2016 United States Senate election in Illinois


The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as [United States Senate United States House of Representatives elections, 2016|elections, 2016|other elections] to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Prior to the election, incumbent senator Mark Kirk was considered to be the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2016 due to Illinois's heavy Democratic partisan balance; news networks and analysts widely expected a Democratic pickup.
Party primary elections were held on March 15, 2016. Kirk lost re-election to a second full term to Tammy Duckworth, the U.S. representative from Illinois's 8th congressional district and a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War. Duckworth became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Illinois since fellow Democrat Carol Moseley Braun in 1992. Despite his loss, Kirk outperformed Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 2 percent. This is the last time a senator from Illinois lost re-election.

Background

In 2010, Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.
Kirk suffered a severe stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013. In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election, but there was speculation that he might retire, particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff. Republican Bruce Rauner was elected governor in 2014, and a possible scenario was that Kirk would resign early, allowing Rauner to appoint another Republican as the replacement. Potential replacements included U.S. representatives Bob Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie. In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.
Kirk was identified by The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, The Huffington Post, Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for re-election in 2016.
For the primary election, turnout was 41.94%, with 3,215,334 votes cast. For the general election, turnout was 68.39%, with 5,491,878 votes cast.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • James Marter, businessman

Removed from ballot

  • Elizabeth Pahlke, independent candidate for IL-02 in 2013

Withdrawn

  • Ron Wallace, investment advisor, conservative activist and economics professor

Declined

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Third party candidates

On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle, who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed, and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin were likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions.

Constitution Party (C) (write-in)

  • Chad Koppie, farmer and vice president of Kane County Regional Board of School Trustees

Libertarian Party (L)

  • Kent McMillen

Green Party (G)

Independent (I)

General election

Campaign

Kirk had multiple factors working against him, as no Republican had won an Illinois US Senate race during a presidential election year since 1972, and he had made a number of gaffes during the campaign. He had exaggerated his Iraq War record on his campaign website, and during a debate, Kirk made a racially charged remark about Duckworth's familial military background. Additionally, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was unpopular in Chicago and its suburbs, and Kirk refused to endorse or vote for him, instead writing in former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell. Kirk also had a mostly liberal voting record in the Senate, favoring gay marriage, an assault weapons ban, and he had voted against defunding and repealing portions of Obamacare in 2015. Due to these factors, Kirk alienated the Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters whom he had previously won over in his 2010 campaign. Unusually, the normally Republican-leaning editorial board of the Chicago Tribune endorsed Duckworth, as they believed that the health problems that Kirk had suffered as a result of his stroke made him a less effective senator. This election had been cited as historic, as both major party nominees had physical disabilities.

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
Mark
Kirk 		Tammy
Duckworth 		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkeyNovember 1–7, 20161,823± 4.6%39%56%—5%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 31 – November 6, 20161,505± 4.6%39%56%—5%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 28 – November 3, 20161,120± 4.6%40%54%—6%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 27 – November 2, 2016997± 4.6%40%55%—5%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 26 – November 1, 2016911± 4.6%39%55%—6%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 25–31, 20161,003± 4.6%38%57%—5%
Emerson CollegeOctober 27–30, 2016500± 4.3%36%54%5%5%
Loras CollegeOctober 26–27, 2016600± 4.0%34%42%6%18%
The Illinois Poll - Victory ResearchOctober 16–18, 20161,200± 2.8%39%50%3%8%
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)October 4–5, 2016600± 4.0%37%41%6%16%
Southern Illinois UniversitySept 27–Oct 2, 2016865± 3.3%34%48%8%10%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D)September 27–29, 2016600± 4.0%37%46%—17%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 19–20, 2016700± 3.6%39%41%11%9%
Loras CollegeSeptember 13–16, 2016600± 4.0%36%41%—22%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D)August 1–4, 2016800± 3.5%37%44%—19%
The Illinois Poll - Victory ResearchJuly 14–16, 20161,200± 2.8%37%46%4%12%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D)July 11–14, 2016800± 3.5%38%40%—22%
Basswood Research (R)July 11–12, 2016800± 3.5%42%40%—18%
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)March 30–31, 2016600± 4.0%40%43%—17%
End Citizens UnitedSeptember 10–14, 2015948± 3.2%41%45%—14%
Public Policy PollingJuly 20–21, 2015931± 3.2%36%42%—22%
Ogden & FryJune 23, 2015598± 4.1%27%44%—29%
We Ask AmericaDecember 18, 20141,003± 3.0%45%46%—9%

with Andrea Zopp

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Kirk 		Andrea
Zopp 		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 20–21, 2015931± 3.2%38%29%—32%

with Lisa Madigan

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Kirk 		Lisa
Madigan 		Undecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 22–25, 2013557± 4.2%41%41%19%

with Michelle Obama

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Kirk 		Michelle
Obama 		Undecided
Gravis MarketingMarch 21–22, 2014806± 3.0%47%42%11%
Public Policy PollingNovember 26–28, 2012500± 4.4%40%51%9%

with Pat Quinn

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Kirk 		Pat
Quinn 		Undecided
We Ask AmericaDecember 18, 20141,003± 3.0%55%36%9%

Results

The result was a landslide victory for Tammy Duckworth. Pre-election polling showed Kirk would be easily defeated by Duckworth, and the polls were proven right when Duckworth was declared the winner quickly after polls closed in Illinois. Duckworth performed extremely well in the heavily populated and strongly Democratic Cook County, home of Chicago. Duckworth also did well in Champaign, East St. Louis and Carbondale. Kirk did do well in rural parts of the state, but it was nowhere near enough to offset his weakness in the Chicago metropolitan area. The Chicago 'collar counties' — among them Kirk's home county of Lake County — previously voted for Kirk, but easily flipped to Duckworth. Duckworth was sworn in at 12:00 P.M. EST on January 3, 2017. The Libertarian and Green candidates polled well, winning three and two percent of the vote respectively.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Duckworth won 12 of 18 districts, including one that elected a Republican.
DistrictKirkDuckworthRepresentative
21%74%Bobby Rush
19%77%Robin Kelly
38%56%Dan Lipinski
16%77%Luis Gutierrez
31%64%Mike Quigley
50%44%Peter Roskam
15%82%Danny K. Davis
38%56%Tammy Duckworth
38%56%Raja Krishnamoorthi
33%63%Jan Schakowsky
42%53%Robert Dold
42%53%Brad Schneider
37%57%Bill Foster
43%52%Mike Bost
47.2%46.9%Rodney Davis
51%42%Randy Hultgren
62%33%John Shimkus
54%39%Adam Kinzinger
46%48%Cheri Bustos
59%35%Darin LaHood