1938 New England hurricane
The 1938 New England Hurricane was one of the deadliest and most destructive tropical cyclones to strike the United States. The storm formed near the coast of Africa on September 9, becoming a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale, before making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on Long Island on Wednesday, September 21. It is estimated that the hurricane killed 682 people, damaged or destroyed more than 57,000 homes and caused property losses estimated at $306 million. Also, numerous others estimate the real damage between $347 million and almost $410 million. Damaged trees and buildings were still seen in the affected areas as late as 1951. It remains the most powerful and deadliest hurricane to ever strike New York State and New England in history, perhaps eclipsed in landfall intensity only by the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635.
The storm developed into a tropical depression on September 9 off the coast of West Africa, but the United States Weather Bureau was unaware that a tropical cyclone existed until September 16 when ships reported strong winds and rough seas 350 miles northeast of San Juan; by then, it was already a well-developed hurricane and had tracked westward toward the southeastern Bahamas. It reached hurricane strength on September 15 and continued to strengthen to a peak intensity of near the southeastern Bahamas four days later, making it a Category 5-equivalent hurricane. The storm was propelled northward, rapidly paralleling the East Coast before making landfalls on Long Island and Connecticut as a Category 3 hurricane on September 21, with estimated sustained winds of 115–120 mph. After moving inland, it transitioned into an extratropical cyclone and dissipated over Ontario on September 23.
Meteorological history
The Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project analyzed the 1938 Atlantic hurricane season in 2012, and Weather Bureau forecaster Ivan Ray Tannehill noted that the knowledge of the storm's existence at the time remained tenuous until September 17 when the cyclone had already increased to a hurricane. Based on land and marine observations, the reanalysis project concluded that the 1938 hurricane began as a tropical depression just off the coast of West Africa at 12:00 UTC on September 9, becoming the sixth tropical cyclone of the season. The depression gradually strengthened, becoming a tropical storm less than a day after tropical cyclogenesis. It was inferred to have reached hurricane intensity over the central Atlantic by September 15, though ship observations became increasingly sparse as the cyclone tracked farther away from land. The first definitive indication of a tropical cyclone at sea was a report from the Brazilian ship SS Alegrete which documented a barometric pressure of 958 mbar within hurricane-force winds on September 17. Based on this observation, the hurricane had maximum sustained winds of, making it the equivalent of a high-end Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.The hurricane continued to slowly strengthen and track westward at around about the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the Bermuda. On September 18, a strong extratropical cyclone developed just west of Chicago, generating a strong influx of cooler air from Canada into the eastern United States and thus forming a sharp cold front over the region; this frontal boundary resulted in a channel of moist, tropical air being steered northwards into New England. At 18:00 UTC on September 19, the tropical cyclone strengthened further into a Category 5-equivalent hurricane with sustained winds of while north of the Turks and Caicos; this figure remained unchanged in reanalysis and serves as the storm's peak strength, although the reanalysis project noted that "considerable uncertainty" remains regarding the magnitude of the storm's maximum intensity at sea. Concurrently, the hurricane began to interact with the cold front over the East Coast, causing the tropical cyclone to curve northward towards the northeastern United States; the presence of the subtropical ridge to the east and the stationary nature of the frontal boundary prevented the storm from continuing to curve out to sea.
As the hurricane accelerated northward, it gradually weakened. On the morning of September 21, it passed roughly east of Cape Hatteras. At 12:00 UTC that day, the storm was estimated to have a barometric pressure of ; this is the hurricane's lowest documented pressure. At 19:45 UTC, the hurricane made landfall on Long Island over Bellport, New York with maximum sustained winds of and a pressure of, making it the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the New York City area. It was moving rapidly northward at, enhancing the intensity of the winds east of the center; in addition, its forward motion displaced its center of circulation away from the point of minimum barometric pressure. Weather Bureau forecaster Charles Pierce argued that the hurricane became extratropical off of the Outer Banks, though Charles J. Neumann, Frances P. Ho, and the Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project suggested that it was tropical but in the process of extratropical transition at landfall. Afterwards, it quickly tracked across Long Island and Long Island Sound before making a second and final landfall near New Haven, Connecticut as a slightly weaker hurricane with winds of, making it one of only three recorded tropical cyclones to hit Connecticut as major hurricanes since 1900. The storm rapidly weakened, completing extratropical transition over Vermont by 00:00 UTC on September 22. Following this transition, the remnants continued to weaken before they dissipated over southeastern Ontario on September 23.
