2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election


The 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. Mary Peltola was elected in a 3-way race against former governor Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III in the election, becoming the first Alaska Native and woman to represent Alaska in the House.
The election was the first to use Alaska's new ranked-choice voting method, approved by voters in 2020. The winners of the top-four blanket primary advanced to the ranked-choice runoff election, but only three candidates competed. Peltola was declared the winner on August 31 after all ballots were counted. Peltola's victory was widely seen as an upset in a traditionally Republican state. She became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since 2008 and was sworn in on September 13.

Nonpartisan blanket primary

Candidates

Advanced to general election

Debates and forums

Polling

Results

General election

Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.

Predictions

Post-primary endorsements

Polling

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		RCV
count		Al
Gross
Sarah
Palin
Lora
Reinbold
Josh
Revak
Undecided
Change Research March 25–29, 2022728 ± 3.6%33%30%8%9%16%
Change Research March 25–29, 2022728 ± 3.6%233%30%–11%26%
Change Research March 25–29, 2022728 ± 3.6%335%35%––30%

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Al
Gross 		Sarah
Palin 		Undecided
Change Research March 25–29, 2022728 ± 3.6%40%42%19%

Al Gross vs. Josh Revak

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Al
Gross 		Josh
Revak 		Undecided
Change Research March 25–29, 2022728 ± 3.6%35%34%31%

Results

Aftermath and analysis

The results were praised by pundits and activists, with FairVote, a pro-RCV lobbying group, arguing the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system. Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation.
However, experts in social choice criticized the election procedure for its pathological behavior called a center squeeze. Begich was eliminated in the first round, despite being preferred by a majority of voters to each one of his opponents, with 53% of voters ranking him above Peltola. However, Palin spoiled the election by splitting the first-round vote, leading to Begich's elimination and costing Republicans the seat. The final winner, Mary Peltola, was not listed at all on most voters' ballots.
The election was also an example of a no-show paradox, where a voter's ballot has the opposite of its intended effect, with high Republican turnout by Palin supporters leading to a Democrat winning. Peltola won the race because of 5,200 ballots ranking her last, behind Palin and Begich. Similarly, the election was an example of negative responsiveness, where a candidate loses as a result of having too much support.
In the wake of the election, a poll found 54% of Alaskans, including a third of Peltola voters, supported a repeal of RCV. Despite this, a 2024 ballot measure to repeal the RCV system ultimately failed. Observers noted such pathologies would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well, leading some to suggest Alaska adopt a rule without similar behavior.