2022 Arizona gubernatorial election


The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election occurred on November 8, 2022, to elect the next governor of Arizona, concurrently with other federal and state elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey was term-limited and ineligible to run for a third consecutive term. Democratic Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican former television journalist Kari Lake.
Primaries were held on August 2 for both parties, with Lake winning the Republican nomination and Hobbs winning the Democratic nomination, making this the first gubernatorial election in Arizona history in which both major party candidates for governor were women. Hobbs became the fifth female governor of Arizona, with Arizona setting a record for the most female governors in American history. With the concurrent passage of Proposition 131, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona without a lieutenant governor on the ticket.
Going into the election, most polling had Lake leading and analysts generally considered the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican. Nonetheless, Hobbs won with 50.32% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat elected governor of Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006. Lake refused to concede and filed a post-election lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the results. Most of her lawsuit was rejected by all three levels of Arizona's state courts, with the remaining part dismissed at trial in May 2023. The race was riddled with voting machine issues, but did not prove to show any evidence of election fraud.
This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. With a margin of 0.67%, it was the closest election in the state since the 1990–91 gubernatorial election and of the 2022 gubernatorial election cycle. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Hobbs won independent voters by 7 percentage points, which contributed to Lake's defeat.

Background

Arizona was a former longstanding Republican state, however the state was trending purple in recent years. In the presidential election two years prior, Democrat Joe Biden became the first Democrat to carry Arizona since 1996. In 2018 and 2020, Democrats also won the two Senate seats in the state. Additionally, Democrats took 5 of the 9 house seats in the state in the House. However, Arizona Republicans maintained control of the legislature after 2020, and won the previous governor race, maintaining a trifecta in the state.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kari
Lake		Karrin
Undecided
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsJuly 27 – August 1, 2022August 2, 202247.8%38.5%13.7%Lake +9.3

Graphical summary

Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Matt Salmon

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Karrin
Matt
Salmon		Undecided
WPA Intelligence May 12–13, 2021534 ± 4.4%10%42%48%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Polling

Graphical summary

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Eliminated in primary

Write-in candidate Barry Hess was unopposed in the Libertarian primary, but failed to secure the minimum number of votes to receive the nomination.

Certified write-in candidates

  • Anthony Camboni
  • Steph Denny
  • Mikki Lutes-Burton
  • Shawn Merrill
  • Alice Novoa
  • William Pounds IV
  • Liana West

    General election

Lake was criticized for her denial of Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. She had made her closeness to former president Donald Trump central to her campaign. Hobbs refused to debate Lake by arguing that would create a "circus", which became a highly discussed issue of the campaign, resulting in criticism from Republicans. On October 16, 2022, Lake twice refused to say that she would accept the result if she did not win the election: "I'm going to win the election, and I will accept that result."
According to Politico, the race was considered a toss-up. Lake called both the primaries and current round of elections "incompetent" and stated that "honest elections are needed" and that "the system we have right now does not work".

Debates and forums

Katie Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake, though one debate-like forum was held.

