Unintended consequences
In the social sciences, unintended consequences are outcomes of a purposeful action that are not intended or foreseen. The term was popularized in the 20th century by American sociologist Robert K. Merton.
Unintended consequences can be grouped into three types:
- Unexpected benefit: A positive unexpected benefit.
- Unexpected drawback: An unexpected detriment occurring in addition to the desired effect of the policy.
- Perverse result: A perverse effect contrary to what was originally intended.
History
John Locke
The idea of unintended consequences dates back at least to John Locke who discussed the unintended consequences of interest rate regulation in his letter to Sir John Somers, Member of Parliament.Adam Smith
The idea was also discussed by Adam Smith, the Scottish Enlightenment, and consequentialism.The invisible hand theorem is an example of the unintended consequences of agents acting in their self-interest. As Andrew S. Skinner puts it:
"The individual undertaker, seeking the most efficient allocation of resources, contributes to overall economic efficiency; the merchant's reaction to price signals helps to ensure that the allocation of resources accurately reflects the structure of consumer preferences; and the drive to better our condition contributes to economic growth."
Marx and Engels
Influenced by 19th century positivism and Charles Darwin's evolution, for both Friedrich Engels and Karl Marx, the idea of uncertainty and chance in social dynamics was only apparent, since social actions were directed and produced by deliberate human intention.While discerning between the forces that generate changes in nature and those that generate changes in history in his discussion of Ludwig Feuerbach, Friedrich Engels touched on the idea of unintended consequences:
For his part, for Karl Marx what can be understood as unintended consequences are actually consequences that should be expected but are obtained unconsciously. These consequences would be product of conflicts that confront actions from countless individuals. The deviation between the original intended goal and the product derived from conflicts would be a marxist equivalent to «unintended consequences.»
This social conflicts would happen as a result of a competitive society, and also lead society to sabotage itself and prevent historical progress. Thus, historical progress should eliminate these conflicts and make unintended consequences predictable.
Austrian School
Unintended consequences are a common topic of study and commentary for the Austrian school of economics given its emphasis on methodological individualism. This is to such an extent that unexpected consequences can be considered as a distinctive part of Austrian tenets.Carl Menger
In "Principles of Economics", Austrian school founder Carl Menger noted that the relationships that occur in the economy are so intricate that a change in the condition of a single good can have ramifications beyond that good. Menger wrote:Friedrich Hayek and Catallactics
Economist and philosopher Friedrich Hayek is another key figure in the Austrian School of Economics who is notable for his comments on unintended consequences.In "The Use of Knowledge in Society" Hayek argues that a centrally planned economy cannot reach the level of efficiency of the free market economy because the necessary information for decision-making is not concentrated but dispersed among a vast number of agents. Then, for Hayek, the price system in the free market allows the members of a society to anonymously coordinate for the most efficient use of resources, for example, in a situation of scarcity of a raw material, the price increase would coordinate the actions of an uncountable amount of individuals "in the right direction".
The development of this system of interactions would allow the progress of society, and individuals would carry it out without knowing all its implications, given the dispersion of information.
The implication of this is that the social order, would be result of a spontaneous cooperation and also an unintended consequence, being born from a process of which no individual or group had all the information available or could know all possible outcomes.
In the Austrian school, this process of social adjustment that generates a social order in an unintendedly way is known as catallactics.
For Hayek and the Austrian School, the number of individuals involved in the process of creating a social order defines the type of unintended consequence:
- If the process involves interactions and decision making of as many individuals as possible, this process of "catallaxy" will lead to unexpected benefits
- On the other hand, attempts by individuals or limited groups to achieve a new or better order, will end in unexpected drawbacks.
Robert K. Merton
In "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action", Merton tried to apply a systematic analysis to the problem of unintended consequences of deliberate acts intended to cause social change. He emphasized that his term purposive action, " concerned with 'conduct' as distinct from 'behavior.' That is, with action that involves motives and consequently a choice between various alternatives". Merton's usage included deviations from what Max Weber defined as rational social action: instrumentally rational and value rational. Merton also stated that "no blanket statement categorically affirming or denying the practical feasibility of all social planning is warranted."
