2014 United States Senate election in Montana


The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election.
Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock.
Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014, due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College. Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16. Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.
Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years. Daines became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1907, as well as the first to ever be popularly elected to the seat.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Polling

Poll sourceMax
Baucus		Brian
Schweitzer		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 16–19, 2011333± 5.4%34%51%—14%
Public Policy PollingNovember 28–30, 2011573± 4.1%35%51%—14%
Public Policy PollingApril 26–29, 2012332± 5.4%37%48%—15%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 10–11, 2012201± 5.4%36%40%—24%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 2013371± 5.1%35%54%—11%

Poll sourceDenise
Juneau		Brian
Schweitzer		OtherUndecided
Harper PollingApril 27–28, 2013165± 7.63%14%78%—8%

Results

Democratic convention

Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20. The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office."

Candidates

Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana.

Potential

  • Dirk Adams, rancher, businessman and former business law professor
  • John Bohlinger, former Republican Lieutenant Governor of Montana
  • Amanda Curtis, state representative
  • Linda McCulloch, secretary of state of Montana
  • Anna Whiting Sorrell, former director of the state Department of Health and Human Services and former state director of the Indian Health Services

    Withdrew

  • Franke Wilmer, state representative
  • David Wanzenried, state senator

    Declined

  • Jeff Bridges, actor and part-time Montana resident
  • Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana
  • Denise Juneau, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction
  • Nancy Keenan, former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America and former Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction
  • Monica Lindeen, Montana State Auditor
  • Stephanie Schriock, president of Emily's List and former chief of staff to Senator Jon Tester
  • Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana
  • Carol Williams, former Majority Leader of the Montana Senate and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Montana in 2000

    Endorsements

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Polling

Poll sourceSteve
Daines		Champ
Edmunds		Marc
Racicot		Corey
Stapleton		Undecided
Harper PollingApril 27–28, 2013472± 4.51%26%3%42%6%22%
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013340± 5.3%28%5%47%5%14%

Results

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

  • Roger Roots, nominee for secretary of state of Montana in 2012

    Independents

Candidates

Declined

  • John Bohlinger, former lieutenant governor of Montana
  • Sam Rankin, real estate broker

    General election

Debates

  • , October 20, 2014

    Predictions

Polling

With Adams

Poll sourceDirk
Adams 		Steve
Daines 		OtherUndecided
Harper PollingJanuary 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%20%44%—36%

with Baucus

Poll sourceMax
Baucus 		Steve
Daines 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%44%49%—7%

Poll sourceMax
Baucus 		Champ
Edmunds 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%47%37%—16%

Poll sourceMax
Baucus 		Tim
Fox 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%46%43%—11%

Poll sourceMax
Baucus 		Marc
Racicot 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%42%47%—11%

Poll sourceMax
Baucus 		Corey
Stapleton 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%45%38%—16%

With Bohlinger

Poll sourceJohn
Bohlinger 		Steve
Daines 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%36%51%—13%
Harper PollingJanuary 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%32%43%—25%
Harper PollingApril 7–8, 2014604± 4.3%33%44%—23%

Poll sourceJohn
Bohlinger 		Champ
Edmunds 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%37%39%—24%

With Juneau

Poll sourceDenise
Juneau 		Steve
Daines 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%38%48%—13%

Poll sourceDenise
Juneau 		Champ
Edmunds 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%41%34%—25%

Poll sourceDenise
Juneau 		Marc
Racicot 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%37%52%—11%

Poll sourceDenise
Juneau 		Corey
Stapleton 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%42%38%—21%

With Keenan

Poll sourceNancy
Keenan 		Steve
Daines 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%39%49%—12%

Poll sourceNancy
Keenan 		Champ
Edmunds 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%41%36%—23%

Poll sourceNancy
Keenan 		Tim
Fox 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%40%45%—15%

Poll sourceNancy
Keenan 		Marc
Racicot 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%38%50%—11%

Poll sourceNancy
Keenan 		Corey
Stapleton 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%40%40%—20%

With Lindeen

Poll sourceMonica
Lindeen 		Steve
Daines 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%37%49%—14%

Poll sourceMonica
Lindeen 		Champ
Edmunds 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%39%34%—26%

Poll sourceMonica
Lindeen 		Marc
Racicot 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%35%52%—13%

Poll sourceMonica
Lindeen 		Corey
Stapleton 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%39%37%—24%

With Schweitzer

Poll sourceBrian
Schweitzer 		Steve
Daines 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%48%45%—7%
Harper PollingApril 27–28, 2013771± 3.53%50%40%—10%
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%48%45%—7%

Poll sourceBrian
Schweitzer 		Champ
Edmunds 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%52%37%—12%
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%52%37%—11%

Poll sourceBrian
Schweitzer 		Tim
Fox 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%49%43%—8%

Poll sourceBrian
Schweitzer 		Marc
Racicot 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%45%46%—9%
Harper PollingApril 27–28, 2013771± 3.53%47%43%—10%
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%46%47%—6%

Poll sourceBrian
Schweitzer 		Corey
Stapleton 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%49%39%—13%
Public Policy PollingJune 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%52%38%—10%

With Walsh

Poll sourceJohn
Walsh 		Steve
Daines 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%35%52%—13%
Harper PollingJanuary 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%29%43%—28%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 17–18, 2014750± 4%37%51%4%9%
Magellan StrategiesApril 1–2, 20142,490± 1.96%36%49%9%6%
Harper PollingApril 7–8, 2014604± 4.3%35%42%—23%
Hickman AnalyticsApril 24–30, 2014400± 4.9%37%49%—14%
Vox Populi PollingMay 21–22, 2014806± 3.5%33%56%—11%
Magellan StrategiesJune 4–5, 2014761± 3.57%39%55%—6%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 9–10, 2014750± 4%35%53%3%9%
Public Policy PollingJuly 17–18, 2014574± 4.1%39%46%—15%
Gravis MarketingJuly 20–22, 2014741± 4%41%45%6%7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 2014838± 3.6%39%55%2%4%
Gravis MarketingJuly 24, 2014781± 3.5%38%45%9%8%
Vox Populi PollingAugust 3–4, 2014798± 3.5%34%47%—18%

Poll sourceJohn
Walsh 		Champ
Edmunds 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%36%38%—26%