Predictions

Post-primary endorsements

Fundraising

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kari
Lake 		Katie
Hobbs 		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group November 5–7, 20221,094 ± 2.9%51%47%–3%
Data Orbital November 4–6, 2022550 ± 4.3%50%47%2%2%
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 ± 4.6%49%47%–4%
Data for Progress November 2–6, 20221,359 ± 3.0%52%48%––
Targoz Market ResearchNovember 2–6, 2022560 ± 4.1%50%48%2%–
KAConsulting November 2–3, 2022501 ± 4.4%49%45%1%6%
InsiderAdvantage November 2, 2022550 ± 4.2%51%48%–1%
HighGround Inc.November 1–2, 2022500 ± 4.4%47%45%2%6%
Remington Research Group November 1–2, 20221,075 ± 2.9%49%46%–5%
Big Data Poll October 31 – November 2, 20221,051 ± 3.0%51%47%–2%
Marist CollegeOctober 31 – November 2, 20221,157 ± 4.1%47%48%1%4%
Marist CollegeOctober 31 – November 2, 20221,015 ± 4.3%48%49%1%2%
CiviqsOctober 29 – November 2, 2022852 ± 4.2%50%48%1%–
Alloy Analytics October 30 – November 1, 2022639 ± 3.9%50%46%–4%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 1, 20221,000 ± 3.0%49%47%2%2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 1, 20221,000 ± 3.0%50%47%3%–
The Phillips AcademyOctober 29–30, 2022985 ± 3.1%53%42%–4%
Fox NewsOctober 26–30, 20221,003 ± 3.0%47%46%3%4%
Wick Insights October 26–30, 20221,122 ± 3.2%49%47%2%2%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates October 24–26, 2022800 ± 3.5%50%47%––
OH Predictive InsightsOctober 24–26, 2022600 ± 4.0%49%47%–4%
Siena College/NYTOctober 24–26, 2022604 ± 4.4%48%48%–4%
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.October 19–26, 20221,000 ± 3.1%42%40%3%14%
InsiderAdvantage October 24–25, 2022550 ± 4.2%54%43%–2%
co/efficient October 20–21, 20221,111 ± 3.1%49%45%–6%
Data Orbital October 17–19, 2022550 ± 4.3%47%44%3%6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 14–18, 2022600 ± 4.0%47%48%2%3%
The Trafalgar Group October 16–17, 20221,078 ± 2.9%49%46%–4%
Data for Progress October 11–17, 2022893 ± 3.0%50%46%–4%
Wick Insights October 8–14, 20221,058 ± 3.1%47%47%2%3%
HighGround Inc.October 12–13, 2022500 ± 4.3%45%46%2%7%
InsiderAdvantage October 11, 2022550 ± 4.2%49%46%–4%
Ascend Action October 8–10, 2022954 ± 3.2%46%45%5%5%
Big Data Poll October 2–5, 2022974 ± 3.1%49%46%1%6%
YouGov/CBS NewsSeptember 30 – October 4, 20221,164 ± 3.8%49%49%–1%
CNN/SSRSSeptember 26 – October 2, 2022900 ± 4.4%44%49%7%–
CNN/SSRSSeptember 26 – October 2, 2022795 ± 4.6%46%49%5%–
Fox NewsSeptember 22–26, 20221,008 ± 3.0%43%44%6%7%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 21–25, 2022500 ± 4.4%45%46%–8%
Marist CollegeSeptember 19–22, 20221,260 ± 3.6%46%45%<1%8%
Marist CollegeSeptember 19–22, 20221,076 ± 3.9%49%46%–5%
Data for Progress September 15–19, 2022768 ± 4.0%51%47%–3%
The Trafalgar Group September 14–17, 20221,080 ± 2.9%50%46%–4%
Fabrizio Ward /Impact Research September 8–15, 2022500 ± 4.4%48%49%–3%
Survey Monkey September 6–9, 2022972 ± 3.0%37%49%–14%
Survey Monkey September 6–9, 2022563 ± 3.0%39%53%–8%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 6–7, 2022627 ± 3.9%46%46%2%6%
InsiderAdvantage September 6–7, 2022550 ± 4.2%43%44%–13%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022773 ± 4.5%40%50%–10%
The Trafalgar Group August 24–27, 20221,074 ± 2.9%47%46%3%5%
RMG ResearchAugust 16–22, 2022750 ± 3.6%46%44%–9%
Fox NewsAugust 12–16, 20221,012 ± 3.0%44%47%2%6%
American Viewpoint August 2022– –46%47%3%4%
Beacon Research July 5–20, 2022802 ± 3.5%38%43%2%12%
Beacon Research July 5–20, 2022504 ± 4.4%40%49%3%7%
TargetSmart June 28–30, 2022704 ± 3.7%38%47%7%8%
GQR Research May 9–15, 2022400 ± 4.9%45%50%–4%
Data Orbital February 11–13, 20221,000 ± 3.1%43%41%–16%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 10, 2021624 ± 3.9%34%39%2%19%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 10, 2021592 ± 4.0%37%41%2%18%

Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Katie Hobbs

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Karrin
Katie
Hobbs 		OtherUndecided
Beacon Research July 5–20, 2022802 ± 3.5%37%42%4%13%
Beacon Research July 5–20, 2022504 ± 4.4%40%48%5%7%
TargetSmart June 28–30, 2022704 ± 3.7%39%44%10%7%
GQR Research May 9–15, 2022400 ± 4.9%46%47%–4%
Data Orbital February 11–13, 20221,000 ± 3.1%37%42%–21%

Matt Salmon vs. Katie Hobbs

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Salmon 		Katie
Hobbs 		OtherUndecided
Data Orbital February 11–13, 20221,000 ± 3.1%39%41%–20%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 10, 2021624 ± 3.9%31%40%4%17%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 10, 2021592 ± 4.0%35%43%4%16%

Steve Gaynor vs. Katie Hobbs

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Steve
Gaynor 		Katie
Hobbs 		Undecided
Data Orbital February 11–13, 20221,000 ± 3.1%39%41%20%

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
OH Predictive InsightsMarch 7–15, 2022753 ± 3.6%39%37%25%
OH Predictive InsightsJanuary 11–13, 2022855 ± 3.4%39%35%26%
OH Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021713 ± 3.7%39%37%24%
OH Predictive InsightsSeptember 7–12, 2021882 ± 3.3%39%36%25%
Data for Progress September 15–22, 2020481 ± 4.4%42%39%19%