Beyond 2011


Beyond 2011, also known as The Beyond 2011 Programme, was a project initiated by the UK Statistics Authority to look at the alternatives to running a UK census in 2021. In 2008, the Treasury Select Committee had expressed concerns about the increasing cost of running the census and inaccuracies in data gathered only every ten years. In 2010, the newly elected coalition government reiterated such concerns responding to a report by the UK Statistics Authority.
The Beyond 2011 Programme was established in 2011 to look at alternatives to the traditional census approach. The UK Statistics Authority will coordinate activity with its counterparts in the devolved administrations of Scotland and Northern Ireland which have also set up reviews of the future approach to population data provision. In 2012 six options were identified by the Beyond 2011 Programme for further consideration, ranging from a full 10-year census to rolling or smaller scale annual surveys, some supplemented by administrative data capture.
In 2014, the UK Statistics Authority announced its recommendation for the 2021 census in England and Wales. It proposed that in 2021, there should be a decennial census for England and Wales which would be conducted predominantly through online returns, supplemented by the further use of administrative and survey data. A parallel announcement for Scotland's 2021 census was made by the National Records for Scotland.
Following agreement to the recommendations in January 2015 the UK Statistics Authority formally closed the Beyond 2011 Programme. It has been replaced by the Census Transformation Programme which has the purpose of taking forward and implementing the vision and recommended approaches.

Background

The decennial census has been the method of collecting United Kingdom-wide population-based statistics since 1801. Currently the UK census is governed by the Census Act 1920. However, prior to 1841 it was no more than a headcount. Since 1841, except in 1941 when no census took place due to the Second World War, detail was gathered about the household. Until the 1901 the enumerators were responsible for completing census enumerator sheets, transcribing the details included in household schedules completed by the head of the household. From the 1911 census onwards an individual census form, provided by and returned to an enumerator, was completed by the head of the household and became the primary source of demographic data. In 2001 census returns were for the first time sent out by post, but were collected by enumerators. The 2011 UK Census was the first time, individual census forms were issued through the Royal Mail and could also be returned by post, except in Scotland where instead they were collected by enumerators. Census forms could also be completed and submitted through the internet by the householder. In recent times, combined with other data, the ten-yearly census has provided the basis of socio-economic statistics used by all branches of national and local government, the Public Services and the private sector.
Both the current UK coalition government and the previous Labour Government expressed concerns about the rising costs of a survey of the whole population conducted once every ten years. Meanwhile, the accuracy and utility of a snapshot of the whole UK population once every ten years compared to continued surveying was being questioned. A rapidly changing society, evolving user requirements and new opportunities were emerging as drivers for change. These concerns and opportunities encouraged the UK Government to investigate alternative methods of population data collection; to identify the best way to provide small area population, and socio-demographic statistics in the future by taking advantages of the more advanced technology that is becoming available, and also to make use of existing sources of demographic data already being collected by the private sector.
A Treasury Select Committee report in 2008 entitled Counting the Population recommended that:
In May 2010 the Chairman of the UK Statistics Authority announced in a letter to the Minister for the Cabinet Office that: The Cabinet Office Minister, Francis Maude was reported in Daily Telegraph in July 2010 as saying:
In April 2011 The Beyond 2011 Programme was launched in England and Wales by the ONS with the purpose of identifying the best way to provide small area population and socio-demographic statistics as an alternative to running a traditional ten-year census in 2021. As part of the review of future requirements the National Records of Scotland launched a Beyond 2011 Programme for Scotland in September 2011, and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency said it is also participating in the Beyond 2011 project.
The UK Population Committee comprising the National Statistician, the Registrars General in Scotland and Northern Ireland and the Chief Statistician for the Welsh and Scottish Governments, agreed to collaborate to ensure as far as possible there was a harmonised approach on definitions, methods, data sources and outputs. A UK Beyond 2011 Committee was established to coordinate UK-wide work to review alternative approaches to meeting future user needs for population and small area socio-demographic statistics. It would also take into account benefits and cost savings, the wider initiatives of the devolved administrations, and the provision of aggregated statistical data to Eurostat. The statistical authorities would make recommendations to the UK Government and the devolved Administrations in 2014. Subject to governmental approval the UK Beyond 2011 Committee would oversee implementation from 2015.

The Beyond 2011 programme

The Beyond 2011 Programme is being coordinated on behalf of UK Statistics by the Office for National Statistics. The ONS advised it would collaborate with the statistical authorities of the devolved administrations of Scotland and Northern Ireland, in order to ensure the consistency of statistics across the whole of the United Kingdom. The UK Statistics Authority has indicated that the Beyond 2011 recommendations will take into account user requirements, 'public burden', costs and public acceptability and above all the statistical viability of the potential solutions. The recommendations are anticipated to have implications for all population-based statistics and potentially, in the longer term, for the statistics gathering, analysis and publishing systems as a whole.

Programme timeline

Phase 1 between 2011 and 2014 involves; scoping possible options, user consultation, finalise options, making recommendations. Phase 2 between 2014 and 2020 would depend on the solution chosen but if not a UK census would involve; selection the solution, detailed design, procuring, developing and testing. Phase 3 from 2020 to 2021; prepare and conduct population data gathering, analysis followed by output of population estimates and detailed local, regional and national geographies characteristics.

User consultation exercise

A user consultation exercise was conducted between October 2011 and January 2012 the results of which were published in August 2012. The consultation focussed on two issues:
• the current and future requirements for population and socio-demographic statistics on different topics; and,
• the trade-off between accuracy, geography and the frequency at which the statistics are produced.
The results indicated that users still favoured a traditional field-based census. There are newly emerging and increasing data requirements for local-decision-making. There is a need for more timely and regular statistics on a wider-range of themes. Accuracy of data and statistics based on the local geography is of higher importance than the frequency of data production. Genealogists are concerned about the potential loss of historical records.

Options considered

Initially, eight options were identified which were assessed. Following initial consideration it was found that some of the options had identical components so it was decided to redefine the options in the form of varying quality standards covering census, survey and administrative data aggregation, which would each be assessed in terms of accuracy, frequency and geography. In 2012 the second round of assessment commenced with six possible options identified for detailed investigation. The criteria for assessment of these options will comprise cost, technical feasibility, risk, public acceptability, and fitness for purpose.
  • Option 1 Full census - conducted once every 10 years with a circa 1% coverage survey, intercensal population estimates produced by cohort component method.
  • Option 2 Rolling census - conducted on an annual basis comprising between 4 - 10% of the population with an annual coverage survey. Precise sampling design to be confirmed.
  • Option 3 Short Form Census and 4% Annual Survey - A census every 10 years with a circa 1% coverage survey, intercensal population estimates produced by cohort component method. Annual attribute survey with a c4% annual achieved sample size.
  • Option 4 Annual Linkage and 10% 10-yearly Survey - Administrative data linkage plus an annual circa 1% coverage survey with a one-off circa 10% coverage survey in 2021 to validate the method. Ten yearly attribute survey with achieved sample size of circa 10%.
  • Option 5 Annual Linkage and 4% Annual Survey - Administrative data linkage plus an annual circa 1% coverage survey with a one-off circa 10% coverage survey in 2021 to validate the method. Annual attribute survey with achieved sample size of circa 4%.
  • Option 6 Annual Linkage and 40% 10-yearly Survey - Administrative data linkage plus an annual circa 1% coverage survey with a one-off circa 10% coverage survey in 2021 to validate the method. Ten yearly attribute survey with achieved sample size of circa 40%.