2022 United States Senate election in Ohio


The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican writer and venture capitalist JD Vance defeated Democratic U.S. Representative Tim Ryan to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Rob Portman.
Vance won by a 6.1 point margin, which was significantly closer than all other concurrently held elections for statewide offices in Ohio won by Republicans, but fairly consistent with polling for the election. Despite his defeat, Ryan flipped four counties carried by Portman in re-election in 2016: Summit, Montgomery, Hamilton, and Lorain, the latter of which Trump won in 2020; however, Vance scored wins in Ryan's home county of Trumbull and the industrial-based Mahoning County that contains much of Youngstown. Both counties were represented by Ryan in his congressional district.
Vance was endorsed by Donald Trump and became the only candidate in the seven statewide general election races funded by Trump's PAC to win. In 2025, Vance resigned from the Senate to become the 50th vice president of the United States under Trump.

Republican primary

As a result of Portman's retirement, this primary was expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Due to his high approval ratings within the Republican Party, most of the candidates sought the endorsement of then-former president Donald Trump. Former state treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, led most polls until late January, when businessman Mike Gibbons surged after spending millions in TV ads. At a forum in March 2022, Gibbons and Mandel got into a forceful argument over Mandel's private sector experience. The debate moderator intervened after it was feared that the two candidates would come to blows. On April 9, Gibbons said that middle-class Americans don't pay enough in income taxes, which immediately led to his poll numbers plummeting. On April 15, Trump endorsed writer and commentator JD Vance, who had criticized him in the past.
Vance had been trailing in the polls, but as a result of Trump's support, he surged to become the race's frontrunner for the first time and led in most polls up to election day. Meanwhile, State Senator Matt Dolan, who disavowed Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election, saw a late surge after buying ad time. Vance won with 32% of the vote with Mandel in second and Dolan in a close third. The primary was considered by many as a test of Trump's influence over the Republican Party as he won Ohio by 8 points in 2020. The primary was also the most expensive in the state's history, with the candidates spending a combined $66 million throughout the campaign.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • John Berman, electronic hardware design, test engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020
  • Bernie Moreno, businessman

Disqualified

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Matt
Dolan		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Jane
Timken		JD
Vance		Other
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsApril 28 – May 1, 2022May 2, 202221.5%15.0%22.5%7.0%26.0%8.0%Vance +3.5

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Bernie
Moreno		Steve
Stivers		Jane
Timken		Undecided
Remington Research Group June 1–3, 20211,040 ± 3.0%–45%––22%33%
WPA Intelligence February 1–3, 2021509 ± 4.4%3%38%2%11%6%39%

Results

By county

Source

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Ran in primary

Disqualified

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Amy
Acton		Tim
Ryan		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 15–16, 2021787 ± 3.5%37%32%31%

Results

By county

Source

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • John Cheng
  • Matthew R. Esh
  • Stephen Faris, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018
  • Shane Hoffman
  • Lashondra Tinsley

Disqualified

General election

Ohio had trended Republican in recent years, voting for Donald Trump by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. As such, most analysts expected that this seat would easily remain in Republican hands. However, aggregate polling on the run-up to the election indicated a competitive race, and most outlets considered it to be "lean Republican". In the end, JD Vance held the open seat for the Republicans.
The funding in the race was described as "lopsided" in favor of J.D. Vance who struggled to raise money on his own but was massively helped by national groups who poured in more than $30 million worth of advertising. Tim Ryan, the Democratic nominee, was the more prolific fundraiser but national Democratic groups provided comparatively little help on the airwaves and advertisements to keep up with the Republican campaign. Ryan called it "David against Goliath."