Everyday usage
More recently, the law of unintended consequences has come to be used as an adage or idiomatic warning that an intervention in a complex system tends to create unanticipated and often undesirable outcomes.Akin to Murphy's law, it is commonly used as a wry or humorous warning against the hubristic belief that humans can fully control the world around them, not to presuppose a belief in predestination or a lack or a disbelief in that of free will.
Causes
Possible causes of unintended consequences include the world's inherent complexity, perverse incentives, human stupidity, self-deception, failure to account for human nature, or other cognitive or emotional biases. As a sub-component of complexity, the chaotic nature of the universe—and especially its quality of having small, apparently insignificant changes with far-reaching effects —applies.In 1936, Robert K. Merton listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences:
- Ignorance, making it impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis.
- Errors in analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation.
- Immediate interests overriding long-term interests.
- Basic values which may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavourable.
- Self-defeating prophecy, or, the fear of some consequence which drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is not anticipated.
Types
Unexpected benefits
The creation of "no-man's lands" during the Cold War, in places such as the border between Eastern and Western Europe, and the Korean Demilitarized Zone, has led to large natural habitats.The sinking of ships in shallow waters during wartime has created many artificial coral reefs, which can be scientifically valuable and have become an attraction for recreational divers. This led to the deliberate sinking of retired ships for the purpose of replacing coral reefs lost to global warming and other factors.
In medicine, most drugs have unintended consequences associated with their use. However, some are beneficial. For instance, aspirin, a pain reliever, is also an anticoagulant that can help prevent heart attacks and reduce the severity and damage from thrombotic strokes. Beneficial side effects have also lead to off-label use prescription or use of a drug for an unlicensed purpose. Famously, the drug Viagra was developed to lower blood pressure, with its use for treating erectile dysfunction being discovered as a side effect in clinical trials.
In papal conclave journalism, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the elected leader of all the bishops of Africa, by early 2024 had come to be regarded as papabile for his adroit handling of the issue of blessing same sex unions, to which he is staunchly opposed.
Unexpected drawbacks
The implementation of a profanity filter by AOL in 1996 had the unintended consequence of blocking residents of Scunthorpe, North Lincolnshire, England, from creating accounts because of a false positive. The accidental censorship of innocent language, known as the Scunthorpe problem, has been repeated and widely documented.In 1990, the Australian state of Victoria made safety helmets mandatory for all bicycle riders. While there was a reduction in the number of head injuries, there was also an unintended reduction in the number of juvenile cyclists—fewer cyclists obviously leads to fewer injuries, all else being equal. The risk of death and serious injury per cyclist seems to have increased, possibly because of risk compensation. Research by Vulcan et al. found that the reduction in juvenile cyclists was because the youths considered wearing a bicycle helmet unfashionable. A health-benefit model developed at Macquarie University in Sydney suggests that, while helmet use reduces "the risk of head or brain injury by approximately two-thirds or more", the decrease in exercise caused by reduced cycling as a result of helmet laws is counterproductive in terms of net health.
Prohibition in the 1920s United States, originally enacted to suppress the alcohol trade, drove many small-time alcohol suppliers out of business and consolidated the hold of large-scale organized crime over the illegal alcohol industry. Since alcohol was still popular, criminal organisations producing alcohol were well-funded and hence also increased their other activities. Similarly, the war on drugs, intended to suppress the illegal drug trade, instead increased the power and profitability of drug cartels who became the primary source of the products.
In CIA jargon, "blowback" describes the unintended, undesirable consequences of covert operations, such as the funding of the Afghan Mujahideen and the destabilization of Afghanistan contributing to the rise of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
The introduction of exotic animals and plants for food, for decorative purposes, or to control unwanted species often leads to more harm than good done by the introduced species.
- The introduction of rabbits in Australia and New Zealand for food was followed by an explosive growth in the rabbit population; rabbits have become a major feral pest in these countries.
- Cane toads, introduced into Australia to control canefield pests, were unsuccessful and have become a major pest in their own right.
- Kudzu, introduced to the US as an ornamental plant in 1876 and later used to prevent erosion in earthworks, has become a major problem in the Southeastern United States. Kudzu has displaced native plants and has effectively taken over significant portions of land.