Military dictatorship
A military dictatorship is a type of dictatorship where supreme power is held and exercised by the armed forces. Military dictatorships are usually led by the commander-in-chief of the military or the leading figure in military junta. They are most often formed by military coups or by the empowerment of the military through a popular uprising in times of domestic unrest or instability. The military nominally seeks power to restore order or fight corruption, but the personal motivations of military officers will vary.
Modern military dictatorship developed in Latin America during the 19th century, and it expanded in Europe during the early-20th century. It saw a resurgence during the Cold War, and new military dictatorships were established in Africa, Asia, and Latin America in the 1960s. Some scholars have asserted that the number of military dictatorships has declined since the end of the Cold War.
Formation
Formation process
Most military dictatorships are formed after a coup d'état has overthrown the previous government. These coups typically take place when there is a perceived threat to the military or its interests as an institution, including cuts to military funding or civilian interference in military affairs. Military officers have a vested interest in having increased pay and benefits while preventing political intervention in promotions, and failure to address these issues may cause interest in military-led regime change. These coups are most common in the developing world, where a lack of democracy often necessitates such events for changes in leadership.Not all dictatorships taken through military force are military dictatorships, for in many cases a civilian dictator will take power following a coup and relegate military officers. In other cases, a civilian leader will exceed the powers granted by a constitution with the backing of the military. In some cases, the military is invested with dictatorial powers during a popular uprising. The military is well-equipped to seek and maintain political power, as it is often more modernized than other institutions in a given country, with access to resources and training not available to civil leaders.
A regime can also be formed by an insurgency, or an informal group of militants that attempt to seize power in a government. When insurgents form a dictatorship, they are not constrained by formal military procedures, but their lack of organization can increase the likelihood of opposing factions developing within the group. Insurgencies sometimes grant military titles to their leaders, but they do not adopt the structure of a true military. Regimes created by insurgencies may or may not be recognized as military dictatorships.
Several justifications can be offered by military leadership for seizing power, including improper behavior of the civilian government, a threat of communist takeover, or disorder in politics. These justifications are often given for any formation of military rule, even if the personal motivations of the officers involve greed, ambition, factionalism, or ethnic conflict. An increase of the military budget is a common goal across regimes. As the military is expected to be apolitical, military dictators may consider themselves to be neutral parties who are better fit to maintain stability during times of political crisis. Military rulers will often justify their intervention as a way to protect the people from political repression or as a response to economic failure. In some cases, an active or former military officer will be asked to seize power as a last resort to end the rule of a worse government, though it is not necessarily the case that a military dictatorship brings about the promised improvement and stability.
Factors
The military's purpose in a given country may affect whether it attempts to seize power. International opponents may prompt stronger national defense. This makes the military more willing to comply with a civilian government as the civilian government is likely to provide for the military. When these opponents are neighboring countries that present territorial threats, however, it can weaken democracy and incentivize the creation of a stronger military. Both of these factors increase the likelihood of a military dictatorship. All of these factors are aggravated in countries with significant natural resources, as these provide an additional financial incentive for the military to seize power. Military dictatorships almost universally form in peacetime, with Kemalist Turkey being the only notable exception by 1980. The economic prosperity of a country does not necessarily indicate the likelihood of military dictatorship.The previous form of government is also a factor in whether a military dictatorship forms. Democracies are most at risk of becoming military dictatorships shortly after their formation. When a new democracy is formed, the government's institutions are fragile and civil government may not have established control over the military. This impending civilian control of the military provides further incentive for military officers to seize power in newly-formed democracies. Oligarchies prevent military dictatorships by maintaining an equilibrium, keeping the military strong enough to maintain the oligarchy while providing incentives to encourage loyalty.
The risk assessment process for military officers considering dictatorial rule is distinct from that of other potential dictators. Military officers engaging in a coup face lower risks compared to other attempts to establish dictatorships, as most officers are typically allowed to retain their positions if the dictatorship does not survive. Only the military dictator and the highest ranking officers face significant risk. Instead, officers in professionalized militaries will consider the risk to the military in its entirety rather than their individual risk, as institutional risk is much higher.
Some factors can mitigate the chance of a military dictatorship forming that can be implemented in regions where military dictatorships are common. Constitutional provisions can be enacted to enforce penalties for military officers involved in coups, paramilitaries may be created to act independently of the conventional military, military officers may be given positions in civil government, or the military may be reduced in size and resources. Such measures have had mixed success.
Stability
Duration
The duration and stability of military dictatorships vary considerably, even within a single region, and military dictatorships are generally less stable than other regimes. The average military dictatorship lasts only five years, and the average military dictator is only in power for three years. Military dictatorships struggle to build civilian bases of support through mass political participation or a partisan apparatus, which limits the ability for a regime to establish a stable long-term government. When military dictators are toppled, they are often succeeded by further military coups and new military dictators seizing power within the same regime. The most immediate threats to military dictators are the military officers that they depend on, making long term stability difficult.Individual military dictators become more secure as they spend more time in office, as they are able to shift power away from military institutions by creating civilian and paramilitary forces to keep them in check. Dictators that do not create these institutions are removed more quickly. Highly professional militaries with coherence and discipline benefit from sharing power between military officers, while less professional militaries often find it necessary to build support among the civilian government. Less professional militaries are less stable, meaning they are more prone to corruption and factionalism.
Causes of dissolution
Military dictatorships are unique among regime types in that those in power often do not wish to remain so. Many military officers will choose to end the military's involvement in politics if it appears to be having a negative effect on the military's cohesion, its legitimacy, or its interests. When politicization leads to factionalism, it can weaken the military's hold on power and discourage leaders from further political involvement. Military rulers are more likely to negotiate and relinquish power willingly than other dictators, as no opposing armed group exists to take power by force, and they typically have the option to return to military life. This allows the leadership to preserve the military as an institution rather than risk its destruction in civil conflict. The legitimacy of a military dictatorship is often contingent on the promise to step down once conditions have been established for a civilian government, and resistance can form against a regime that holds power beyond this point. A prosperous military dictatorship will see increasing calls to restore civilian government as the economy improves.Military dictatorships are most commonly dissolved following a poor performance in the opinion of elites, causing them to revoke their support for the regime. Civilian demonstrations and strikes rarely have a direct effect on military rule, but widespread public opposition creates opportunities for internal division, and military response against civilians can be destabilizing. Civilian use of force through armed insurgency can also destabilize a military dictatorship, although these are rare. Foreign influence is a common means to end military dictatorship, and powerful countries can end a military regime by exerting diplomatic and economic pressure. This commonly takes place when the dictatorship acts to harm the foreign government or engages in widespread human rights abuses. Foreign countries may also resort to military invasion to end the rule of a military dictator.