2020 United States Senate election in Michigan


The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2020 [United States presidential election|2020 U.S. presidential election], as well as 2020 [United States Senate elections|other elections] to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state Donald Trump won in 2016. The primary was held on August 4.
The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21, but this was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election was considered a potential upset pickup by the Republicans due to the state's demographic trends, Donald Trump's upset win in 2016, and Republican candidate John James exceeding expectations in the 2018 election.
Peters won election to a second term, though by a much closer margin than expected. James, who outperformed Trump on the same ballot, initially refused to concede, baselessly claiming in a statement published to his campaign website two days after the election that he had been "cheated" out of winning the election. The statement alleged that there were "deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat." On November 24, James conceded the race exactly three weeks after election day. With a margin of 1.68%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2020 Senate election cycle, behind only the regularly-scheduled election in Georgia.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • John James, businessman, Iraq War veteran and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018

Disqualified

Declined

Other candidates

Communist Party

Withdrawn

  • Frank Seldon Cupps ''''

Green Party

Nominee

  • Marcia Squier ''''

Natural Law Party

Nominee

  • Doug Dern

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Nominee

  • Valerie L. Willis ''''

Independents

  • Leonard Gadzinski

Withdrawn

  • Gregory Charles Jones

General election

Polling

Aggregate polls

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gary
Peters 		John
James 		Other/
Undecided
Research Co.October 31 – November 1, 2020450 ± 4.6%52%37%12%
Change Research/CNBCOctober 29 – November 1, 2020383 ± 5.01%51%46%3%
SwayableOctober 27 – November 1, 2020393 ± 6.6%54%46%–
Ipsos/ReutersOctober 27 – November 1, 2020654 ± 4.4%51%44%5%
Morning ConsultOctober 22–31, 20201,736 ± 2.0%49%43%–
Emerson CollegeOctober 29–30, 2020700 ± 3.4%52%46%2%
Public Policy Polling (D)October 29–30, 2020745 ± 3.6%54%44%2%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmartOctober 25–30, 2020993 –54%43%2%
CNN/SSRSOctober 23–30, 2020907 ± 3.8%52%40%7%
Mitchell Research (R)October 29, 2020817 ± 3.43%50%45%5%
RMG ResearchOctober 27–29, 2020800 ± 3.5%50%41%9%
RMG ResearchOctober 27–29, 2020800 ± 3.5%52%39%9%
RMG ResearchOctober 27–29, 2020800 ± 3.5%48%42%9%
EPIC-MRAOctober 25–28, 2020600 ± 4%47%42%11%
Kiaer ResearchOctober 21–28, 2020669 ± 5.6%51%38%11%
Mitchell Research (R)October 25–27, 2020759 ± 3.56%52%43%3%
Tarrance Group (R)October 24–26, 2020– ± 4.3%48%46%1%
SwayableOctober 23–26, 2020365 ± 6.9%58%42%–
Siena College/NYT UpshotOctober 23–26, 2020856 ± 3.8%49%41%8%
Ipsos/ReutersOctober 20–26, 2020652 ± 4.4%50%44%6%
Glengariff GroupOctober 23–25, 2020600 ± 4%48%39%9%
ABC/Washington PostOctober 20–25, 2020789 ± 4%52%46%2%
Gravis MarketingOctober 24, 2020679 ± 3.8%52%41%7%
Public Policy Polling (D)October 21–22, 2020804 –52%43%6%
Citizen DataOctober 17–20, 20201,000 ± 3.1%46%42%12%
FOX NewsOctober 17–20, 20201,032 ± 3%49%41%9%
Reuters/IpsosOctober 14–20, 2020686 ± 4.3%50%45%5%
Morning ConsultOctober 11–20, 20201,717 ± 2.4%48%42%–
Change Research/CNBCOctober 16–19, 2020718 –50%45%–
EPIC-MRAOctober 15–19, 2020600 ± 4%45%39%16%
Mitchell Research (R)October 18, 2020900 ± 3.27%49%43%8%
Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PACOctober 15–18, 20201,034 ± 2.97%48%50%3%
Data For ProgressOctober 15–18, 2020830 ± 3.4%48%43%9%
HarrisX/The HillOctober 12–15, 20201,289 –50%43%–
Trafalgar Group (R)October 11–15, 20201,018 ± 2.99%47%48%5%
Reuters/IpsosOctober 7–13, 2020620 ± 4.5%52%44%4%
EPIC-MRAOctober 8–12, 2020600 ± 4%45%39%16%
Siena College/NYT UpshotOctober 6–11, 2020614 ± 4.6%43%42%15%
Morning ConsultOctober 2–11, 20201,710 ± 2.4%49%40%–
YouGov/CBSOctober 6–9, 20201,181 ± 3.3%47%44%9%
Baldwin Wallace UniversitySeptember 30 – October 8, 20201,134 ± 3.2%48%42%10%
Emerson CollegeOctober 6–7, 2020716 ± 3.6%51%41%8%
Opinion Insight/American Action ForumOctober 3–6, 2020800 ± 3.46%49%42%8%
Reuters/IpsosSeptember 29 – October 6, 2020709 ± 4.2%50%43%7%
Tarrance Group (R)October 3–5, 2020605 ± 4.1%48%46%–
Change Research/CNBCOctober 2–4, 2020676 –51%43%6%
Glengariff GroupSeptember 30 – October 3, 2020600 ± 4%45%40%16%
