Standard error
The standard error of a statistic is the standard deviation of its sampling distribution. The standard error is often used in calculations of confidence intervals.
The sampling distribution of a mean is generated by repeated sampling from the same population and recording the sample mean per sample. This forms a distribution of different sample means, and this distribution has its own mean and variance. Mathematically, the variance of the sampling mean distribution obtained is equal to the variance of the population divided by the sample size. This is because as the sample size increases, sample means cluster more closely around the population mean.
Therefore, the relationship between the standard error of the mean and the standard deviation is such that, for a given sample size, the standard error of the mean equals the standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size. In other words, the standard error of the mean is a measure of the dispersion of sample means around the population mean.
In regression analysis, the term "standard error" refers either to the square root of the reduced chi-squared statistic or the standard error for a particular regression coefficient.
Standard error of the sample mean
Exact value
Suppose a statistically independent sample of observations is taken from a statistical population with a standard deviation of . The mean value calculated from the sample, will have an associated standard error on the mean, given by:Practically this tells us that when trying to estimate the value of a population mean, due to the factor, reducing the error on the estimate by a factor of two requires acquiring four times as many observations in the sample; reducing it by a factor of ten requires a hundred times as many observations.
Estimate
The standard deviation of the population being sampled is seldom known. Therefore, the standard error of the mean is usually estimated by replacing with the sample standard deviation instead:As this is only an estimator for the true "standard error", it is common to see other notations here such as:
A common source of confusion occurs when failing to distinguish clearly between:
- the standard deviation of the population,
- the standard deviation of the sample,
- the standard deviation of the sample mean itself, and
- the estimator of the standard deviation of the sample mean.
Accuracy of the estimator
Derivation
The standard error on the mean may be derived from the variance of a sum of independent random variables, given the definition of variance and some properties thereof. If is a sample of independent observations from a population with mean and standard deviation, then we can define the total which due to the Bienaymé formula, will have varianceThe mean of these measurements is given by The variance of the mean is then
where a propagation in variance is used in the 2nd equality. The standard error is, by definition, the standard deviation of which is the square root of the variance:
In other words, if there are a large number of observations per sampling, then the calculated mean per sample is expected to be close to the population mean.
For correlated random variables, the sample variance needs to be computed according to the Markov chain central limit theorem.
Independent and identically distributed random variables with random sample size
There are cases when a sample is taken without knowing, in advance, how many observations will be acceptable according to some criterion. In such cases, the sample size is a random variable whose variation adds to the variation of such that,which follows from the law of total variance.
If has a Poisson distribution, then with estimator. Hence the estimator of becomes, leading the following formula for standard error:
.
Student approximation when ''σ'' value is unknown
In many practical applications, the true value of σ is unknown. As a result, we need to use a distribution that takes into account that spread of possible σ's.When the true underlying distribution is known to be Gaussian, although with unknown σ, then the resulting estimated distribution follows the Student t-distribution. The standard error is the standard deviation of the Student t-distribution. T-distributions are slightly different from Gaussian, and vary depending on the size of the sample. Small samples are somewhat more likely to underestimate the population standard deviation and have a mean that differs from the true population mean, and the Student t-distribution accounts for the probability of these events with somewhat heavier tails compared to a Gaussian. To estimate the standard error of a Student t-distribution it is sufficient to use the sample standard deviation "s" instead of σ, and we could use this value to calculate confidence intervals.
Note: The Student's probability distribution is approximated well by the Gaussian distribution when the sample size is over 100. For such samples one can use the latter distribution, which is much simpler. Also, even though the 'true' distribution of the population is unknown, assuming normality of the sampling distribution makes sense for a reasonable sample size, and under certain sampling conditions, see CLT. If these conditions are not met, then using a Bootstrap distribution to estimate the Standard Error is often a good workaround, but it can be computationally intensive.
Assumptions and usage
An example of how is used to make confidence intervals of the unknown population mean is shown. If the sampling distribution is normally distributed, the sample mean, the standard error, and the quantiles of the normal distribution can be used to calculate confidence intervals for the true population mean. The following expressions can be used to calculate the upper and lower 95% confidence limits, where is for the sample mean, is for the standard error for the sample mean, and 1.96 is the approximate value of the 97.5 percentile point of the normal distribution:In particular, the standard error of a sample statistic is the actual or estimated standard deviation of the sample mean in the process by which it was generated. In other words, it is the actual or estimated standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample statistic. The notation for standard error can be any one of SE, SEM, or SE.
Standard errors provide simple measures of uncertainty in a value and are often used because:
- in many cases, if the standard error of several individual quantities is known then the standard error of some function of the quantities can be easily calculated;
- when the probability distribution of the value is known, it can be used to calculate an exact confidence interval;
- when the probability distribution is unknown, Chebyshev's or the Vysochanskiï–Petunin inequalities can be used to calculate a conservative confidence interval; and
- as the sample size tends to infinity the central limit theorem guarantees that the sampling distribution of the mean is asymptotically normal.
Standard error of mean versus standard deviation
Put simply, the standard error of the sample mean is an estimate of how far the sample mean is likely to be from the population mean, whereas the standard deviation of the sample is the degree to which individuals within the sample differ from the sample mean. If the population standard deviation is finite, the standard error of the mean of the sample will tend to zero with increasing sample size, because the estimate of the population mean will improve, while the standard deviation of the sample will tend to approximate the population standard deviation as the sample size increases.
Extensions
Finite population correction (FPC)
The formula given above for the standard error assumes that the population is infinite. Nonetheless, it is often used for finite populations when people are interested in measuring the process that created the existing finite population. Though the above formula is not exactly correct when the population is finite, the difference between the finite- and infinite-population versions will be small when sampling fraction is small. In this case people often do not correct for the finite population, essentially treating it as an "approximately infinite" population.If one is interested in measuring an existing finite population that will not change over time, then it is necessary to adjust for the population size. When the sampling fraction is large in an enumerative study, the estimate of the standard error must be corrected by multiplying by a
which, for large N:
to account for the added precision gained by sampling close to a larger percentage of the population. The effect of the FPC is that the error becomes zero when the sample size n is equal to the population size N.
This happens in survey methodology when sampling without replacement. If sampling with replacement, then FPC does not come into play.