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		JD
Vance 		Tim
Ryan 		OtherUndecided
CiviqsNovember 4–7, 2022716 ± 4.1%51%46%2%2%
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 ± 4.6%52%44%–4%
Targoz Market ResearchNovember 2–6, 2022505 ± 4.3%52%45%3%–
The Trafalgar Group November 3–5, 20221,123 ± 2.9%54%44%–3%
Data for Progress November 2–5, 20221,413 ± 3.0%55%45%––
Cygnal November 1–3, 20221,498 ± 2.5%49%43%–8%
Remington Research Group November 1–2, 20221,125 ± 2.8%48%43%–9%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 1, 20221,000 ± 3.0%51%43%2%4%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 1, 20221,000 ± 3.0%53%44%3%–
Cygnal October 29 – November 1, 20221,520 ± 2.5%49%44%–7%
Cygnal October 26–30, 20221,510 ± 2.5%48%44%–8%
Cygnal October 24–28, 20221,776 ± 2.3%48%43%–9%
Cygnal October 22–26, 20221,817 ± 2.3%49%44%–8%
Cygnal October 20–24, 20221,886 ± 2.3%48%44%–8%
Baldwin Wallace UniversityOctober 20–23, 20221,068 ± 3.5%46%50%–4%
Cygnal October 18–22, 20221,547 ± 2.5%47%43%–10%
Marist CollegeOctober 17–20, 20221,141 ± 3.9%46%45%1%8%
Marist College942 ± 4.3%47%47%1%5%-
Cygnal October 16–20, 20221,540 ± 2.5%47%44%–9%
Siena CollegeOctober 14–19, 2022644 ± 5.1%46%46%3%6%
Cygnal October 14–18, 20221,438 ± 2.6%47%43%–10%
Ohio Northern University/LucidOctober 11–15, 2022668 ± 3.8%41%43%1%15%
Suffolk UniversityOctober 11–15, 2022500 ± 4.4%47%45%1%6%
The Trafalgar Group October 10–12, 20221,081 ± 2.9%47%44%–9%
Data for Progress October 7–12, 20221,016 ± 3.0%49%46%–5%
Cygnal October 6–8, 2022640 –46%44%–9%
Emerson CollegeOctober 6–7, 20221,000 ± 3.0%46%45%1%9%
Kurt Jetta October 2–3, 2022950 ± 3.5%35%43%–22%
Kurt Jetta October 2–3, 2022528 ± 3.5%38%49%–14%
Siena CollegeSeptember 18–22, 2022642 ± 4.4%43%46%2%9%
Baldwin Wallace UniversitySeptember 12–15, 2022855 ± 4.1%45%48%–7%
Marist CollegeSeptember 12–15, 20221,200 ± 3.6%46%45%–9%
Marist CollegeSeptember 12–15, 20221,009 ± 3.9%48%47%–5%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 10–13, 20221000 ± 3.0%44%40%3%13%
CiviqsSeptember 10–13, 2022780 ± 4%48%45%3%4%
Fallon ResearchSeptember 6–11, 2022600 ± 4.3%43%46%1%10%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 5–7, 2022500 ± 4.4%46%47%1%6%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022831 ± 4.3%39%45%–15%
Impact Research August 17–23, 2022800 ± 3.5%47%50%–3%
The Trafalgar Group August 16–19, 20221,087 ± 2.9%50%45%–6%
Emerson CollegeAugust 15–16, 2022925 ± 3.2%45%42%4%10%
Kurt Jetta August 1–3, 20221,180 ± 2.9%32%42%–26%
Kurt Jetta August 1–3, 2022974 ± 3.1%33%44%–23%
Kurt Jetta August 1–3, 2022516 ± 4.3%38%49%–12%
Impact Research July 21–28, 2022800 ± 3.5%45%48%–7%
PEM Management Corporation July 22–24, 2022300 ± 5.7%38%44%3%15%
Grow Progress July 5–10, 20222,032 ± 3.0%41%46%–13%
Kurt Jetta July 1–3, 20221,199 ± 2.8%36%41%–23%
Kurt Jetta July 1–3, 2022989 ± 3.1%37%44%–20%
Kurt Jetta July 1–3, 2022528 ± 4.3%43%46%–11%
Impact Research June 27–30, 2022816 ± 3.4%46%48%–6%
Grow Progress May 30 – June 3, 20222,018 ± 3.0%41%44%–15%
Suffolk UniversityMay 22–24, 2022500 ± 4.4%42%39%2%17%
Momentive May 13, 20221,174 ± 2.9%37%37%–25%
Momentive May 13, 2022989 ± 3.1%40%39%–21%
Momentive May 13, 2022528 ± 4.3%48%43%–9%
Grow Progress April 25–29, 20222,014 ± 2.5%41%43%–15%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,200 ± 2.8%33%36%3%24%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,160 ± 2.9%36%37%3%23%
Public Policy Polling March 18–19, 2021700 ± 3.7%39%37%–24%

Josh Mandel vs. Amy Acton

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Josh
Mandel 		Amy
Acton 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 18–19, 2021700 ± 3.7%41%42%17%

Josh Mandel vs. Tim Ryan

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Josh
Mandel 		Tim
Ryan 		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,200 ± 2.8%38%36%4%18%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,160 ± 2.9%41%37%4%17%
Public Policy Polling March 18–19, 2021700 ± 3.7%42%38%–20%

Jane Timken vs. Amy Acton

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jane
Timken 		Amy
Acton 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 18–19, 2021700 ± 3.7%40%40%20%

Jane Timken vs. Tim Ryan

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jane
Timken 		Tim
Ryan 		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,200 ± 2.8%33%36%4%23%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,160 ± 2.9%36%38%4%22%
Public Policy Polling March 18–19, 2021700 ± 3.7%41%38%–21%

JD Vance vs. Amy Acton

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		JD
Vance 		Amy
Acton 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 18–19, 2021700 ± 3.7%38%40%22%

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Vance won ten of 15 congressional districts.
DistrictVanceRyanRepresentative
46%54%Steve Chabot
46%54%Greg Landsman
70%30%Brad Wenstrup
28%72%Joyce Beatty
67%33%Jim Jordan
61%39%Bob Latta
62%38%Bill Johnson
52%48%Bob Gibbs / Anthony Gonzalez
52%48%Max Miller
61%39%Warren Davidson
49.8%50.2%Marcy Kaptur
52%48%Mike Turner
20%80%Shontel Brown
63%37%Troy Balderson
47%53%Tim Ryan
47%53%Emilia Sykes
55%45%David Joyce
53%47%Mike Carey

Voter demographics

According to exit polls by the National Election Pool, Vance won the election, winning majority of white voters, while Ryan received majorities of the Black vote and, to smaller extent, the Latino vote.