Public Policy Polling (D)September 30 – October 1, 2020746 –48%41%10%
Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PACSeptember 26–28, 20201,042 ± 2.95%48%47%5%
Trafalgar Group (R)September 23–25, 20201,047 ± 2.95%47%47%6%
Marist College/NBCSeptember 19–23, 2020799 ± 4.3%49%44%7%
Baldwin Wallace UniversitySeptember 9–22, 20201,001 ± 3.6%46%41%13%
Change Research/CNBCSeptember 18–20, 2020568 –50%44%5%
Morning ConsultSeptember 11–20, 20201,376 ± 47%40%–
Hart Research Associates (D)September 17–19, 2020400 ± 4.9%50%42%–
Data for Progress (D)September 14–19, 2020455 ± 4.6%47%42%12%
Marketing Resource Group (R)September 14–19, 2020600 ± 4.0%42%40%20%
Morning ConsultSeptember 8–17, 20201,451 ± 48%40%–
Ipsos/ReutersSeptember 11–16, 2020637 ± 4.4%49%43%7%
EPIC-MRASeptember 10–15, 2020600 ± 4%45%41%14%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 12–14, 2020930 ± 3.21%51%35%13%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy GroupAugust 28 – September 8, 20201,600 ± 2.5%45%41%14%
Change Research/CNBCSeptember 4–6, 2020876 ± 3.2%50%46%5%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 2–3, 20201,000 ± 3.0%48%40%13%
Glengariff Group/Detroit NewsSeptember 1–3, 2020600 ± 4.0%44%41%14%
Tarrance Group (R)September 1–3, 2020569 –47%46%7%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 30 – September 3, 2020967 ± 3.2%50%38%12%
Opinion Insight/American Action ForumAugust 30 – September 2, 2020802 ± 3.46%49%42%8%
Public Policy Polling (D)August 28–29, 2020897 ± 3.2%47%39%14%
Change Research/CNBCAugust 21–23, 2020809 ± 3.4%50%45%6%
Trafalgar Group (R)August 14–23, 20201,048 ± 3.0%47%48%5%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 16–18, 2020812 ± 3.4%48%39%13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)August 11–15, 2020600 –53%39%8%
Tarrance Group (R)August 10–13, 2020602 ± 4.1%49%44%7%
Change Research/CNBCAugust 7–9, 2020413 ± 4.6%48%45%7%
EPIC-MRAJuly 25–30, 2020600 ± 4.0%50%40%10%
Public Policy Polling (D)July 28–29, 2020876 ± 3.2%47%39%13%
Change Research/CNBCJuly 24–26, 2020413 ± 4.8%48%44%8%
Morning ConsultJuly 17–26, 20201,320 ± 3.0%49%35%16%
CNN/SSRSJuly 18–24, 2020927 ± 3.8%54%38%8%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesJuly 19–23, 2020811 ± 3.2%52%35%13%
Gravis MarketingJuly 22, 2020754 ± 3.6%49%39%11%
Marketing Resource Group (R)July 19–21, 2020600 ± 4.0%41%34%26%
FOX NewsJuly 18–20, 2020756 ± 3.5%48%38%15%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)July 13–16, 2020600 ± 4.0%51%40%9%
Spry Strategies (R)July 11–16, 2020600 ± 3.7%47%37%15%
Change Research/CNBCJuly 10–12, 2020824 ± 2.8%50%43%6%
Public Policy Polling (D)July 9–10, 20201,041 ± 3.2%49%42%9%
Change Research/CNBCJune 26–28, 2020699 ± 3.9%49%42%9%
Public Policy Polling (D)June 26–27, 20201,237 ± 3.2%47%39%14%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)June 17–20, 2020600 ± 4.0%51%38%12%
NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeJune 8–17, 2020610 ± 4.3%41%31%29%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesJune 14–16, 2020826 ± 3.4%50%32%18%
Marketing Resource Group (R)June 12–15, 2020600 ± 4.0%36%30%33%
American Greatness/TIPP (R)June 9–12, 2020907 ± 3.3%47%35%17%
Kiaer ResearchMay 31 – June 7, 2020543 ± 6.4%48%32%20%
EPIC-MRAMay 30 – June 3, 2020600 ± 4.0%51%36%13%
Public Policy Polling (D)May 29–30, 20201,582 ± 2.5%48%39%13%
Change Research/Crooked MediaMay 11–17, 20203,070 ± 2.6%48%43%9%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)May 1–5, 2020600 ± 3.0%48%36%17%
Public Policy Polling (D)April 28–29, 20201,270 ± 3.2%46%37%17%
FOX NewsApril 18–21, 2020801 ± 3.5%46%36%13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)April 9–18, 2020600 ± 3.0%46%37%17%
Public Policy Polling (D)March 31 – April 1, 20201,019 ± 3.1%45%38%17%
Spry Strategies (R)March 30 – April 1, 2020602 ± 4.0%42%40%18%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)March 12–21, 2020600 ± 4.0%48%39%13%
Marketing Resource Group (R)March 16–20, 2020600 ± 4.0%42%35%17%
Firehouse/0ptimusMarch 5–7, 2020550 ± 5.0%40%41%11%
Quinnipiac UniversityFebruary 12–18, 2020845 ± 3.4%45%39%15%
Baldwin Wallace UniversityJanuary 8–20, 20201,023 ± 3.1%42%32%26%
Glengariff GroupJanuary 3–7, 2020600 ± 4.0%44%40%16%
Emerson CollegeOctober 31 – November 3, 20191,051 ± 3.5%46%40%14%
Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC (R)October 10–16, 2019600 ± 3.0%48%35%17%
Marketing Resource Group (R)October 7–10, 2019600 ± 4.0%43%40%17%
Target-Insyght/MIRS NewsSeptember 24–26, 2019804 ± 3.5%53%37%10%
Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC September 21–24, 2019600 ± 4.0%40%39%21%
Target InsyghtApril 22–25, 2019800 ± 3.5%50%36%14%
Emerson CollegeMarch 7–10, 2019743 ± 3.5%44%43%14%

