Somali Civil War (2009–present)
The ongoing phase of the Somali Civil War began in 2009 and is concentrated in southern and central Somalia, primarily between the forces of the Federal Government of Somalia, assisted by African Union peacekeeping forces, and the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab, which pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2012.
During the insurgency that followed the 2006 Ethiopian invasion of Somalia, al-Shabaab rose to prominence and made major territorial gains. Several weeks before the end of the military occupation, Islamist insurgents had seized most of the south and Transitional Federal Government was on the verge of collapse. In early 2009, Ethiopian troops withdrew from Somalia and former Islamic Courts Union leader Sharif Ahmed was elected president TFG, marking a new phase of the civil war. Al-Shabaab and allied Islamist groups continued fighting against the new TFG and the African Union mission throughout 2009 and 2010, weakening the frail TFG further.
By 2010, al-Shabaab reached its peak operational capacity as it absorbed other factions and began embracing drastic changes in the types of attacks they utilized. That year the group merged with Hizbul Islam and also carried out the Kampala bombings in response to Ugandan support for AMISOM.
In August 2011, al-Shabaab withdrew from Mogadishu and lost the significant control it had established in the city since the insurgency began in 2007. While the group continues to carry out operations in the capital, the 2011 withdrawal marked the end of a strong insurgent presence. The Kenyan invasion of southern Somalia aimed at al-Shabaab, Operation Linda Nchi, began in October 2011. Coinciding with the operation, the Ethiopian military redeployed into Somalia in large numbers for the first time since 2009.
In 2012 the FGS was formed, and it was becoming increasingly clear that a military victory would not resolve the conflict, and during that same year al-Shabaab pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda. In 2014, ENDF troops in Somalia were formerly integrated into AMISOM.
Despite the growing challenges, al-Shabaab still controls large swathes of territory in southern Somalia. It remains influential in many rural areas, and it now prioritizes guerrilla and terror attacks over territorial acquisitions. The Islamic State in Somalia and Hizbul Islam have also carried out attacks against both factions. In 2013 Hizbul Islam renounced violence against the government, but as of 2023, ISS remains active in northern Somalia. In 2023, the Las Anod conflict broke out in the northern part of Somalia between SSC-Khatumo and the Somaliland Army.
Background
Established in 2004, the internationally recognized Transitional Federal Government's in Somalia was waning until the United States-backed 2006 invasion by the Ethiopian National Defense Force, which drove out the Islamic Courts Union from power. Following this defeat, the ICU splintered into several different insurgent factions.Emergence of the insurgency
In early 2007, many Somalis rallied behind an insurgency which aimed to expel the Ethiopian military occupation in Mogadishu. The Ethiopians were caught off guard by the scale and intensity of the emerging resistance, responding with bombardments of urban areas. Thousands of Ethiopian troops and Somalis had been killed during fierce fighting for Mogadishu. ENDF military losses had reached unsustainable levels by the end of 2007. In 2008 insurgent pressure intensified in the capital and across south-central Somalia, particularly in the Shabeelle, Jubba Valley, Bay, and Bakool regions. Skirmishes with ENDF/TFG forces soon morphed into a sustained insurgent offensive.The TFG and its Ethiopian backers had low public support. The government lacked legitimacy, capacity, and credibility, and refused to broaden its political base throughout 2007. Opposition figures were purged from parliament, leaving a narrow coalition that failed to advance any political transition or create institutions. The TFG was widely seen as corrupt, fractured and abusive. Al-Shabaab, former a youth militia under the ICU's military wing, emerged as an independent faction in early 2007. It gained significant combat experience and began governing territory for the first time in 2008. The Ethiopian invasion transformed the group from a fringe entity to a dominant insurgent force.
By 2008, most of the country had fallen under insurgent control, leaving the TFG on the brink of collapse. More than 80% of its police and army had deserted. The invasion failed to empower the TFG, which only controlled some parts of Mogadishu and its original 2006 capital of Baidoa by the end of 2008. The Ethiopian army withdrew with significant casualties and little to show for their efforts. The insurgency had achieved its primary goal of removing the Ethiopian military presence from most of Somalia by November 2008.
