Historical polling for United States presidential elections
was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections. Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the election winner. However, there were some close elections that it missed, such as 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000 and 2016, and the likely voter numbers in 2012. The month section in the tables represents the month that the opinion poll was conducted in. D stands for the Democratic Party while R stands for the Republican Party. There were also some third parties included in some of these polls, such as the Dixiecrats and the Reform Party.
1936 United States presidential election
After predicting the winners in the previous five elections, The Literary Digest famously predicted that Alf Landon would win overwhelmingly based on mail-in cards sent in from their readers.On the other hand, George Gallup predicted a win by Roosevelt based on statistical random sampling, within 1.1% of the Literary Digest's results.
The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts was a very visible demonstration of the value of modern statistical methods. According to data collected in the Gallup poll, The Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias, rather than selection bias, as is commonly believed.
Incumbent President Roosevelt won because his New Deal programs were very popular among the American people, apart from the respondents to the Literary Digest poll. While Republican nominee Alf Landon claimed that the New Deal was too costly and ineffective, and that Roosevelt was slowly making the United States a dictatorship, these attacks did not gain much traction.
1940 United States presidential election
Throughout this campaign, Roosevelt promised that he would not bring the United States into any new wars if he was given another term and also promised to continue the New Deal. Willkie attacked Roosevelt for seeking a third term and accused him of trying to turn the United States into a dictatorship by refusing to leave office. However, Willkie's attacks gained little traction, and Roosevelt consistently led in all the polls and was reelected by a large margin.1944 United States presidential election
Roosevelt also actively campaigned in this election against his doctors' advice in order to counter Republican claims that he was close to death. Roosevelt maintained a consistent lead in the polls at all times and won a solid victory in this election due to the American successes in World War II and Roosevelt's popularity.1948 United States presidential election
| Month | Harry S. Truman % | Thomas E. Dewey % | Henry A. Wallace % | Strom Thurmond % |
| December 1947/January 1948 | 46% | 41% | 7% | |
| February/March | 39% | 47% | 7% | |
| April/May | ||||
| June/July | 38% | 49% | 6% | |
| June/July | 37% | 48% | 5% | |
| August/September | 37% | 48% | 4% | 2% |
| August/September | 36% | 49% | 5% | 3% |
| August/September | 39% | 47% | 3% | 2% |
| August/September | 39% | 47% | 3% | 2% |
| August/September | 40% | 46% | 4% | 2% |
| October | 45% | 50% | 4% | 2% |
| Actual result | 49.6% | 45.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4.6% | -4.9% | -1.6% | +0.4% |
While incumbent President Truman's popularity was low at the end of 1946, he was able to regain his popularity by attacking the "Do-Nothing" Republican Congress of 1947–1948 and tying Dewey to it, as well as energizing certain segments of the Democratic base through various actions such as ending segregation in the military and recognizing Israel. Gallup and other polling organizations failed to identify Truman's comeback and to predict his victory in the 1948 election.
1952 United States presidential election
Dissatisfaction with the Korean War, corruption and the threat of Communism allowed popular World War II hero Eisenhower to win the election in a huge landslide after consistently leading in the polls, mostly by large margins.1956 United States presidential election
After consistently leading in the polls by huge margins, popular incumbent President Eisenhower was easily reelected due to the economic prosperity at home and ending the Korean War abroad.1960 United States presidential election
The polls throughout this election always indicated a very close race. Incumbent Vice President Nixon initially led in the polls, but then suffered some problems which caused Kennedy to take the lead in the polls for most of the campaign. In the end, Kennedy won an extremely close victory over Nixon. According to the Congressional Review, Nixon won the popular vote.1964 United States presidential election
Incumbent President Johnson always maintained a huge lead in the polls due to massive popular sympathy following the assassination of John F. Kennedy, a good economy, lack of severe foreign problems and an effective campaign to portray Goldwater as a dangerous, out-of-touch extremist. Johnson won the election in a huge landslide as well.1968 United States presidential election
This campaign was always close according to the polls, but after the tumultuous 1968 Democratic Convention and the riots near it Nixon was able to establish a lead and consistently maintain it throughout the campaign. American Independent candidate George Wallace ran in opposition to civil rights and in support of segregation and thus got a lot of support in the South. Humphrey began catching up to Nixon in the polls late in the campaign, but he ran out of time and Nixon won a narrow victory in the election itself.1972 United States presidential election
Incumbent President Nixon was always able to maintain a huge lead over McGovern due to the economic recovery following the 1969–1970 recession and due to successfully portraying McGovern as a foreign policy lightweight and as a social radical. McGovern's campaign was also hurt by him having to change vice presidential candidates in the middle of the campaign, causing many people to question his judgement.1976 United States presidential election
