Upset (competition)
An upset occurs in a competition, frequently in electoral politics or sports, when the party popularly expected to win is defeated by an underdog whom the majority expects to lose, defying the conventional wisdom. It is often used in reference to beating the betting odds in sports, or beating the opinion polls in electoral politics.
Origin
The meaning of the word "upset" has long included "an overthrowing or overturn of ideas, plans, etc.", from which the sports definition almost surely derived. "Upset" also once referred to "a curved part of a bridle-bit, fitting over the tongue of the horse",, but even though the modern sports meaning of "upset" was first used far more for horse races than for any other competition, there is no evidence of a connection.In 2002, George Thompson, a lexicographic researcher, used the full-text online search capabilities of The New York Times databases to trace the usage of the verb to upset and the noun upset. The latter was seen in usage as early as 1877.
Examples of upsets
Sports
Below is a selection of major upsets from a variety of popular sports around the world. It is not meant to be comprehensive, merely representative.American football
- Heading into the 2007 college football season, the Michigan Wolverines were ranked as the pre-season Number 5 team, and among the favorites for that year's BCS National Championship. As an early season tune-up game, Michigan had booked the lower division Appalachian State Mountaineers for their first game of the season. The Mountaineers surprised the football world by leading 28–17 at the half. Though Michigan clawed their way back to lead 32–31 late into the fourth quarter, the Mountaineers kicked a field goal with 26 seconds left in the game to take the lead 34–32. Michigan managed to use only 20 seconds of game time to drive the ball down to the App State 27-yard line, and as time was expiring the Mountaineers' Corey Lynch blocked a Michigan field goal attempt to secure the upset for App State. The game marked only the second time, to that point, that a lower-division school had beaten a top-division AP-ranked team.
- Howard University, a FCS team, entered as a 45-point road underdog against UNLV and stunned the Rebels 43–40 in Las Vegas. By point-spread standards, Howard pulled off the biggest upset in modern college football history.
- In Super Bowl III, the senior National Football League was playing their third interleague championship game against the upstart American Football League. The NFL had won the prior two matchups without much difficulty, and it looked poised to do so again, as the Baltimore Colts, with a 13–1 record, behind quarterback Earl Morrall, who led the league in touchdown passes that season and was named NFL Most Valuable Player. The team also had several future Hall of Fame players on the roster, including quarterback Johnny Unitas, relegated to a back-up role following an early-season injury, tight end John Mackey, as well as a defense led by perennial all-pro Bubba Smith. The New York Jets were led by Joe Namath at quarterback, who earlier in the week had "guaranteed" victory against the Colts. Namath's top target, future Hall of Fame wide receiver Don Maynard, was hobbled by an injury, but Namath led the Jets on a run-focused attack that leaned heavily on fullback Matt Snell, who ran for 121 yards and scored the Jets' only touchdown. The Jets defense confounded Morrall, who had only six completions on 17 attempts, with three interceptions in the first half, including an interception to the Jets' Jim Hudson while Colts' star receiver Jimmy Orr, uncovered near the end zone, waved his hands to no avail. Colts' head coach Don Shula put the hobbled Unitas in the game in the second half, and despite a late game touchdown, lost the game 16–7.
Association football
- The English FA Cup – a knockout tournament which is randomly drawn for each round – is mythologised for frequent occurrences of "giant-killing"; on occasion, "non-League" teams have even beaten teams in the Premier League, or its predecessor, the First Division., the largest upset in terms of league position was the National League North's Macclesfield beating the Premier League team and title holders Crystal Palace 2–1 in the third round of the 2025–26 FA Cup; the teams were separated by five leagues and 117 league positions at the time of the match.
- Leicester City F.C., an English football club, were crowned champions of the 2015–16 Premier League. The club had narrowly avoided the relegation the previous season by finishing 14th and being in the bottom of the table the most part of the season. At the beginning of the season, bookmakers had given Leicester City odds of 5000/1 against them winning the league. It was the first English title in their history.
- A major upset in Spanish football was the Alcorconazo, when in the first leg of a 2009–10 Copa del Rey AD Alcorcón won over Real Madrid 4–0. Real Madrid is one of the largest clubs in Spanish football and the world while Alcorcón team played in the third-tier Segunda División B. Because Real Madrid won the second leg only 1–0, Alcorcón advanced victorious to the next round. The half-time substitution of Guti when the score was 3–0 and when he was booked before was another topic in the Spanish press because of words exchanged between the player and his coach, Manuel Pellegrini.
- In Soviet football, there existed a prize that, among others, was awarded at the end of the Soviet Top League season to the team within the league that performed the best against the league's top three finishers. First awarded in 1976, it was known as the "Thunder of the elites" or "Danger of the elites". The award was presented by the "Moskovskaya Pravda" newspaper supplement, known as "Sportivnaya Moskva".
Baseball
- The 1906 World Series looked to be one of the most lopsided matchups in World Series history, as the National League powerhouse Chicago Cubs, with a record of 116–36, represented the best winning percentage in modern Major League Baseball history. They faced off against their cross-town rivals, the Chicago White Sox, who finished with the American League pennant having a record of 93–58. The White Sox were dubbed the "hitless wonders" as their.230 team batting average was not only the worst batting average by a team to win their league pennant, it was the worst overall batting average in all of Major League Baseball that season. Buoyed by a pitching staff that held the Cubs to a below.200 batting average for the series, the White Sox showed an uncharacteristic surge of batting prowess in games 5 and 6 with 16 runs on 26 hits over the two games to claim the World Series crown four games to two in what has been called the biggest upset in MLB history.
