2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary
The 2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Ohio primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, along with the Democratic contest in Ohio.
The primary was won by the state's incumbent governor, John Kasich.
Background
In the 2012 Republican primary elections, the Ohio primary was a winner-take-most primary scheduled for the 6th of March. However, the state's winner, Mitt Romney, only reached 37% of the vote and thus only won 58% of the state's delegates. House Bill 153, signed by Governor Kasich, moved the primary to March 15 for the 2016 contest, in what would be dubbed a second Super Tuesday by several news networks. In addition, in mid-September, Ohio's Republican Party decided on making the state's 66 delegates completely winner-take-all, in order to maximize the state's power on the nominating convention and to avoid a similar problem to what happened in 2012. This was also expected to help John Kasich, as the state's governor.The state of the campaign
Previous contests
Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.Run-up to the election
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
| March 15, 2016 | John Kasich 46.95% | Donald Trump 35.87% | Ted Cruz 13.31% | Marco Rubio 2.34%, Ben Carson 0.72%, Jeb Bush 0.27%, Mike Huckabee 0.25%, Chris Christie 0.12%, Carly Fiorina 0.11%, Rick Santorum 0.07% | |
| ARG Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 400 | March 12–13, 2016 | John Kasich 44% | Donald Trump 38% | Ted Cruz 12% | Marco Rubio 2%, Undecided 4% |
| Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 503 | March 11–13, 2016 | John Kasich 40% | Donald Trump 35% | Ted Cruz 15% | Marco Rubio 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 721 | March 8–13, 2016 | Donald Trump 38% | John Kasich 38% | Ted Cruz 16% | Marco Rubio 3%, Undecided 4% |
| CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 798 | March 9–11, 2016 | John Kasich 33% | Donald Trump 33% | Ted Cruz 27% | Marco Rubio 5%, No Preference 2% |
| NBC News/WSJ/Marist Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 564 | March 4–10, 2016 | John Kasich 39% | Donald Trump 33% | Ted Cruz 19% | Marco Rubio 6% |
| Fox News Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 806 | March 5–8, 2016 | John Kasich 34% | Donald Trump 29% | Ted Cruz 19% | Marco Rubio 7%, Undecided 5%, Other 3%, None of the above 2% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 685 | March 2–7, 2016 | Donald Trump 38% | John Kasich 32% | Ted Cruz 16% | Marco Rubio 9%, Undecided 5% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 638 | March 4–6, 2016 | Donald Trump 38% | John Kasich 35% | Ted Cruz 15% | Marco Rubio 5%, Undecided 5% |
| CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 359 | March 2–6, 2016 | Donald Trump 41% | John Kasich 35% | Ted Cruz 15% | Marco Rubio 7% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 759 | February 16–20, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | John Kasich 26% | Ted Cruz 21% | Marco Rubio 13%, Ben Carson 5%, Someone else 0%, DK/NA 5% |
| Baldwin Wallace University Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 440 | February 11–20, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | John Kasich 29% | Ted Cruz 11% | Marco Rubio 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 3%, Don't Know 8% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 433 | September 25 – October 5, 2015 | Donald Trump 23% | Ben Carson 18% | John Kasich 13% | Ted Cruz 11%, Carly Fiorina 10%, Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Would not vote 2%, DK/NA 6% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: 371 | August 7–18, 2015 | John Kasich 27% | Donald Trump 21% | Ted Cruz 7% | Marco Rubio 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Don't know 11% |
| Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 413 | June 4–15, 2015 | John Kasich 19% | Jeb Bush 9% | Scott Walker 8% | Marco Rubio 7%, Rand Paul 7%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Rick Perry 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1%, Don't know 17% |
| Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 411 | June 4–7, 2015 | John Kasich 19% | Ben Carson 13% | Scott Walker 13% | Jeb Bush 12%, Marco Rubio 12%, Rand Paul 9%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Someone Else/Not Sure 8% |
Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 404 | March 17–28, 2015 | John Kasich 20% | Ted Cruz 9% | Mike Huckbee 9% | Scott Walker 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15% |
Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 404 | March 17–28, 2015 | John Kasich 22% | Scott Walker 10% | Ted Cruz 9% | Mike Huckabee 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Perry 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 17% |
Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 404 | March 17–28, 2015 | John Kasich 22% | Ted Cruz 11% | Jeb Bush 9% | Ben Carson 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15% |
Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 337 | January 22 – February 1, 2015 | Mitt Romney 15% | John Kasich 11% | Scott Walker 10% | Jeb Bush 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Ted Cruz 5%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 18% |
Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 337 | January 22 – February 1, 2015 | John Kasich 14% | Scott Walker 11% | Jeb Bush 10% | Rand Paul 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 20% |
Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 300 | April 14–15, 2014 | Mike Huckabee 17% | Rand Paul 15% | Jeb Bush 13% | Chris Christie 13%, Ted Cruz 12%, John Kasich 10%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 4%, Undecided 11% |
Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 357 | Aug. 16–19, 2013 | Chris Christie 17% | Rand Paul 17% | Jeb Bush 10% | Marco Rubio 9%, John Kasich 8%, Paul Ryan 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Someone Else/Undecided 17% |
The opinion polls during early March showed a narrow lead for Trump over Governor Kasich. These polls found approximately 10% support for Marco Rubio, in a distant fourth place. Seeing that many Rubio voters also preferred Governor Kasich as "establishment" voters, Rubio's communications director encouraged Rubio voters to vote for Kasich on March 11. The strategy seemed to work, as Kasich drew narrowly ahead in the polls immediately before the election. Kasich was seen as a slight favorite to take the state immediately before the primary.