Boeing New Midsize Airplane
The New Midsize Airplane, or New Midsize Aircraft, is a concept airliner proposed by Boeing to fill the middle of the market segment.
In 2015, Boeing determined the market was large enough to launch a new design. In 2017, multiple airlines expressed interest in a composite, seven-abreast twin-aisle with an elliptical cross-section. The new aircraft, which would likely have been named the Boeing 797, would be available in two versions: a 225-seater with range and a 275-seater with a range of. Third-party forecasts for this market varied from 2,000 to 4,000 aircraft, though Boeing expected the market demand to lie at the upper end of this range. At a projected price of $65–75 million, the NMA was expected to generate 30% more revenue than narrowbodies and have 40% lower trip costs than the widebodies it would have replaced. It would have been powered by a new turbofan from GE Aviation/CFM International or Pratt & Whitney, with a bypass ratio of 10:1 or more and an overall pressure ratio exceeding 50:1.
In January 2020, Boeing put the plans on hold and announced a clean-sheet reevaluation of the project, noting that it was focused on returning the 737 MAX to service and would be taking a new approach to future projects. By February 2021, the company appeared to have revived the project with plans for a shorter variant that could enter service by the late 2020s with a development cost of up to $25 billion. In June 2022, however, it announced that the development would not be pursued until new engines and development tools are mature.
History
2015
At Air Lease Corp. Steven F. Udvar-Házy believed that Boeing was planning to launch a more capable, all-new replacement for the Boeing 757 rather than a re-engined version. At the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading conference, he predicted it would be a Boeing 767-like, twin-aisle airplane capable of using runways such as those at New York LaGuardia. Boeing's VP of Marketing Randy Tinseth said the company focused on developing an aircraft with 20% more range and capacity than the 757-200. United Airlines consulted Airbus and Boeing about replacing its 757s and was waiting for Boeing's response, as Tinseth wanted to fill the gap between the 737 MAX and the 787.Before the 2015 Paris Air Show, sales chief John Wojick said Boeing had held discussions with customers and determined that the market was large enough to launch an all-new jet airliner, the first since the launch of the 787 Dreamliner in 2003. At the show, Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier estimated that Boeing would have to invest $10 billion to develop a 757 successor with 220 seats and a range of, corresponding to the capabilities stated by Boeing's vice president for product development Mike Sinnett. Vinay Bhaskara of Airways News said Boeing's middle of the market airliner would likely launch before 2020 and enter service in the early part of the following decade.
Boeing denied that the new aircraft would be an update to the Boeing 767, although a revised 767 could be a possible stopgap measure. Estimates suggested that developing and building a new aircraft could reach US$15 billion.
2016
In early 2016, Boeing's two major options remained a larger 737 MAX variant or an all-new 797 design. The MOM was the subject of a session of the 2016 International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading conference in Phoenix, Arizona where major worldwide sellers, buyers and financiers of commercial aircraft meet. Airbus sales chief John Leahy said the industry has no need for a new midmarket airplane, since the A321neo is already for sale.In July 2016, Boeing forecast demand for 4,000 to 5,000 midmarket aircraft, leaving a market for 2,000 to 3,000 after accounting for the Airbus A321neo and A330neo sales. It identified the market "sweet spot" for the NMA as being a 200 to 250-seat twin-aisle aircraft with more than range, but less expensive to operate than existing small twin aisles. The notional aircraft, which would enter service in the middle of the next decade, would need advanced high-bypass turbofans with higher pressure ratios. Boeing development resources were committed on the 777X, 787-10 and 737 MAX, whereas Airbus's R&D spending profile appeared to leave room for new development, but Airbus believed that the A321LR and A330neo were sufficient to address the segment.
2017
At the March 2017 ISTAT Americas conference, United Airlines' interest in the NMA was confirmed by chief financial officer Andrew Levy, who corroborated the assumption that it would be a twin-aisle aircraft with two variants, carrying 225 to 260 passengers with a range of. Multiple airlines expressed potential interest: Alaska Airlines, Emirates, and Delta Air Lines for transatlantic flights.The new airplane was expected to have seven-abreast seating, like the 767. The market favors single-aisle economics, and Boeing's challenge would be to achieve comparable hourly cost and price per seat while keeping twin-aisle capabilities. Competition to supply the engines would be intense, with Rolls-Royce expected to propose the UltraFan follow-on to its Advance engines, Pratt & Whitney offering a new iteration of its Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan, and CFM International also in the running.
To assess where the "middle of the market" lay, Flight Ascend Consultancy looked at existing twin-aisle aircraft with fewer than 260 seats and found that these offered an average of 234 seats and have an average flight distance of 2,670 nmi, with 60% of available seat miles below 4,000 nmi and 82% below 5,000 nmi. To be competitive, NMA pricing would have to be between the 787-8 and A330neo at $100–120 million and larger single-aisles at above $50 million; the 767-300ER in its heyday cost just over $70 million. An elliptical cross-section could combine a twin-aisle cabin with the reduced cargo space of a single-aisle jet to reduce aerodynamic drag and operating costs, but would need more complex carbon composites instead of a simple cylindrical metal fuselage.
Boeing relies on model-based systems engineering, already used in its defense and space businesses, to define customer needs and functionality early in the aircraft design process with an interdisciplinary approach. A systems architecture model feeds and interacts with analytic and verification models, and helps define the product to bound data management and control cost and schedule, and the constraints, interfaces and requirements. Engine integration defines takeoff and climb capability, aircraft noise and ETOPS range circumference and engine failure altitude.
