2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election


The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st governor of Minnesota, as incumbent Democratic Governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was U.S. Representative Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district, while the Republican Party nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson for a second consecutive time. The Independence Party of Minnesota did not field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election polls showed Walz ahead; the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.
Walz went on to defeat Johnson by the largest margin for a DFL candidate since 1986, receiving more votes than any other gubernatorial candidate in Minnesota history. This was the first Minnesota gubernatorial election since 1958 in which any party won more than two consecutive elections, as well as the first time since 1998 where the party of the incumbent president lost.

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Nominated

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tom
Bakk		Chris
Coleman		Amy
Klobuchar		Erin
Murphy		Rebecca
Otto		R. T.
Rybak		Tina
Smith		Lori
Swanson		Tim
Walz		Undecided
SurveyUSANovember 17–19, 2016––1%3%25%0%1%6%1%3%5%54%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Chris
Coleman		Tina
Liebling		Erin
Murphy		Rebecca
Otto		Lori
Swanson		Paul
Thissen		Tim
Walz		Undecided
Mason-DixonJanuary 8–10, 2018298–12%2%6%9%16%4%21%30%

Straw poll

On February 6, 2018, the DFL conducted a statewide straw poll among registered Democrats in Minnesota. Caucus-goers were scheduled to elect delegates to their party's Senate district and county conventions, which in turn would elect state convention delegates who would endorse candidates for governor, two U.S. Senate seats, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state. Congressional district delegates would endorse U.S. House candidates. Since the straw poll, the three lowest performing candidates withdrew from the race.
Congressional
unit		Total
attendance		Chris ColemanTina LieblingErin MurphyRebecca OttoPaul ThissenTim
Walz		OtherUncommitted
12,57771355107232561,5584163
23,5013842024116561201,1564523
34,2916702023868271861,3628530
46,0728542971,1111,2271391,38411897
59,5191,0194571,4001,4625372,363301,137
62,375326115294587595904375
72,1211241062744051727614273
83,8734412774741,0822637598527
Statewide34,3293,8892,0114,4576,4781,5329,933734,425
Percent-11.86%6.13%13.59%19.75%4.67%30.29%0.22%13.49%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kurt
Daudt		Keith
Downey		Tom
Emmer		Mike
McFadden		Erik
Paulsen		Tim
Pawlenty		Rich
Stanek		Undecided
SurveyUSANovember 17–19, 2016––2%1%4%2%8%19%1%64%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kurt
Daudt		Matt
Dean		Keith
Downey		Jeff
Johnson		Julie
Rosen		Mary G.
Stephens		Undecided
Mason-DixonJanuary 8–10, 2018218–12%2%1%24%4%1%54%

Results

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Declared

Predictions

Debates

The debate season began only three days after the primaries, with Johnson and Walz participating in two debates on Friday, August 17. A third debate was held on Friday, August 31.

Endorsements

Polling

with Erin Murphy and Tim Pawlenty

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Erin
Murphy 		Tim
Pawlenty 		OtherUndecided
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018876± 4.0%48%40%2%9%

with Lori Swanson and Tim Pawlenty

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Lori
Swanson 		Tim
Pawlenty 		OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%44%36%–21%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018876± 4.0%51%40%2%7%
BK StrategiesJune 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%46%41%–13%

with Tim Walz and Tim Pawlenty

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tim
Walz 		Tim
Pawlenty 		OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%44%33%–23%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018876± 4.0%51%40%1%8%
BK StrategiesJune 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%48%41%–11%

with Lori Swanson and Jeff Johnson

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Lori
Swanson 		Jeff
Johnson 		Undecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%37%32%31%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Undecided
BK StrategiesJune 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%48%42%10%
Public Policy Polling June 15–16, 2018717–46%39%16%