Carter was able to open up a huge lead over incumbent President Ford due to dissatisfaction with Watergate, Ford's pardon of Nixon and the sluggish economy. Ford managed to close the gap near the end of the campaign by having some good debate performances among other things. However, Ford was hurt by his comment saying that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and he ran out of time to close the polling gap with Carter, thus allowing Carter to pull off a narrow victory on election day.1980 United States presidential election
Incumbent President Carter initially had a huge lead in the polls due to the rally-around-the flag effect of the Iranian hostage crisis and the perceived extremism of Reagan. The continuing hostage crisis and the poor economy hurt Carter and the prospect John B. Anderson running as an independent appealed to around 20% of Americans who saw Carter as a lesser evil to Reagan. As a result, Anderson took a third of Carter's support in the spring, but did not seem to hurt Reagan despite Anderson being a Republican. Carter would never recover this loss of support while Reagan would end up peeling around two-thirds of initial Anderson voters. This race remained close until near the end, when Reagan asked Americans if they were better off than they were four years ago. Afterwards, Reagan managed to win a huge landslide victory in the general election.1984 United States presidential election
Incumbent President Reagan led in all pre-election polls and was able to secure an easy victory over Mondale due to the improving economy and falling unemployment rate.1988 United States presidential election
Dukakis was able to open a huge lead in the initial polls. However, Vice President Bush's campaign successfully portrayed Dukakis as soft on crime and also used the good economy, Reagan's popularity and Bush's no new taxes pledge to close the gap with Dukakis in the polls and eventually open up a huge lead over Dukakis. Bush ended up winning the general election.1992 United States presidential election
In the spring and early summer, the polls fluctuated with incumbent President Bush and independent challenger Ross Perot trading the lead in the polls. However, Perot withdrew from the race in July and Clinton was able to open up a consistent lead in the polls from July onward by blaming Bush for the poor economy and promising that he would fix it. Perot returned to the race in September, but he was never able to recapture all his previous support and Clinton ended up winning the general election by a comfortable margin.1996 United States presidential election
Incumbent President Clinton held a comfortable lead in the polls throughout this entire election cycle due to the good economy and stable international situation. Clinton ended up winning the general election by a wide margin.2000 United States presidential election
This election was close throughout the whole campaign, since Gore was able to use the good economy to his advantage while also being hurt by perceptions of him as robotic and pompous. The Lewinsky scandal also might have hurt Gore, and helped Bush in the polls among voters who were concerned about moral values.Despite multiple court challenges by the Gore campaign, Bush won Florida, with the decision upheld by the Supreme Court, giving him the electoral college and the election.
2004 United States presidential election
This election was close throughout the entire campaign. Dissatisfaction with the Iraq War and with a sluggish economy helped Kerry. However, Bush accused Kerry of flip-flopping and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth accused Kerry of being unpatriotic. A decisive moment came a week before the election when Al-Qaeda released a video warning Americans not to re-elect Bush. Afterwards, Bush's poll ratings in decisive swing states gave him a comfortable lead. In the end, Bush managed to pull off a narrow victory in the general election.2008 United States presidential election
The campaign was close throughout the spring and summer, with Obama and McCain both trading leads. The economy went into a recession in December 2007, but initially Obama was hurt in the polls due to weak support from Hillary Clinton supporters. The Republicans also attacked Obama for being inexperienced and McCain got a temporary bump in the polls after he picked Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential nominee. However, the financial crisis allowed Obama to open up a consistent and comfortable lead in the polls in the beginning of October. Obama won the general election by a comfortable margin.2012 United States presidential election
Early on, President Obama and his campaign aired negative attack ads hammering Republican challenger Mitt Romney as an out-of-touch, plutocratic, wealthy job destroyer from his days as a corporate CEO at Bain Capital. Romney bounced back in the polls against the incumbent after strong performances in the primaries and because the economy was still recovering from the 2007–2009 recession.In April, after Obama publicly expressed his support of same-sex marriage and a story of Romney bullying a kid in high school perceived to be gay was published, Obama took larger leads in the polls, but Romney and the Republicans attacked Obama for falsely saying the economy was doing well, for welfare waivers and also China's unfair trade practices. Throughout much of the summer, May, July and August, with the exception of June, the polls stayed close as Romney made several "gaffes" on a foreign trip to Europe and Israel while visiting that month during the time of the 2012 Summer Olympics. Romney was also hurt by the release of a speech he delivered at a campaign fundraiser. In it, he suggested that 47 percent of Americans, who did not pay federal income taxes, would "vote for the President, no matter what," because they felt "entitled to health care, to food, to housing - you name it."
After the conventions, it was clear that Obama had the lead as he led in all polls from every major publication. However, after Obama's poor showing in the first debate, Romney took the lead and had the polls tied in early October, up to mid October. From mid-October onward, the Democrats regained their momentum. Obama won re-election by a relatively close margin in the popular vote, but by a large margin in the Electoral College.