Ethiopian withdrawal and new TFG administration
As the Ethiopians withdrew from Somalia, tensions between the differing insurgent factions exacerbated. By this time most elements of the pre-invasion Islamic Courts had merged into one of the two wings of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia or had joined al-Shabaab, though some smaller factions continued operating independently under the ICU banner into 2009. A power-sharing deal was reached in Djibouti between the TFG and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's ARS-D faction in late 2008. Al-Shabaab, which had broken away from the moderate Islamists, rejected the agreement and expanded its control, later joined by Hizbul Islam—a coalition of insurgent groups from the Ethiopian military occupation era, including the ARS-Asmara faction led by Hassan Dahir Aweys. Meanwhile, Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'ah, backed by Ethiopia and aligned with the TFG, fought and successfully repelled al-Shabaab advances in Galguduud.Rather than eliminating jihadist activity in Somalia, the invasion significantly expanded it, with al-Shabaab's ranks growing from around 600 to several thousand fighters by the time of Ethiopia's 2009 withdrawal. Between 2004 and 2008, Ethiopia—then the TFG's main ally—trained thousands of Somali troops, but over 10,000 deserted or joined the insurgency. After Ethiopia's 2009 withdrawal, AMISOM assumed responsibility for rebuilding the army, which still lacked a functional chain of command.
After parliament took in 275 officials from the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia, ARS leader Sheikh Ahmed was elected TFG President on 31 January 2009. Since then, the al-Shabaab radical Islamists have accused the new TFG President of accepting the secular transitional government and have continued the civil war since he arrived in Mogadishu at the presidential palace in early February 2009.
Timeline
2009–10: War begins
also vowed to fight the government. On 4 February 2009, four Islamist groups, including Hassan Dahir Aweys' Eritrean branch of the ARS merged and created the group Hisbi Islam, to oppose the new government of Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. The new TFG President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed arrived in Mogadishu as president for the first time on 7 February 2009. The al-Shabaab and other radical Islamists began firing at the new TFG president hours later. They accused the new President of accepting the secular transitional government.On 8 February, heavy fighting broke out in southern Mogadishu. al-Shabaab leader Sheikh Mukhtar Robow met with Sharif Ahmed for peace talks during his visit to Mogadishu, while Omar Iman rejected the president. During these negotiations, Sharif Ahmed said that he would be prepared to enforce Sharia Law in Somalia, which was the radical groups' main demand. However, Sheikh Mukhtar Robow, a former al-Shabaab spokesman, denied having talked to Sharif Ahmed and vowed to continue fighting until his demands for Sharia Law were met. Sheikh Mukhtar Robow warned Nigeria against sending peace keepers to Somalia, as al-Shabaab view the AU peace keepers as occupying forces. An offensive was launched two days later by al-Shabaab to take the Bakool province. Government officials who had been ousted from Baidoa had been amassing troops in the city of Hudur and planning a major offensive to re-take Baidoa. Islamist forces attacked the province and reached the capital where they started a battle against government forces. In Galmudug, Clan militia took the town of Masagaway from al-Shabaab, while there was also fighting in Warsheekh.
The spokesman for al-Shabaab at the time, Sheikh Mukhtar Robow, rebuffed reports from several media outlets that a mutual agreement between him and newly elected president Sharif Ahmed was made. In his 12 February statement, he also added that he had no intention to contact the president on any matters, and that they would continue fighting against foreign troops and what he described as an "apostate" government. Al-Shabaab also vowed war against the new government. On 22 February, a double suicide bomb attack on an AU base in Mogadishu left 11 Burundian soldiers dead and another 15 wounded. Two days later, heavy fighting erupted in the city as TFG and AU forces attempted to retake the city from radical Islamist forces. The fighting lasted for two days and killed 87 people, including: 48 civilians, 15 insurgents and 6 TFG policemen. At the same time as the fighting raged in Mogadishu, al-Shabaab forces took the town of Hudor, to the northwest, in fighting that killed another 20 people: ten TFG soldiers, six insurgents and four civilians. On 28 February, it appeared that Hisbi Islam would sign a ceasefire with the Transitional Federal Government. However, by 1 March, it was clear that no ceasefire would be given, despite President Sharif Ahmed having agreed to proposals for a truce and having offered to accept the implementation of Sharia law but refused to move troops from civilian areas despite the Islamists doing so. al-Shabaab announced on 6 May that it would continue the war even if AMISOM withdrew. The Somali government, in turn, later announced an immediate blockade on airstrips and seaports under insurgent control to stop the flow of weapons reaching them.