At the June 2017 Paris Air Show, Boeing's aircraft development manager Mike Delaney confirmed the use of composites for the whole airframe, which would have a hybrid cross-section and bypass ratios above 10:1. If the NMA were to be launched in early 2019, its design would be completed in 2020, with fabrication in 2021–22, build in 2023, flight tests and certification in 2024 and introduction in 2025.
With the NMA planned for introduction no earlier than 2025, and the 787 being much larger, Boeing could conceivably restart passenger 767-300ER production to bridge the gap, with potential demand for 50 to 60 aircraft. In September, Boeing created a development program office, and in November named their company veteran and 777X chief project engineer Terry Beezhold, without a role yet. Its introduction could slip from 2024–25 to 2027, pushing the 737 replacement to after 2030.
On 20 December 2017, Washington Governor Jay Inslee formed a committee with Boeing labor unions and Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace ) and local government economic-development officials to lobby Boeing to build the NMA in Washington state. Boeing continued to estimate middle-of-the-market demand at between 2,000 and 4,000 airliners over 20 years, stating in September 2017 that it was closer to 4,000, while Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce plc and Leeham Co. think it likely to lie between 2,000 and 2,500; Airbus puts the figure at about 2,000 aircraft, not enough to justify a new $15bn development program for aircraft to be sold for $55m to $75m each.
2018
In early 2018, United saw the NMA reach the market in eight to ten years. GE Aviation expected a launch decision in 2018 in order to enter service on target in the mid-2020s. Boeing was in "active" talks with about 50 potential customers and had defined two main versions: a 225-seat model with a range and a 275-seat version with a range.Delta Air Lines hoped to be a launch customer for the NMA, which would replace its 757 and 767 fleets. In February 2018, Delta operated 757s and 767s with average ages of 15 to 22 years. Boeing's VP Marketing Randy Tinseth was confident its forecast of 4,000 aircraft can be met, despite others seeing the market as between 2,000 and 2,500, because the NMA would be able to change airline networks in the same way that the 787 enabled 170 new routes to be opened since 2011. Solid production costs and sales forecasts would be required to convince the Boeing board to commit to its development. Avolon saw a market for 3,500 to 4,000 airliners. At the 2018 Farnborough Airshow, GE Aviation expressed concern as to whether the size of the market was large enough to justify the investment of developing a new engine for the jet.
The NMA was targeted to achieve a 30% economic improvement over the Boeing 757/767. Tinseth said the NMA would generate 30% more revenue than narrowbodies and have 40% lower trip costs compared to the widebodies it would replace. Within its range, it would be significantly more economical than the A330neo, severely testing its sales if Boeing could keep NMA prices in the $70m range. The target sale price for the NMA was believed to be between $65m and $75m. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary, kept informed by Boeing, said its seat cost would be substantially higher than the 737 MAX.
The conceptual design released in early 2018 had a 737 MAX-style tail cone, large 787/777X-sized cabin windows, a 757/767/777-style windscreen, a 767-200 door arrangement and short engine inlets. As the A320/A330 investment has been amortized, the A321LR or A330neo could be offered at a lower cost; the NMA would have to offer notably lower fuel and maintenance cost. Airbus could react with an A321 stretch or an all-new design, and could use a new 50,000 lbf engine.
As recent all-new designs took between 88 and 101 months between the authority to offer and the introduction, late 2018 to early 2019 launch would have implied a 2026 service entry. At this time, existing airliners over 30 years old will have been replaced by current models, leaving 900 aircraft aged from 15 to 25 years to be replaced: 420 A321s, 270 A330-200s, 90 757s and 130 767s. The largest operator of these 15-to-25-year-old mid-market types is American Airlines with over 80, followed by China Southern then Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Air China and Turkish Airlines with less than 40. In June the NMA-6X was defined as a 228-passenger, airliner and the NMA-7X would seat 267 in two classes over.
ICF International saw a market of 3,000–3,500 over 20 years with the NMA sold for $75–80 m, while Collateral Verifications believed in a 1,000–1,500 market and an $80–90 m price; for Flightglobal's Ascend, 1,500 NMAs could have been delivered for $67–82 m each between 2025 and 2040 if its size was right, and Oriel Consult expected a $70–80 m price. For Steven F. Udvar-Házy, a decision should be made by mid 2019, with two potential engines derived from existing units. Boeing continued to assess the market as 4,000-5,000 aircraft and was working towards a 2019 decision too, while taking measures to protect a 2025 introduction into service.
According to the French National Aerospace Research Center, ONERA, a cylindrical seven or eight-abreast twin-aisle has 20% more fuselage drag in cruise than a six-abreast, single-aisle airplane of the same seat capacity. This is significant because fuselage drag is one-third of total drag. However, an elliptical widebody can have an equivalent drag due to a smaller wetted area. Also, a twin-aisle is more comfortable and has faster turnarounds than a single-aisle. A cylindrical section is the simplest way to cope with the cabin pressurization's hoop stress while an elliptical section is reinforced and heavier.
In October 2018, analysts from Sanford C. Bernstein, Morgan Stanley and Canaccord Genuity were convinced Boeing would launch the project. Boeing's Randy Tinseth stated an almost unanimous preference for better economics through weight savings rather than the heavier structure to carry widebody containers.