Existential risk studies
Existential risk studies is a field of studies focused on the definition and theorization of "existential risks", its ethical implications and the related strategies of long-term survival. Existential risks are diversely defined as global kinds of calamity that have the capacity of inducing the extinction of intelligent earthling life, such as humans, or, at least, a severe limitation of their potential, as defined by ERS theorists. The field development and expansion can be divided in waves according to its conceptual changes as well as its evolving relationship with related fields and theories, such as futures studies, disaster studies, AI safety, effective altruism and longtermism.
The historical precursors of existential risks studies can be found in early 19th-century thought around human extinction and the more recent models and theories of global catastrophic risk that date mainly to the Cold War period, especially the thinking around a hypothetical nuclear holocaust. ERS emerged as a distinctive and unified field in the early 2000s, experiencing a rapid growth in the academy and also within the general public with the publication of popular-oriented books. The field has also fostered the creation of a number of foundations, research centers and think tanks, some of which received substantial philanthropic funding and notability within prestigious universities.
Background
The idea of existential risks has it prehistory in the speculation on the possibility of human extinction. The prospect of extinction is itself a break from previous religious and mythological eschatology in the measure that it is thought as an absolute and naturalistic event. As such, human extinction is a recent invention in the intellectual history of calamity.Its major historical source is present in science fiction literature. Notoriously, Lord Byron was, according to reports, concerned that a comet impact could bring the destruction of humanity, while his poem "Darkness" describes a future in which the Earth becomes lifeless. Mary Shelley's novel The Last Man provides another example of early naturalistic catastrophic imaginations, depicting the story of a man who lived through the death of the rest of humanity in the final decades of the 21st century, caused by many events such as a worldwide plague. The idea itself of the "last man" can be traced to a emerging genre of 19th century literature, originating, most probably, with Jean-Baptiste Cousin de Grainville's work, also titled as The Last Man, published by 1805, where humanity lives through a crisis of infertility. A later rendition of this theme can be found in The Time Machine, published by H.G. Wells in 1895, where a time voyager finds himself 30 million years into a future in which the Earth is nothing but a cold and almost lifeless planet, the reason being the cooling of the sun. Around the same period, Wells wrote two other text on extinction, this time as nonfiction essays, titled "On Extinction" and "The Extinction of Man". In the 20th century, human extinction persists as a theme in science fiction. Isaac Asimov not only concerned himself with the possibility of civilizational collapse in his Foundation trilogy, but also wrote a nonfiction book on the subject, titled A Choice of Catastrophes: The Disasters That Threaten Our World, and published in 1979.
Another precursory trend for existential risks is identifiable in the discourses of scientific concern for catastrophes that emerged primarily in reaction to the invention of nuclear weapons. These early responses attended especially to the possibility of an atmospheric ignition, which was soon dismissed as implausible, as well as the concern with radioactive contamination, which became a substantial and persistent theme in the discussion of possible catastrophic events. The risk engendered by radioactive particles prompted a quick mobilization among scientists and intellectuals, notoriously exemplified by the Russell–Einstein Manifesto, in 1955, which warned about the possibility of a human extinction. As a consequence, the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs was established with the purposed of reducing the threat of armed conflicts. A similar effort is also exemplified by the creation of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, gathering previous members of the Manhattan Project. The bulletin has also created and maintained the iconic Doomsday Clock with the purpose of tracking global catastrophic risk while representing in a temporal fashion.
History
First wave
The foundational moment of ERS can be dated to the publication of Nick Bostrom's 2002 essay titled "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards". In this essay, Bostrom sought to frame human extinction as a topic of philosophic pertinence to the analytic and utilitarian traditions, mainly by dissociating it from past apocalyptical literature and by presenting a schematized and holistic review of possible threats for human survival or, more generally, to its capacity of realizing its own potential, as defined by him and which stands as the canonical definition of existential risk. Conjointly, he attempted to align this study of existential risks with an insight of its overcoming by a prospect of colossal technological development, which would allow human long-term survival through outer space colonization. Most of the essay consists of the proposed classification for existential risks, which is composed by four categories, idiomatically named [|"Bangs", "Crunches", "Shrieks" and "Whimpers"], all inspired by T. S. Eliot poem "The Hollow Men".The essay brought Bostrom significant academic recognition, incentivizing the attainment of his professorship at Oxford University as well as the directorship of the now defunct Future of Humanity Institute, in 2005, which he helped to found. The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk was established by Cambridge University in 2012, which prompted its replication in other universities.
This initial rendition of existential risks established what has been termed the 'first wave' of ERS. Described as an instance of technological utopianism which is defined by its expectation, or, as Noah B. Taylor characterizes as a "teleological momentum", of a posthuman vision of the future.
Second wave
The second wave, or generation, of ERS was characterized by its elaboration effort over the foundational work of Bostrom, and was further distinguished by its growing relations and interaction with effective altruism. The emphasis on transhumanism is considered to have been reduced during this period.Third wave
After its relative institutional consolidation and the expansion of scholar engaged with the field, ERS became increasingly occupied with the issues relating to the diversity of its constituency and the need for a theoretical pluralism in its research. Some scholars of ERS focused on critical examinations of the "historically dominant" approach within the field, termed by some as the "techno-utopian approach". The so-called technological utopianism has formed the theoretical-core of ERS, drawing substantial inspiration from transhumanism, longtermism and the current of utilitarianism known as total utilitarianism. The scholars most critical of this background have claimed that it suffers from intrinsic moral unreliability and methodological flaws, which evidences the demand for new frameworks of ERS, especially the ones that enhances democratic values perceived as lacking in the original formulation.Concepts
Existential risk
The canonical definition of existential risk was proposed early by Bostrom in his essay, "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards", establishing it as a risk " where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential", implying a kind of risk which is both global and terminal. Further elaborated by Bostrom in another essay, "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority", published in 2013. This definition, consequently, excludes, or, at least, is indirectly related to forms of calamity and mass suffering that remain below the selected threshold established by theorists of ERS. Genocides and enslavement are examples of these "local terminal risk", while "global endurable risks" might range from moderate levels of global warming, threats to the biodiversity, and global economic recessions. In this sense, the 'existential' of existential risks is distinguished from other 'catastrophical' forms of risk, being essentially related to the concept of human potentiality also elaborated by Bostom. As the author himself explains:The perceived problems of this definition of existential risk, primarily relating to its scale, have stimulated other scholars of the field to prefer a more broader category, that is less exclusively related to posthuman expectations and extinctionist scenarios, such as "global catastrophic risks". Bostrom himself has partially incorporated this concept in his work, editing a book titled "Global Catastrophic Risks", still without abandoning the emphasis in the specificity of 'existential' risks for its "pan-generational" and not merely "endurable" dimension. Other proeminent theorists of the field, such as Toby Ord, remain inclined to the canonical transhumanist definition.