Top-four primary
A final-four or final-five primary is an electoral system using a nonpartisan primary by multi-winner plurality in the first step.
The Final-Four Voting system was first proposed by businessmen Katherine Gehl and Michael Porter in a 2017 report entitled "Why Competition in the Politics Industry is Failing America". It was first advocated by FairVote in 2012. FairVote proposed a statutory model in 2015.
It was first used in the 2022 Alaska special election.
A top-four primary can be seen as a variation of a two-round system, in which the second round is always held, even if a candidate gains a majority in the first round. A candidate receiving 20% of the primary vote is logically guaranteed to pass a top-four primary. One variation, called Final Five Voting, allows five candidates to pass the open primary.
Usage
Top-four
Alaska
The 2020 Alaska Measure 2 initiative in Alaska for top-four primary narrowly passed with 50.55% of the vote. It will be used for all state and federal elections except presidential elections.The Alaskan Independence Party sued, declaring Ballot Measure 2 as unconstitutional. On January 19, 2022, the Alaska Supreme Court ruled that the measure was constitutional.
The nonpartisan primary is held using first past the post, with voters allowed one vote, and the four candidates with the most votes advancing to the general. The general election ballot allows candidates to be ranked, using Instant-runoff voting elimination to identify a majority winner. The first top-four primary election occurred on August 16, 2022.
For Alaska's 2022 at-large congressional district special election, 48 candidates registered. Nine candidates were invited to a first panel discussion organized as an industry forum: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats and 2 independents, based on various criteria. Although there were 48 candidates, the top-4 candidates gained 68.8% of the vote in the June special election primary: Sarah Palin 27.01%, Nick Begich III 19.12%, Al Gross 12.63%, and Mary Peltola 10.08%. The 5th-finishing candidate, Tara Sweeney, had 5.92%.
Al Gross withdrew after the primary, and suggested that 5th-place Sweeney should be included in the final ballot, but this was not allowed.
In the first round of the general election, Republican votes were split between first-rank preferences for Palin and Begich, creating a spoiler effect known as a center squeeze. Begich was eliminated first. In the instant runoff, Begich voters split their second choices between Palin and Peltola, and Peltola won. Despite Begich's greater overall popularity, Palin's second-choice votes were not allowed to transfer to Begich.
The highest-profile election held under the new system has been the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Alaska. Moderate Lisa Murkowski was reelected after not having to win a Republican primary that she narrowly lost twelve years earlier.
In 2024, Alaskans narrowly voted down a measure to repeal the system and return to partisan primaries. 50.11% voted to keep the system.
Missouri
The Better Elections campaign of Missouri collected 300,000 signature for a Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting for local, state, and Federal Officials, needing 160,199 valid signatures. The initiative would have been voted on in November 2022. But the legislature required the signatures to be distributed among six congressional districts to qualify, and the campaign did not collect enough in Missouri's 1st District. The initiative was rejected. The ballot initiative will be attempted again.Top-five
Petitions sponsored by Katherine M. Gehl and Institute for Political Innovation.Nevada
After a petition by Nevada Voters First for a Top-Five Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative received the minimum number of signatures, the proposal appeared on the ballot in November 2022.The initiative proposed to amend the Nevada Constitution to establish open top-five primaries and instant-runoff voting for general elections. It would allow the 35% of voters who are not registered to a party to influence the candidates who advance to the general election. The change would apply to congressional, gubernatorial, state executive offices, and state legislative elections. Implementing legislation would need to be adopted by July 1, 2025.
It was narrowly approved by voters in 2022, and needed to be approved again in 2024 to take effect. It was narrowly rejected.
