2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election


The 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. It occurred concurrently with a Senate election in the state, [2018 United States House of Representatives 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin|elections in Wisconsin|elections] to the state's U.S. House seats, and various other elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker sought a third term, and was challenged by Democratic candidate and then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, as well as Libertarian Phil Anderson and independent Maggie Turnbull. Evers, along with his running mate Mandela Barnes, managed to defeat Walker and Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in a closely fought and widely watched race, ending the state's Republican trifecta.
The result was considered "too close to call" on election night, with Walker and Evers being separated by a mere few hundred votes for much of the night as counties reported their results. Shortly after midnight on November 7, Milwaukee County reported around 46,000 uncounted absentee ballots. From those ballots, Evers received 38,674 votes, or 84% of the total, and Walker 7,181, giving Evers a narrow lead. The race was called for him shortly after.
Wisconsin was the only state in the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle to elect a Democratic governor while voting more Republican than the national average. With a margin of 1.1%, this election was also the second-closest race of the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Florida. Walker was one of two Republican incumbent governors to be defeated for re-election in 2018, the other being Bruce Rauner in neighboring Illinois, who had lost decisively to J. B. Pritzker.
As previously mentioned, the deep purple state of Wisconsin hosted among the most competitive contests for governor in the nation, with Evers edging out Walker by just around 1.1%. He received 49.5% of the statewide vote to Walker's 48.4%, making it was the closest gubernatorial election in the state since 1964. It also marked the first time a Democrat won the state's governor's office since Jim Doyle was reelected in 2006. Despite a relatively small shift from the 2016 presidential election, in which Donald Trump narrowly and shockingly flipped the state, to this one, Evers carried seven counties that were won by Trump two years prior, those being Columbia, Crawford, Grant, Kenosha, Richland, Sauk, and Vernon counties.
In comparison to the last gubernatorial race in 2014, both candidates improved their raw vote shares; Walker received around 35,000 more votes than he did in 2014, while Evers received over 200,000 more votes than that of Mary Burke, the Democratic nominee in the last election who ultimately lost to Walker by around 5.7%. That said, Evers' victory was significantly lower than that of Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the concurrent Senate election, in which she was reelected by a double-digit margin in an impressive display of ticket-splitting.
Evers' victory came amidst key Democratic victories in other statewide races held concurrently, including pickups in the state's Attorney General and State Treasurer races and a solid reelection for Democrat Doug La Follette in the state's Secretary of State race.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Democratic primary

Governor

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

An asterisk denotes that a candidate withdrew before the primary but remains on the ballot.

Lieutenant governor

Mandela Barnes, a former state representative from Milwaukee, defeated opponent Kurt Kober by a 2 to 1 margin for the nomination, becoming the first African American to be nominated by a major party for a Wisconsin gubernatorial ticket.

Candidate

Nominee
  • Mandela Barnes, former state representative, and candidate for state senate in 2016
    Eliminated in primary
  • Kurt J. Kober, businessman

Libertarian primary

Governor

Nominee

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

  • Patrick Baird, U.S. Navy veteran

Green primary

Governor

Nominee

  • Michael White

Withdrew

  • Nick De Leon, pastor

Lieutenant governor

Nominee

  • Tiffany Anderson

Independent candidates

Governor

Lieutenant governor

  • Wil Losch, Turnbull's running mate

General election

Despite the fact that Scott Walker had won three prior races for governor in 2010, 2012, and 2014 by fairly comfortable margins, his bid for a third term was complicated by rising unpopularity due to his policies concerning public education and infrastructure. Walker also faced backlash for a deal his administration made with Taiwanese company Foxconn in 2017 to create jobs in the state in exchange for around $4.5 billion in taxpayer subsidies. In 2018, the deal resulted in around $90 million of funding for roads being diverted to a stretch of I-94 that was set to be near a future Foxconn plant from the rest of state. The poor condition of many roads around the state as well as the lack of work being done to redo them prompted a campaign where potholes were being labeled as “Scott”-holes.
Walker's approval ratings were hobbled further by the unpopularity of Republican U.S. President Donald Trump in Wisconsin. Walker himself sounded the alarm on this several times in early 2018 after Democrats won two special elections to the Wisconsin State Senate in typically Republican districts and an election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. In April 2018, Walker warned that Wisconsin was "at risk of a blue wave" in November. The Walker campaign generally focused on promoting the popular parts of his record, such as a freeze on tuition at public universities and record low unemployment.
The result was expected to be close, with a record $93 million spent on the race by the two major campaigns and special interest groups from in and out of the state. In the end, Walker was ultimately defeated by Democrat Tony Evers, who garnered a slightly more than 1% margin of victory, as Democrats swept every statewide race up for election.