The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary.
with Bob Carr and John James

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gary
Peters 		Bob
Carr 		John
James 		Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great LakesMarch 17–25, 2020822 ± 3.8%40%6%27%28%

with Bill Schuette

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gary
Peters 		Bill
Schuette 		Undecided
Target InsyghtApril 22–25, 2019800 ± 3.5%51%32%17%

with Gary Peters and Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gary
Peters 		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Denno Research/Vanguard PA (D)May 8–10, 2019600 ± 4.0%42%36%21%

with Gary Peters and Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gary
Peters 		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
MRGJun 12–15, 2020600 ± 4.0%19.2%30.3%50.5%

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		OtherUndecided
Glengariff Group/Detroit NewsOctober 23–25, 2020600 ± 4%47%41%––
Ipsos/ReutersSeptember 11–16, 2020637 ± 4.4%47%43%2%8%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PACAugust 11–15, 2020600 –48%39%–13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)July 13–16, 2020600 ± 4.0%49%38%–13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)June 17–20, 2020600 ± 4.0%50%34%–15%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)May 1–5, 2020600 ± 3.0%43%38%15%–
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)April 9–18, 2020600 ± 3.0%40%44%16%–
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)March 12–21, 2020600 ± 4.0%46%42%12%–

Results

Polls indicated that the race would be close, with Peters leading in most polls. In 2018, Michigan voters approved "no reason required" absentee balloting. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a record number of absentee voters. Michigan law at that time did not allow for early tabulating of absentee ballots, so the absentee ballots were tabulated after completing the tabulating of ballots from polling places. This created a "mirage" effect because more Republicans voted on election day, and more Democrats voted by absentee ballot. James was ahead when the counting of election day ballots was completed. When the absentee ballots were tabulated, and with 98% of the votes counted, Peters was declared the winner by a tight margin of one percentage point after a day of waiting. When the results were certified on November 23, Peters' margin of victory was 1.68%.
Peters was able to win re-election by running up a big margin in Wayne County, home of Detroit, winning over 67% of the vote there. He also managed to improve his performance in the reliably Democratic Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor, improving on his 2014 election by almost three percentage points. He also came within just 1,139 votes of winning Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, having lost the county by over eight percentage points six years prior. Peters was sworn in for his second term on January 3, 2021. His term will expire on January 3, 2027.
African-Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Peters winning the election.
James would later be elections in Michigan#District 10|elected] as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, James won eight of 14 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.
DistrictPetersJamesRepresentative
41%58%Jack Bergman
41%57%Bill Huizenga
45%53%Justin Amash
45%53%Peter Meijer
38%61%John Moolenaar
53%45%Dan Kildee
44%53%Fred Upton
42%56%Tim Walberg
48%51%Elissa Slotkin
56%42%Andy Levin
36%63%Paul Mitchell
36%63%Lisa McClain
50%49%Haley Stevens
63%34%Debbie Dingell
78%19%Rashida Tlaib
78%20%Brenda Lawrence

Litigation

After Peters took the lead in the election on the 4th, James refused to concede the race. The following day, James claimed that he had been cheated out of winning the election in a statement published on his campaign website. The statement said that there were " deep concerns that millions of Michiganders may have been disenfranchised by a dishonest few who cheat" and that " there is enough credible evidence to warrant an investigation to ensure that elections were conducted in a transparent, legal and fair manner." A lawyer for James' campaign alleged that fraud was committed at the TCF Center, which the Trump campaign had also attempted to claim in a dismissed lawsuit. James conceded the election to Peters on November 24.