025, Vance resigned from the Senate to become the 50th vice president of the United States under Trump.

Republican primary

As a result of Portman's retirement, this primary was expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Due to his high approval ratings within the Republican Party, most of the candidates sought the endorsement of then-former president Donald Trump. Former state treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, led most polls until late January, when businessman Mike Gibbons surged after spending millions in TV ads. At a forum in March 2022, Gibbons and Mandel got into a forceful argument over Mandel's private sector experience. The debate moderator intervened after it was feared that the two candidates would come to blows. On April 9, Gibbons said that middle-class Americans don't pay enough in income taxes, which immediately led to his poll numbers plummeting. On April 15, Trump endorsed writer and commentator JD Vance, who had criticized him in the past.
Vance had been trailing in the polls, but as a result of Trump's support, he surged to become the race's frontrunner for the first time and led in most polls up to election day. Meanwhile, State Senator Matt Dolan, who disavowed Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election, saw a late surge after buying ad time. Vance won with 32% of the vote with Mandel in second and Dolan in a close third. The primary was considered by many as a test of Trump's influence over the Republican Party as he won Ohio by 8 points in 2020. The primary was also the most expensive in the state's history, with the candidates spending a combined $66 million throughout the campaign.

Candidates

Nominee

Polling

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Matt
Dolan		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Jane
Timken		JD
Vance		Other
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsApril 28 – May 1, 2022May 2, 202221.5%15.0%22.5%7.0%26.0%8.0%Vance +3.5

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Bernie
Moreno		Steve
Stivers		Jane
Timken		Undecided
Remington Research Group June 1–3, 20211,040 ± 3.0%–45%––22%33%
WPA Intelligence February 1–3, 2021509 ± 4.4%3%38%2%11%6%39%

Results

By county

Source

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Amy
Acton		Tim
Ryan		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 15–16, 2021787 ± 3.5%37%32%31%

Results

By county

Source

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

Ohio had trended Republican in recent years, voting for Donald Trump by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. As such, most analysts expected that this seat would easily remain in Republican hands. However, aggregate polling on the run-up to the election indicated a competitive race, and most outlets considered it to be "lean Republican". In the end, JD Vance held the open seat for the Republicans.
The funding in the race was described as "lopsided" in favor of J.D. Vance who struggled to raise money on his own but was massively helped by national groups who poured in more than $30 million worth of advertising. Tim Ryan, the Democratic nominee, was the more prolific fundraiser but national Democratic groups provided comparatively little help on the airwaves and advertisements to keep up with the Republican campaign. Ryan called it "David against Goliath."