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Tony
Evers 		Phil
Anderson 		OtherUndecided
Research Co.November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%44%45%–3%9%
Emerson CollegeOctober 29–31, 2018604± 4.1%46%51%–2%1%
Marquette UniversityOctober 24–28, 20181,154 LV± 3.2%47%47%3%–0%
Marquette UniversityOctober 24–28, 20181,400 RV± 3.0%47%44%5%–2%
IpsosOctober 12–18, 20181,193± 3.0%45%48%–2%5%
Marquette UniversityOctober 3–7, 2018799 LV± 3.9%47%46%5%–1%
Marquette UniversityOctober 3–7, 20181,000 RV± 3.6%47%43%7%–2%
Marist CollegeSeptember 30 – October 3, 2018571 LV± 4.8%42%50%3%2%3%
Marist CollegeSeptember 30 – October 3, 2018571 LV± 4.8%43%53%–1%3%
Marist CollegeSeptember 30 – October 3, 2018781 RV± 4.1%42%49%3%3%4%
Marist CollegeSeptember 30 – October 3, 2018781 RV± 4.1%43%52%–1%3%
IpsosSeptember 14–24, 20181,109± 3.0%43%50%–3%4%
Marquette UniversitySeptember 12–16, 2018614 LV± 4.4%44%49%6%–1%
Marquette UniversitySeptember 12–16, 2018800 RV± 4.0%43%47%7%–2%
Public Policy Polling September 4–5, 2018726± 4.0%45%49%––6%
Suffolk UniversityAugust 18–24, 2018500± 4.4%44%46%2%1%7%
Marquette UniversityAugust 15–19, 2018601 LV± 4.5%46%46%6%–2%
Marquette UniversityAugust 15–19, 2018800 RV± 4.0%46%44%7%–3%
Public Policy PollingAugust 15–16, 2018596± 4.0%44%49%––7%
Emerson CollegeJuly 26–28, 2018632± 4.2%41%48%–5%7%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018906± 3.8%41%54%–<1%5%
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018800± 4.0%48%44%––5%
Public Policy Polling May 9–10, 2018644± 3.9%45%49%––6%

with Kelda Roys

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Kelda
Roys 		Undecided
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018800± 4.0%48%40%7%

with Matt Flynn

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Matt
Flynn 		Undecided
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018400± 5.6%46%42%10%

with Mike McCabe

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Mike
McCabe 		Undecided
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018400± 5.6%44%42%9%

with Mahlon Mitchell

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Mahlon
Mitchell 		Undecided
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018400± 5.6%45%41%11%

with Josh Pade

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Josh
Pade 		Undecided
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018400± 5.6%49%36%11%

with Paul Soglin

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Paul
Soglin 		Undecided
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018400± 5.6%48%39%8%

with Kathleen Vinehout

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Kathleen
Vinehout 		Undecided
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018400± 5.6%48%39%9%

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy PollingOctober 17–18, 20171,116± 2.9%43%48%8%

with Andy Gronik

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Andy
Gronik 		Undecided
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018400± 5.6%46%41%11%

with Dana Wachs

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Walker 		Dana
Wachs 		Undecided
Marquette UniversityJune 13–17, 2018400± 5.6%49%38%9%

Results

Evers won the election by a 1.09% margin.

Results by county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Walker won five of eight congressional districts.
DistrictWalkerEversRepresentative
54%44%Paul Ryan
28%70%Mark Pocan
48%50%Ron Kind
24%74%Gwen Moore
61%37%Jim Sensenbrenner
57%41%Glenn Grothman
57%41%Sean Duffy
56%42%Mike Gallagher

Aftermath

Despite the close result, Scott Walker was unable to request a recount due to a law he had signed himself two years prior, which requires the margin of difference to be within 1%.

Lame duck legislative session

Early in December 2018, a special legislative session was called by Walker to pass a series of bills to limit the powers of Governor-elect Evers, as well as incoming Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul, who had defeated incumbent Brad Schimel in the concurrent Attorney General election.
Other bills being considered included restrictions on early voting and the passage of Medicaid work requirements, which Walker had previously held off on due to the election. A similar law restricting early voting that was passed several years prior had been ruled as unconstitutional.
The bills were widely denounced by Democrats and others as a "power grab." Representative Gwen Moore described the move as a "coup" that "hijacked the voters' will." Walker and other Republicans meanwhile argued that the bills were necessary ”checks on power” and that they did not actually strip any real powers from the executive. Lawsuits were filed by Evers and various labor unions almost immediately after Walker signed the bills into law.