Benefits
; More choices for voters while protecting majority rule; Not too many choices
; All voters help decide who advances
Drawbacks
Vote splitting
Primary
With a pick-one, top-four primary, advancing top-four candidates maintains a threat of vote splitting, though to a lesser degree than a pick-one nonpartisan blanket primary top-two primary. There may be multiple candidates eliminated below fourth place, while some could have advanced if fewer candidates had run and split their vote. For illustration, a party with 48% could theoretically win all top-four if their four candidates each earned 12%, while a stronger 52% majority party might equally split their votes at 10.4% each and lose all five candidates. Vote-splitting will be experienced as threatening to parties who may lose all their candidates, compared to a closed primary where one candidate from each party always advances. To avoid vote-splitting for the general election, parties must still try to discourage too many candidates running under their label, and party voters need to be informed which candidates are most likely to advance to avoid wasting their vote. The use of [|sequential-elimination ranked IRV in the primary] can lessen the effects of vote splitting.General
Vote splitting can also be an issue in the ranked-choice voting general election. Candidates are eliminated based only on first-choice votes, which become split between similar candidates vying for them. The transfer of votes between candidates can mitigate this effect somewhat but does not eliminate it in the general case, as advocates claim. Multiple candidates from the same party can split the vote due to vote exhaustion, where voters do not rank all candidates on a ballot. This can result in the winner of the election being elected by a minority of voters.In the 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, a super PAC linked to the Democratic Party spent money to elevate three Republican candidates into the general election. Politico stated it would be easier for the Democratic incumbent, Mary Peltola to win "if three Republicans are splitting the GOP vote".
Voter deception
Lawyer Kenneth Jacobus, who filed an unsuccessful 2021 lawsuit against Alaska's top-four primary, argued that because political parties cannot nominate candidates, the system violates parties' freedom of association and makes it easier for candidates to deceive voters. For example, a left-wing candidate could run under the Republican Party label in order to get votes. Alaska Assistant Attorney General Margaret Paton-Walsh argued in response that political parties could still influence the election by endorsing and providing support for candidates.Variations
The uniting feature of all variations is to reduce the field of candidates in a primary round, and confirming a majority winner in the general election. Ranked ballots enables a majority winner among more than two candidates.Final Five Voting
Primary
; Pick-One, Top-Four Advance; Use IRV Sequential-Elimination for Top-Four
; Minimum Thresholds in Top-Four
An argument in favor of a pick-one top-four primary is that people's first rank choices are most important and the eventual winner of the election will most likely be among the top-four first-rank choices. A pick-one top-four primary can be considered a single non-transferable vote system. An argument in favor of using IRV sequential-elimination in the primary is that more voters help pick the top-four, and marginally more will be happy with supporting at least one in the general election.
Post-primary
; Voluntary Drop-out Between Primary and General| Sequential | Top-two |
General
; Sequential-Elimination IRV in General election; Top-two Advancement or Batch-style Elimination IRV in General election
; Condorcet Methods or Round Robin Voting in General election
Summary
All of these variations, including a traditional nonpartisan blanket primary, allow a majority to confirm the winner.- A top-four primary allows twice as many choices in the general election as a top-two.
- A sequential-elimination IRV process in the primary is important because the primary is best designed to help like-minded voters consolidate to their strongest collective choice.
- *Including a floor threshold with batch-elimination and consolidation threshold with sequential-elimination in the primary will help advance only the strongest candidates, which may be less than four.
- A top-two IRV process in the general election may be preferred because the consolidation process is complete and voters for the top-two first-rank candidates will feel they have earned the right to compete head-to-head.
- A Round Robin Voting or Condorcet process in the general election may be preferred because it more deeply reflects voters will by using all ranked preferences, rather than just top ones.
| # | Round one | Round two | Implementations |
| Pick-one, top-two advance | Pick-one | Traditional nonpartisan blanket primary | |
| 1 | Pick-one, top-four advance | Top-two IRV | |
| 2 | Pick-one, top-four advance | Ranked IRV, sequential-elimination | Alaska |
| 3 | Ranked-choice, sequential-elimination until at most four remain | Ranked IRV, sequential-elimination | |
| 4 | Ranked-choice, sequential-elimination until at most four remain | Top-two IRV | |
| 5 | Round-robin voting |