Basketball
- In the 1985 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament, the Georgetown Hoyas had won the previous national championship, and looked poised to win their second straight, as they entered the 1985 national championship as the defending national champion with the Number 1 overall seed, as well as the Number 1 seed in the East Region, posting a record of 35–2, including a Big East tournament title. Their opponent and Big East rival, the Number 8 seed Villanova Wildcats, entered the national championship with a 24–10 record. Villanova defeated Georgetown, 66–64, in what has been considered one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament history. As of 2022, this is the only time an 8th-seeded team has won the NCAA tournament and the 1984–85 Villanova team remains the lowest-seeded team to win the NCAA tournament.
- The Stanford Cardinal entered the 1998 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament with the Number 1 seed in the West Region, posting a record of 21–5, including a Pac-10 regular season title. Their opponent, the Number 16 seed Harvard Crimson, entered the tournament with a 22–4 record and an Ivy League regular season title. Before this match, no Number 1 seed had ever fallen to a Number 16 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1994. Harvard defeated Stanford, 71–67, in what has been considered the biggest upset in NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament history. 20 years later, a Number 16 seed had beaten a Number 1 seed in men's tournament.
- The Virginia Cavaliers entered the 2018 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament with the Number 1 overall seed, as well as the Number 1 seed in the South Region, posting a record of 31–2, including both an ACC regular season title and ACC tournament title. Their opponent, Number 16 seed UMBC, entered the tournament with a 24–10 record and an America East tournament title. Before this match, no Number 1 seed had ever fallen to a Number 16 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. UMBC defeated Virginia, 74–54, in what has been considered the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history.
- The Purdue Boilermakers entered the 2023 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament with the Number 1 seed in the East Region, posting a record of 29–5, including both a Big Ten regular season and tournament title. Their opponent, Number 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, entered the tournament with a 20–15 record after an 84–61 win over Texas Southern in the First Four. Despite a 67–66 loss in the Northeast Conference tournament championship game to the NEC regular season champion Merrimack Warriors, Fairleigh Dickinson received an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament as the NEC tournament runners-up, while the NEC tournament champion Merrimack was ineligible for the NCAA tournament due to a 4-year transition from Division II. Closed as 23.5-point underdogs, Fairleigh Dickinson shocked Purdue 63–58 to become the second Number 16 seed to beat a Number 1 seed in NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament history.
- Entering the first round of the 2007 NBA Playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks had the best record in all of NBA at 67–15, six games up on second place, while their first round opponent, the Golden State Warriors, had a 42–40 record and had only qualified for the tournament on the last day of the regular season, having needed to win all of their last five games just to qualify. Dallas was captained by power forward Dirk Nowitzki, who was in the midst of a Hall-of-Fame career that would feature 14 all star appearances, and supported by other star players such as Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris, and Josh Howard. Golden State had completely revamped their team mid-season, including two starters, who arrived in January in a blockbuster 8-player deal with the Indiana Pacers. Baron Davis was the unquestioned star of the playoff run, as he dominated the Mavericks, averaging 25.3 points, 6.5 assists, and 2.9 steals per game, as the Warriors would knock off the Mavericks four games to two.
- Entering the second round of the 2020 NBA Playoffs, the Los Angeles Clippers, under the guidance by championship head coach Doc Rivers, were widely regarded as frontrunners for the championship. Armed with star talents like Kawhi Leonard, who came off a championship win with the Toronto Raptors, and Paul George, a previous MVP candidate and first-team All-Defensive player, and defensive guard Patrick Beverley, the Clippers had high expectations. Their deep bench, featuring Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams, added to their championship aspirations, while their strong defensive prowess further solidified their position. However, the Denver Nuggets, guided by the dynamic duo of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić, emerged as formidable challengers. Murray's explosive scoring prowess, highlighted by a remarkable 40-point performance in Game 7, combined with Jokić's extraordinary playmaking and versatility as a center, were instrumental in fueling the Nuggets' remarkable comeback. This unforeseen development showcased the Nuggets' remarkable resilience and their strategic acumen in exploiting the Clippers' defensive weaknesses. In contrast, the Clippers' star players faltered significantly in the crucial Game 7, with Leonard managing only 14 points and a 6-of-22 shooting performance, and George contributing a mere 10 points at a shooting efficiency of 25%, including a notable miss that hit the side of the backboard during a 3-point attempt. Notably, both stars were unable to score in the 4th quarter. This series of events culminated in a stunning reversal, as the Clippers lost their dominant 3–1 series lead, becoming the 12th team in NBA history to do so. The Nuggets, driven by the exceptional performances of Murray and Jokić, clinched a victory in what became one of the most unexpected and memorable upsets in recent NBA playoff history.
- Entering the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, the Milwaukee Bucks earned the inaugural Maurice Podoloff Trophy as the NBA's best regular season team with a 58–24 record, while their first round opponent, the Miami Heat, had a 44–38 record, had won their second straight Southeast Division, had qualified for the playoffs for the fourth straight year, and earned the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. Despite losing to the Atlanta Hawks 116–105 in the first play-in tournament game, Miami bounced back and defeated the Chicago Bulls 102–91 in the final play-in tournament game. Milwaukee was coached by Mike Budenholzer, who is a two-time NBA Coach of the Year and won the NBA championship in 2021. The Miami Heat knocked off the Milwaukee Bucks in five games, in what has been considered one of the biggest upsets in NBA playoffs history. This made the Heat the first number 8 seed to win a playoff series after qualifying for the play-in tournament. This also made the Bucks the sixth number 1 seed to lose a playoff series in the opening round.