Forecasting the storm
The 1938 hurricane surprised the United States Weather Bureau in that it did not take the typical track as it approached the area of the southeastern Bahamas. Normally, tropical cyclones approach the eastern Bahamas then slowly recurve north and northeast off the United States East Coast and move out to sea. The Jacksonville, Florida, office of the weather bureau issued a warning on September 19 that a hurricane might hit Florida. Residents and authorities made extensive preparations, as they had endured the Labor Day Hurricane three years earlier. When the storm turned north, the office issued warnings for the Carolina coast and transferred authority to the bureau's headquarters in Washington. Both the Jacksonville and Washington, DC offices expected the cyclone to reach the ocean off North Carolina and then head harmlessly out to sea.At 9:00 am EDT on September 21, the Washington office issued northeast storm warnings north of Atlantic City and south of Block Island, Rhode Island, and southeast storm warnings from Block Island to Eastport, Maine. The advisory, however, underestimated the storm's intensity and said that it was farther south than it actually was. The office had yet to forward any information about the hurricane to the New York City office. At 10:00 am EDT, the bureau downgraded the hurricane to a tropical storm. The 11:30 am advisory mentioned gale-force winds but nothing about a tropical storm or hurricane.
That day, 28 year-old rookie Charles Pierce was standing in for two veteran meteorologists. He concluded that the storm would be squeezed between a high-pressure area located to the west and a high-pressure area to the east, and that it would be forced to ride up a trough of low pressure into New England. A noon meeting was called and Pierce presented his conclusion, but he was overruled by "celebrated" chief forecaster Charles Mitchell and his senior staff. In Boston, meteorologist E.B. Rideout told his WEEI radio listeners - to the skepticism of his peers - that the hurricane would hit New England. At 2:00 pm, hurricane-force gusts were occurring on Long Island's South Shore and near hurricane-force gusts on the coast of Connecticut. The Washington office issued an advisory saying that the storm was east-southeast of Atlantic City and would pass over Long Island and Connecticut. Re-analysis of the storm suggests that the hurricane was farther north and just from Fire Island, and that it was stronger and larger than the advisory stated.
Impact
The majority of the storm damage was from storm surge and wind. Damage was estimated at $308 million, making it among the most costly hurricanes to strike the U.S. mainland. It is estimated that, if an identical hurricane had struck in 2005, it would have caused $39.2 billion in damage due to changes in population and infrastructure.Approximately 600 people died in the storm on Long Island, New York, and in Connecticut and Rhode Island. An additional 708 people were reported injured.
In total, 4,500 cottages, farms, and other homes were reported destroyed and 25,000 homes were damaged. Other damages included 26,000 automobiles destroyed and 20,000 electrical poles toppled. The hurricane also devastated the forests of the Northeast, knocking down an estimated two billion trees in New York and New England.
Freshwater flooding was minimal, however, as the quick passage of the storm decreased local rainfall totals, with only a few small areas receiving over.
Over 35% of New England's total forest area was affected. In all, over 2.7 billion board feet of trees fell because of the storm, although 1.6 billion board feet of the trees were salvaged. The Northeastern Timber Salvage Administration was established to deal with the extreme fire hazard that the fallen timber had created. In many locations, roads from the fallen tree removal were visible decades later, and some became trails still used today. The New York, New Haven and Hartford Railroad from New Haven to Providence was particularly hard hit, as countless bridges along the Shore Line were destroyed or flooded, severing rail connections to badly affected towns such as Westerly, Rhode Island. Due to the lack of technology in 1938, Long Island residents were not warned of the hurricane's arrival, leaving no time to prepare or evacuate. " The winds reached up to, with waves surging to around high.
Yale and Harvard both owned large forests managed by their forestry departments, but both forests were wiped out by the hurricane. However, Yale had a backup forest at Great Mountain in northwestern Connecticut which was spared from the totality of the damages, and they were able to keep their forestry program running, which maintains operation today. Harvard's program, however, was reduced as a result.